ATL: ARTHUR - Post-Tropical

[TheStormExpert]

Nothing more than a sharp trough axis at the moment.

 https://twitter.com/hurrtrackerapp/status/1261095647140347905

[Ken711]

Levi Cowan's take on a potential "Arthur" named storm.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nOPPJW-Qa5k

[Aric Dunn]

looky looky..... WNW wind.. Surface circ is likely closed.. just the beginning of course.

[Incident_MET]

I wouldn’t necessarily assume that nw wind is due to large scale influences. It may simply be a sea breeze.

[Ubuntwo]

Nothing more than a sharp trough axis at the moment.

https://twitter.com/hurrtrackerapp/status/1261095647140347905

While it's probably not closed, this "data" is just the GFS in a pretty layout. Not really reliable

[Aric Dunn]

I wouldn’t necessarily assume that nw wind is due to large scale influences. It may simply be a sea breeze.

True. though given the surrounding surface obs, meso analysis, radar ( although looking at about 8k) the location of the vort from earlier projected out on its cyclonic loop, does line up..

also I have been watching this particular surface ob all afternoon through the earlier sea breeze that sparked tstorms that were moving west to east and the outflow boundaries from those t-storms.

if it were to be a sea breeze it would have had a component with the prevailing winds which are out of the east ENE.

for this to be wnw at sea level there is likely a weak surface reflection to all the 850 to 925 mb vorticity..

[Aric Dunn]

Nothing more than a sharp trough axis at the moment.

https://twitter.com/hurrtrackerapp/status/1261095647140347905

While it's probably not closed, this "data" is just the GFS in a pretty layout. Not really reliable

yes of course.. though it is based off of surrounding obs and data. not 100% but if you cant rely on initialized data then how can you rely on the remainder of the forecast period from the model ?

[Kat5]

Starting to get some much needed rain here in Broward from 90L. Hoping for another 2 inches to end this drought.

[Evil Jeremy]

Starting to get some much needed rain here in Broward from 90L. Hoping for another 2 inches to end this drought.

I'm really feeling that squall now in Plantation.... It's the sound of music to me. There's even a croaking frog.

[floridasun78]

we got pretty good gust shower here by mia airport look like more too come from coast line

[Jr0d]

Looking ragged right now, not expecting TC formation in the next 12 hours. For a few hours earlier today it looked like it was getting its act together.

So far it is developing as expected or at least in line with the GFS.

I am thinking we will have not have a storm until Saturday.

[floridasun78]

Looking ragged right now, not expecting TC formation in the next 12 hours. For a few hours earlier today it looked like it was getting its act together.

So far it is developing as expected or at least in line with the GFS.

I am thinking we will have not have a storm until Saturday.

south fl need rain not tropical system so good will wait untill pass bahama

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Am I seeing the radar loop wrong or is the COC that was between KW and Cuba breaking down and another one forming
closer to the upper keys Florida city area? of course off the coast to be clearLOL,

[Ubuntwo]

Looking ragged right now, not expecting TC formation in the next 12 hours. For a few hours earlier today it looked like it was getting its act together.

So far it is developing as expected or at least in line with the GFS.

I am thinking we will have not have a storm until Saturday.

south fl need rain not tropical system so good will wait untill pass bahama

No let's take it we need the rain!

[chaser1]

Am I seeing the radar loop wrong or is the COC that was between KW and Cuba breaking down and another one forming
closer to the upper keys Florida city area? of course off the coast to be clearLOL,

So hard to say with these formative blobs. On top of that, this will likely start off fairly broad. You could be right but my bet right now would be to continue looking a bit closer to the Cuban coastline as Aric alluded to a little while ago and with a slightly improved hint of 850mb turning between the Cuban coast and Andros later tomorrow. I see NHC probably tagging this one sometime on Sunday. My only slight hesitation there is that this isn't in the GOM. I'd start flying repetitive recon asap (NOT lol)

[SFLcane]

Overall satellite and radar presentation not impressive tonight. Still has a long ways to go. As gator mentioned rainfall never makes onshore mainland sfl.

[cycloneye]

Flareup.

[GCANE]

Some mid-level moisture from Cuba is moving into the dry line and firing off shear-induced convection.
Looks like the bottom of the shortwave will reach the western end of Cuba in about 4 hours and is starting to develop a dramtic negative tilt.
It should start interacting with the mid-level vort, currently over Cuba in about 8 hours.
At that point, should see a dramatic drop in shear.
Surface pressure taking a nice dive at Vaca Key.

[GCANE]

Expanding and deepening CAPE ridge in the Straits.
Up to 2500 now.

[GCANE]

Tail end of the shortwave is just about at the tip of Cuba now.