ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[supercane4867]

 https://twitter.com/NWSMoreheadCity/status/1169626122981527554

[supercane4867]

Current motion suggests it could make landfall at Bald Head Island south of Wilmington unless a wobble to the east occurs

[tolakram]

Frying Pan Tower Cam

[youtube]https://youtu.be/vGimsBVpuN8[/youtube]

[p1nheadlarry]

NHC keeps official track offshore. I still think it landfalls.

Looks like the track takes it right over OBX. Doesn't make any difference anyway, eyewall will be onshore in most part of NC

Looks to me like they have it over the OBX as well.

As the above poster said it's not the biggest deal, but the 24 hr mark seems to be over the OBX but the NHC discussion doesn't state that. They do mention it could make landfall however.

[hipshot]

Frying Pan Tower Cam

https://youtu.be/vGimsBVpuN8

Where is that located? Looks like it took a pretty good beating.

[Visioen]

Dry slot to the west or not, core structure still looks very decent on IR.

[p1nheadlarry]

Frying Pan Tower Cam

https://youtu.be/vGimsBVpuN8

Where is that located? Looks like it took a pretty good beating.

Frying Pan Shoals, a dozen or so miles south of Bald Head Island NC

[longhorn2004]

So is Dorian being steered by the invisible wall the High pressure has put up or is it being effected the jet stream?

Can't wait for this storm to reach the cool waters of the north Atlantic and die.

[FLpanhandle91]

This is the most symmetric the CDO has been since it left the Bahamas. Really curious to see if recon finds a strengthening storm when they get there.

[SconnieCane]

Dry slot to the west or not, core structure still looks very decent on IR.

https://i.imgur.com/WLV2qxj.jpg

It actually looks like the hurricane symbol on the map, with the 2 large outflow channels on the north and south sides.

[Raebie]

15 miles off the coast. Look out Myrtle Beach.

[CronkPSU]

15 miles off the coast. Look out Myrtle Beach.

literally a wobble away...freaking crazy how it is staying just off the coast the whole way so far

[chaser1]

Looks like Wilmington is getting the brunt of both onshore storm surge piling in along with a real intense feeder band!

[syfr]

Gulp that dry air and DIE, Dorian!

[RL3AO]

I don't think Wilmington will get a landfall, but they're gonna get the western eyewall.

[Raebie]

I don't think Wilmington will get a landfall, but they're gonna get the western eyewall.

Dislike. Intensely.

[bjackrian]

EDIT: Now 45 kt gusting to 60 kt.

55 knot gust at Charleston Airport which is 15 miles inland from the coast, if my quick Google Maps measurement is correct.

KCHS 051539Z AUTO 35035G55KT 1 3/4SM R15/5000VP6000FT -RA BR 23/22 A2933 RMK AO2 PK WND 35055/1536 RAEMMB10RAEMMB24RAEMMB35 P0008 T02330222 $
KCHS 051549Z AUTO 35045G60KT 1 1/4SM R15/4000VP6000FT BR 23/22 A2934 RMK AO2 PK WND 34060/1548 RAEMMB10RAEMMB24RAEMMB35RAEMM P0008 T02330222 PWINO $

[Orson]

Frying Pan Tower Cam

https://youtu.be/vGimsBVpuN8

Where is that located? Looks like it took a pretty good beating.

Frying Pan Shoals, a dozen or so miles south of Bald Head Island NC

I would have sworn it was the remains of Stiltsville in Biscayne Bay, FL! Katrina took out my lakehouse that was on 12' pilings on Lake Pontchartrain.

[Airboy]

What does it take to count as a "landfall"? The edge of the eye touching on land or like 50 % or more over land?

[Kazmit]

What does it take to count as a "landfall"? The edge of the eye touching on land or like 50 % or more over land?

The point of lowest pressure in the eye I believe, which is usually around the center of the eye.