ATL: KAREN - Remnants - Discussion

[GCANE]

Latest ASCAT looks like its holding its own.
700mb vort still displaced some.
If those towers keep firing, that'll all snap in place soon enough.

[SouthDadeFish]

Respectfully disagree with you. She is gradually getting vertically stacked this morning as the anticyclone is getting more over it now and convective banding will only improve around the center with the signals I am seeing with the cyclone currrently. This is the best Karen has appeared in her life cycle to this juncture.

That's like winning an award for being the fastest tortoise... Not saying much lol.

Does it look better than yesterday? Yes. That doesn't mean it's necessarily an organized system. It does have a small window today to take advantage of lighter shear. We will see. Not overly impressed at the moment.

We agree to disagree SouthDade. We have had some great analytical discussions in the past and it makes this spirited debate all the more why I love the job I have been doing now for many years.

Cheers. Everyone is entitled to their analyses and I do enjoy coming on this board from time-to-time to read what folks on here are thinking.

[NDG]

Based on the latest two GFS run forecasts for mid & UL conditions I don't see Karen dissipating through at least the next 5 days, past 5 days is still up in the air.

[SouthDadeFish]

I will say this: The wild card with these sheared systems is always center reformation. If a center can reform underneath the mid-level vortex with persistent deep convection, then the system will fare better against the vertical wind shear.

[wxman57]

57...what say you about this

On first glance, Karen looks impressive on satellite. However, I don't think there's a circulation under those squalls. I think the LLC is getting less-defined and is located NE of the squalls, if it still exists at all. I'm wondering if Karen has lost its LLC overnight. That said, I did predict yesterday that Karen might regain TS strength today and hold it for 24-48 hours before weakening and dissipating. If there is an LLC, I'd put it near 26.9N / 63.5W, which is near the outer edge of the cirrus shield on the NE side. It may be a very broad circulation, though, as I don't see any low-level convergence toward that area.

[northjaxpro]

That's like winning an award for being the fastest tortoise... Not saying much lol.

Does it look better than yesterday? Yes. That doesn't mean it's necessarily an organized system. It does have a small window today to take advantage of lighter shear. We will see. Not overly impressed at the moment.

We agree to disagree SouthDade. We have had some great analytical discussions in the past and it makes this spirited debate all the more why I love the job I have been doing now for many years.

Cheers. Everyone is entitled to their analyses and I do enjoy coming on this board from time-to-time to read what folks on here are thinking.

Likewise with me. We amongst ourselves have had great dialogue, especially winter synoptics SouthDade. I enjoy the banter. It helps me get my day going to tackle my daily responsibilites coming on Storm2K to talk weather!

[Dean4Storms]

Water vapor looks good right now, UL Anti-Cyclone looks good, looks like LL convergence is better and shear not much there 10kts or less. See no reason why this doesn't deepen fairly rapidly today if it gets stacked.

[GCANE]

Not seeing any lightning with the towers, its firing off in very moist air.
The ULL is actually pulling a lot of mid-level moisture into Karen.
Its also creating an outflow channel, can see it on the west side of the CoC.

[GCANE]

Off-scale on latest microwave.
Where's Aric?

[Dean4Storms]

57...what say you about this

On first glance, Karen looks impressive on satellite. However, I don't think there's a circulation under those squalls. I think the LLC is getting less-defined and is located NE of the squalls, if it still exists at all. I'm wondering if Karen has lost its LLC overnight. That said, I did predict yesterday that Karen might regain TS strength today and hold it for 24-48 hours before weakening and dissipating. If there is an LLC, I'd put it near 26.9N / 63.5W, which is near the outer edge of the cirrus shield on the NE side. It may be a very broad circulation, though, as I don't see any low-level convergence toward that area.

I would expect big outflows racing NNE out of that deep convection if there still wasn't a clear LLC there. I have the center back near 63.8w

[Aric Dunn]

Off-scale on latest microwave.
Where's Aric?

https://i.imgur.com/9RkZ5Ht.jpg

I threw my 2 bits in a min ago.. im in the storm2k discord most of the time.

[GCANE]

AMSU is still holding it as a TS

[Blown Away]

Latest...

[northjaxpro]

Off-scale on latest microwave.
Where's Aric?

https://i.imgur.com/9RkZ5Ht.jpg

I threw my 2 bits in a min ago.. im in the storm2k discord most of the time.

Why say that Aric? I actually look forward to your thoughts on here and I am sure others as well. We all are sharing our thoughts , none of us are any different. I do not see any discord in this of what you state on here.

[tgenius]

Off-scale on latest microwave.
Where's Aric?

https://i.imgur.com/9RkZ5Ht.jpg

I threw my 2 bits in a min ago.. im in the storm2k discord most of the time.

Why say that Aric? I actually look forward to your thoughts on here and I am sure others as well. We all are sharing our thoughts , none of us are any different. I do not see any discord in this of what you state on here.

he literally means the storm 2k discord chat There's a topic at the top of the subforum.

[Aric Dunn]

Off-scale on latest microwave.
Where's Aric?

https://i.imgur.com/9RkZ5Ht.jpg

I threw my 2 bits in a min ago.. im in the storm2k discord most of the time.

Why say that Aric? I actually look forward to your thoughts on here and I am sure others as well. We all are sharing our thoughts , none of us are any different. I do not see any discord in this of what you state on here.

No no.. there is a storm2k Discord chat room. Lol you need to come join. It is a offical storm2k thing.

[northjaxpro]

I threw my 2 bits in a min ago.. im in the storm2k discord most of the time.

Why say that Aric? I actually look forward to your thoughts on here and I am sure others as well. We all are sharing our thoughts , none of us are any different. I do not see any discord in this of what you state on here.

he literally means the storm 2k discord chat There's a topic at the top of the subforum.

Oh OK. I forgot about the chat board. I need to get on that chatboard more often, but I just do not have the time to do so.

[Aric Dunn]

Why say that Aric? I actually look forward to your thoughts on here and I am sure others as well. We all are sharing our thoughts , none of us are any different. I do not see any discord in this of what you state on here.

he literally means the storm 2k discord chat There's a topic at the top of the subforum.

Oh OK. I forgot about the chat board. I need to get on that chatboard more often, but I just do not have the time to do so.

It is a little easier on the chat while i am at work. You should give it a try.

[northjaxpro]

I will give it a try. Have to keep reminding myself to get around to doing so eventually.

[toad strangler]

he literally means the storm 2k discord chat There's a topic at the top of the subforum.

Oh OK. I forgot about the chat board. I need to get on that chatboard more often, but I just do not have the time to do so.

It is a little easier on the chat while i am at work. You should give it a try.

Link?