ATL: DORIAN - Models

[stormlover2013]

Storm Lover,

If I am not mistaken the ICON has also had a very close track as the NAVGEN.

yeah it has but I mean icon could have just been lucky lately who knows lol maybe the navy could get lucky....those models aren't well known but navy , cmc, icon are known to not be that good but who knows u never know

[ronjon]

RonJon,

As you stated it is the NAVGEM, but that being said you can't just ignore how consistent it has been with that track.

Not a good global model (ask wxman57 lol). But watch for trends the next few days - if most models shift one or way or the other. I think if anything they will shift south due to a stronger ridge at 500 mb but it's watch and wait time the next few days.

[SFLcane]

What ridge...

Watch it go out to sea.

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1166443165026410496

[chris_fit]

Welll UK and ECMF have certainly put a new twist on this thing

[AutoPenalti]

UKMET and Euro are not even initializing this correctly. Throw it out. Restart in 8 hours.

[Evil Jeremy]

I really hope the current Gonzo mission provides some much needed clarity regarding the ridging for the 00z models tonight.

[Stormcenter]

Garbage in equals garbage out

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/BMcNoldy/status/1166443612269236225

[Aric Dunn]

Just to reiterate. This model cycle all need to be technically thrown out due to the initialization. A more right system early on equals a more left system later on.

[Bocadude85]

What ridge...

Watch it go out to sea.

https://i.imgur.com/wWRnNv7.png

The UKMET ensembles make no sense to me, the operational run dives wsw over Florida, while a vast majority of the ensembles head NE...something seems off here..

[SFLcane]

My question would be what will this center relocation do long term track? You would think it might extend the threat further north away from SFL or Florida itself. Thoughts?

[Evil Jeremy]

Just to reiterate. This model cycle all need to be technically thrown out due to the initialization. A more right system early on equals a more left system later on.

Can you elaborate?

[AxaltaRacing24]

My question would be what will this center relocation do long term track? You would think it might extend the threat further north away from SFL or Florida itself. Thoughts?

No. It increases it if anything.

[SFLcane]

So the 00z models are the ones to look at based on center relocation.

[caneseddy]

My question would be what will this center relocation do long term track? You would think it might extend the threat further north away from SFL or Florida itself. Thoughts?

No. It increases it if anything.

I can see what you mean. If the center is where the "X" that's maybe a 100-200 mile difference NE. We can all agree that most likely there will be a high pressure to the north. Take that 100-200 mile difference and run it parallel to the current ensemble lines. You can see the turn may be occurring further south and farther east which may allow more time for the HP to establish and shunt it west/wsw.

But hey what do I know. I'm not a pro and I could be wrong.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

[Aric Dunn]

Just to reiterate. This model cycle all need to be technically thrown out due to the initialization. A more right system early on equals a more left system later on.

Can you elaborate?

Well it was laid out well in an earlier post.

But think of it this way. with the track that is steady nw to wnw dorian from its earlier position would keep it moving along the edge of the building ridge over the Atlantic ...before the secondary building ridge behind TD6 builds in and thus would gain more latitude over all.

In the case that dorian is right of the track, as it is right now, means that it will be deeper behind the already entrenched Bermuda high and will turn west at a lower latitude and farther east which would allow the ridge to build west and close any gap up when the ridge behind TD6 fills in.

hence why you see in the models everything that was on the right side of the envelope ended up stronger and farther south overall.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

The COC relocation this morning threw a massive wrench into the long-term forecast, IMO. OTS wouldn't shock me, but the most likely path still seem to be FL.

[DESTRUCTION5]

Despite the center redeveloping farther north, radar and recon
fixes indicate that the motion remains west-northwestward or
300/11 kt. Due to the more northward initial position, the new
forecast track was shifted 30-60 n mi northeast of the previous
one track through 96 hours. The global models are in good agreement
on Dorian moving west-northwestward tonight and then turning
northwestward on Wednesday, bringing the cyclone's center near
or over the central or western portions of Puerto Rico. After
clearing the island by early Thursday, Dorian is forecast to move
cyclonically around the eastern portion of a southwestward-moving
mid/upper-level low on days 3-5. The evolution of the upper-low and
how strong the mid-level ridge to the north builds in behind the low
and across the southeastern U.S. will determine when and how sharp
Dorian's turn back the west-northwest will occur. The new NHC track
is close to a blend consensus models TVCN, HCCA, and FSSE, and
brings Dorian near the east-central Florida coast in 120 hours.
Users are reminded not to focus on the details of the extended track
forecast as the average 5-day track error is around 200 miles.

So likley hood of it being in Merritt Island in 5 days is slim. Still 2 days early from nailing down a landfall point within 50 miles.

[Bocadude85]

The 18z ICON has Dorian moving due west as a strengthening hurricane through the Northwestern Bahamas with a landfall in S.Fla in 120 hours