ATL: KAREN - Remnants - Discussion

[sma10]

I'm still seeing a pitiful mess with a broad, poorly-defined center east of the convection and moving NNE. It's no better-organized than it was this morning. Still no threat to the Bahamas or Florida. Time to go home after I send out the Lorenzo advisory...

Try and enjoy what little time away you can. I get the sense we might have a busy October close to home.

[LarryWx]

I'm still seeing a pitiful mess with a broad, poorly-defined center east of the convection and moving NNE. It's no better-organized than it was this morning. Still no threat to the Bahamas or Florida. Time to go home after I send out the Lorenzo advisory...

Here we go again. Just a slight disagreement between Aric and 57. I love love it!

[floridasun78]

so drama with KAREN i been reading post some say it weak other saying look stronger wxman57 saying will die soon other saying look better now who will be we know soon

[LarryWx]

Recon found a second center well north of the convection. Possibly 2 centers rotating around a larger low pressure area. It's really hard for a system to strengthen without any low-level convergence. Winds north of the southern center are blowing south to north, away from the low center.

http://wxman57.com/images/recon.png

Good point, 57! I think that Karen having a low to the north (Jerry and his trough) as opposed to a sfc high to the north which normally aids in surface convergence is the main inhibiting factor.

[Emmett_Brown]

Karen certainly did maintain convection today.

[Aric Dunn]

Recon found a second center well north of the convection. Possibly 2 centers rotating around a larger low pressure area. It's really hard for a system to strengthen without any low-level convergence. Winds north of the southern center are blowing south to north, away from the low center.

http://wxman57.com/images/recon.png

That is the old boundary between jerry and karen and in this case a dry line in the low levels. Not a center.

[aperson]

Recon found a second center well north of the convection. Possibly 2 centers rotating around a larger low pressure area. It's really hard for a system to strengthen without any low-level convergence. Winds north of the southern center are blowing south to north, away from the low center.

http://wxman57.com/images/recon.png

That is the old boundary between jerry and karen and in this case a dry line in the low levels. Not a center.

That's what it naively looks like to me as well since there's no MSLP depression alongside it

[NDG]

Yeap, that's no secondary LLC north of Karen's COC, that's Jerry's trough like boundary around its circulation, clearly seen zoomed out on the satellite loop and also earlier this morning on ASCAT, making Karen's circulation on its NE quadrant elongated.

[Emmett_Brown]

The main thing holding Karen back has been Jerry.

[wxman57]

Yeah, that other circulation was a trof extending north out of Karen. However, Karen continues to deteriorate today. Not sure what recon report indicated 40 kt winds, though. Max FL was 38 kts early on.

[TallyTracker]

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphi ... i#contents

Karen’s elongated windfield is so bizarre! Never seen an NHC wind graphic look like that!

[Ucfkid]

Tony Mainolfi said central Florida should expect rain from Karen on Wednesday. Should become a low on Saturday with no chance of regaining tropical storm status.

[wxman57]

Buoy near Karen now has a north wind at 20 kts, an indication that the center is east of the buoy, farther from the convection:

[sunnyday]

Local radio person just said that Karen is taking aim at Fl but not before the storm dissipates! ????????????????

[Frank2]

My nephew works in radio - that's just filler chatter spoken by someone who's on the evening shift. Likely NHC s correct and the system will dissipate - probably sooner than later, about 1,000 miles east of Florida - once it moves under stronger shear.

[AnnularCane]

All I can say is I don't think I know what to believe anymore.

[Frank2]

This is when differing opinions serve no purpose except to confuse. The fact is the system is very weak and about to weaken further under strong shear. Instead of debating, the facts that are there should be used in a common-sense way to see what is likely to happen.

[Dean4Storms]

Just back from a round of golf and see that Karen does not appear to be any better organized. That turn to the NE has it tilted with the MLC back to the west of the LLC. Looks like NHC is going to come out right on this with the weakening trend overall.

[Aric Dunn]

Convection building all around the center.. continues to slwly improve all day..

[Dean4Storms]

Convection building all around the center.. continues to slwly improve all day..

All I see is convection North and West of the center and LL clouds moving North to the NE of the center. I expected when I last looked this morning to come back late this afternoon and see a much more convective centered storm, just not getting there IMO.