ATL: HUMBERTO - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[plasticup]

Eye is clear

[DioBrando]

H-eye sisters!

[Emmett_Brown]

I am pretty bullish on Humberto over performing on intensity. I think he can hit cat 4 easily. SSTs are way above normal near Bermuda, and shear will be relatively light since the storm in the same direction as the shear vector. I hope it stays far enough N of Bermuda to spare them the worst damage.

[DioBrando]

I am pretty bullish on Humberto over performing on intensity. I think he can hit cat 4 easily. SSTs are way above normal near Bermuda, and shear will be relatively light since the storm in the same direction as the shear vector. I hope it stays far enough N of Bermuda to spare them the worst damage.

Mmmm, you have an idea knotswise?
It looks like every storm named humberto wants to overperform tbh

[plasticup]

NE outflow reaches halfway to Europe. This is that insane jetstream the NHC was talking about.

[Emmett_Brown]

I am pretty bullish on Humberto over performing on intensity. I think he can hit cat 4 easily. SSTs are way above normal near Bermuda, and shear will be relatively light since the storm in the same direction as the shear vector. I hope it stays far enough N of Bermuda to spare them the worst damage.

Mmmm, you have an idea knotswise?
It looks like every storm named humberto wants to overperform tbh

My gut feeling is 120kt, which is about 140 mph. Very doable in my opinion. I remember a storm named Harvey back in the '80s that threatened Bermuda with cat 4 winds, back when SSTs were a lot cooler than today, so storms can get very strong in the sub tropics. Yesterday's UKMET run had Humberto getting down sub 920 mb, so 120kt might be conservative. All my opinions of course.

[DioBrando]

I am pretty bullish on Humberto over performing on intensity. I think he can hit cat 4 easily. SSTs are way above normal near Bermuda, and shear will be relatively light since the storm in the same direction as the shear vector. I hope it stays far enough N of Bermuda to spare them the worst damage.

Mmmm, you have an idea knotswise?
It looks like every storm named humberto wants to overperform tbh

My gut feeling is 120kt, which is about 140 mph. Very doable in my opinion. I remember a storm named Harvey back in the '80s that threatened Bermuda with cat 4 winds, back when SSTs were a lot cooler than today, so storms can get very strong in the sub tropics. Yesterday's UKMET run had Humberto getting down sub 920 mb, so 120kt might be conservative. All my opinions of course.

He's already looking well-organized on camera so I think that's within his reach. Better organization means more likely to strenghten imo.
He's a pretty boy.
Hope he misses Bermuda though.

[plasticup]

This a really pretty storm, wow. Doesn't look like a Cat 1 in this picture.

[BYG Jacob]

Looks more like a high end cat 2 at this point.

[CrazyC83]

Pressure is down to 974, but the Recon has not found winds supporting any higher than 75 kt so far.

[Kazmit]

Looks like its up to 90mph per the 18z best track.

[AnnularCane]

I don't usually question recon, but he sure looks good for a Cat 1.

[Kazmit]

I don't usually question recon, but he sure looks good for a Cat 1.

They haven't sampled the southern part of the storm yet, we'll see.

[storm_in_a_teacup]

Eye is clear

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/images/goes16_vis_09L_201909161532.jpg?2982832

Humberto can see now!

[wx98]

Pressure is still falling (~971 mb), but the recon observed winds aren't really going up much. Max FL is around 80 kt, so the NHC is apparently going with that without the reduction. Maybe that is because of the very good satellite appearance.

[DioBrando]

Issa Dvoracc readin'.


Say WHAAAAAAAAAT

[StruThiO]

As CrazyC83 pointed out in the Recon thread, the pressure gradient isn't too sharp. Might be more comparable to post-Bahamas Dorian or pre-landfall Florence?

[wx98]

As CrazyC83 pointed out in the Recon thread, the pressure gradient isn't too sharp. Might be more comparable to post-Bahamas Dorian or pre-landfall Florence?

Yes, and that would explain why the winds aren't as high as you would think at this point.

[wx98]

...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND HUMBERTO STRONGER... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR BERMUDA...

5:00 PM EDT Mon Sep 16
Location: 30.2°N 75.9°W
Moving: ENE at 7 mph
Min pressure: 972 mb
Max sustained: 90 mph

[wx98]

Pressure continuing to fall, down to 968.5 extrapolated