ATL: HUMBERTO - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Highteeld]

Not super often you see any semblance of an "eye" in a tropical storm

https://i.imgur.com/OyFCYhL.png

[LarryWx]

So, is the latest recon pass showing the lowest pressure at 29.1N, 77.9W? If so, it moved SE from the 5 PM of 29.3N, 78.1 W. But maybe I didn’t see the location of the lowest pressure? Anyone know? I’m asking because motion tonight into tomorrow is as important as any movement the next 3 days. Of course, that’s probably just a wobble, regardless.

[Aric Dunn]

Per Recon and satellite motion compared the model consensus..

it needs to gain latitude.. but right now its heading east.. no way it makes the next forecast point. not even close.

well ene

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Flight level winds suggest Humberto is very close to becoming a hurricane.

[Kazmit]

Per Recon and satellite motion compared the model consensus..

it needs to gain latitude.. but right now its heading east.. no way it makes the next forecast point. not even close.

well ene
https://i.ibb.co/TWHgTC9/Capture.png

How would not gaining as much latitude as expected affect the long term track?

[Aric Dunn]

Per Recon and satellite motion compared the model consensus..

it needs to gain latitude.. but right now its heading east.. no way it makes the next forecast point. not even close.

well ene
https://i.ibb.co/TWHgTC9/Capture.png

How would not gaining as much latitude as expected affect the long term track?

hard to say.. but i am sure you can guess what will likely increase for the 00z models if its 100 miles south of where it should be

[Hypercane_Kyle]

00z ATCF has upgraded Humberto to the 3rd hurricane of the season.

[LarryWx]

So, is the latest recon pass showing the lowest pressure at 29.1N, 77.9W? If so, it moved SE from the 5 PM of 29.3N, 78.1 W. But maybe I didn’t see the location of the lowest pressure? Anyone know? I’m asking because motion tonight into tomorrow is as important as any movement the next 3 days. Of course, that’s probably just a wobble, regardless.

An even more recent recon suggests it may now be near 29.2N, 77.8W. So, if true, since 5PM a move of 0.1 S by 0.3 E.
The projected NHC 2 AM is 29.8 N, 77.6 W. So, it isn’t making good N movement but it is making good E movement. My landmark is whether or not it makes it past 70-2 W by 8 PM Wednesday. But the further south it is, the further east it will need to get to be totally safe from the US.

[Hammy]

00z ATCF has upgraded Humberto to the 3rd hurricane of the season.

I'm not making sense of the intensity estimates given it doesn't appear the planes are finding anything higher than about 50kt.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

00z ATCF has upgraded Humberto to the 3rd hurricane of the season.

I'm not making sense of the intensity estimates given it doesn't appear the planes are finding anything higher than about 50kt.

Likely reduction from flight level.

[Aric Dunn]

So, is the latest recon pass showing the lowest pressure at 29.1N, 77.9W? If so, it moved SE from the 5 PM of 29.3N, 78.1 W. But maybe I didn’t see the location of the lowest pressure? Anyone know? I’m asking because motion tonight into tomorrow is as important as any movement the next 3 days. Of course, that’s probably just a wobble, regardless.

An even more recent recon suggests it may now be near 29.2N, 77.8W. So, if true, since 5PM a move of 0.1 S by 0.3 E.
The projected NHC 2 AM is 29.8 N, 77.6 W. So, it isn’t making good N movement but it is making good E movement. My landmark is whether or not it makes it past 70-2 W by 8 PM Wednesday. But the further south it is, the further east it will need to get to be totally safe from the US.

Here you go.. no way it makes the 12h forecast point. its 45 miles to the North and at least on radar its moving east..

[Blown Away]

It seems like it will happen, but very unusual for a hurricane to make such a sharp E turn at only @30N...

[Tailspin]

https://imgur.com/Rv9Xcb3

[Aric Dunn]

Radar and Sat still show it just heading straight east well south of the models and nhc track.. little to no north component.

We will find out overnight with the 00z run if there is any substantial tack shift..

[Tailspin]

Best Track Position and Intensity as of:

Monday, Sep. 16, 2019 0:00 Z

Wind (1 min. avg.):

65 knots (75 mph | 33 m/s | 120 km/h)

Gusts:

80 knots (92 mph | 41 m/s | 148 km/h)

Pressure:

988 mb (29.18 inHg | 988 hPa)

Location at the time:

190 statute miles (306 km) to the ENE (64°) from Melbourne, FL, USA.

Coordinates:

29.3N 77.8W How far away is this from me?

Source:

National Hurricane Center's (NHC) Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecasting (ATCF) System and not from any available advisory data

Wind Field Details:

The radius of 64 knot (74 mph, 33 m/s, 119 km/h) winds is:
20 nautical miles (23 miles, 37 kilometers) in the northeast quadrant.
20 nautical miles (23 miles, 37 kilometers) in the southeast quadrant.
Any quadrant not listed contained a radius of 0 nautical miles.

The radius of 50 knot (58 mph, 26 m/s, 93 km/h) winds is:
50 nautical miles (58 miles, 93 kilometers) in the northeast quadrant.
50 nautical miles (58 miles, 93 kilometers) in the southeast quadrant.
30 nautical miles (35 miles, 56 kilometers) in the northwest quadrant.
Any quadrant not listed contained a radius of 0 nautical miles.

The radius of 34 knot (39 mph, 17 m/s, 63 km/h) winds is:
100 nautical miles (115 miles, 185 kilometers) in the northeast quadrant.
130 nautical miles (150 miles, 241 kilometers) in the southeast quadrant.
40 nautical miles (46 miles, 74 kilometers) in the southwest quadrant.
60 nautical miles (69 miles, 111 kilometers) in the northwest quadrant.

[wx98]

Now officially Hurricane Humberto

[wx98]

NHC slowed down the track. Mid range looks about 12 hours slower getting to/near Bermuda Thursday morning (instead of Wed evening).

[HurricaneRyan]

Humberto never fails to be a hurricane! 5th consecutive time. With the exception of one, most have been out to sea.

[LarryWx]

Radar and Sat still show it just heading straight east well south of the models and nhc track.. little to no north component.

We will find out overnight with the 00z run if there is any substantial tack shift..

Yeah, the N component has been lacking although the E component has been good. Both are important as far as minimizing the threat of a turn back to the US. I’m sticking with my own guideline of getting to at least 70W by 0Z Thu (8 PM Wed) to make the US essentially safe and not reaching 72W by then as being downright dangerous for the US. With a further south than expected track, which may very occur based on earlier this evening’s ENE movement, I’d want it to at least get to 70W by then.

[aperson]

eyewall looks good now