ATL: BARRY - Models

[Steve]

Also, I'd like to hear StormLogic's take on the track since he's been saying since Monday that the models were wrong except the western ones.

Until the two spins get stacked we must wait to gather more data for confirmation of track. With that being said, my forecast remains about the same as I'm not buying the sharp eastward trend models just yet.

I’m not either. I still like the compromise idea around Morgan City or so.

[SoupBone]

Also, I'd like to hear StormLogic's take on the track since he's been saying since Monday that the models were wrong except the western ones.

Until the two spins get stacked we must wait to gather more data for confirmation of track. With that being said, my forecast remains about the same as I'm not buying the sharp eastward trend models just yet.

I’m not either. I still like the compromise idea around Morgan City or so.

He was thinking Bolivar peninsula area though. Not exactly close to Morgan City.

[SunnyThoughts]

000
WTNT42 KNHC 111453
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Barry Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022019
1000 AM CDT Thu Jul 11 2019

The low pressure area over the northern Gulf of Mexico has become
better organized during the past several hours, with a large
convective band in the southern semicircle. The circulation
center has also become better defined, although it is still
elongated and multiple cloud swirls are seen rotating around the
mean center. In addition, Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane
Hunter aircraft report flight-level and SFMR winds high enough for
an initial intensity of 35 kt. Based on these developments, the
system is upgraded to Tropical Storm Barry.

The initial motion is a rather uncertain 270/4. Barry is being
steered by a weak low- to mid-level ridge to the north, and a
weakness in the ridge is forecast to develop during the next
24-48 h. This should allow the cyclone to turn northwestward and
eventually northward. However, there is a large spread in the track
guidance. The HWRF and HMON forecast Barry to move almost due
north from its current position with a landfall in Mississippi,
while the UKMET takes the cyclone to the upper Texas coast. The
GFS, ECMWF, and Canadian models lie between these extremes.
Overall, there has been a slight eastward shift of the guidance
envelope, so the new forecast track is also adjusted slightly to
the east. It should be noted, though, that the new track is west
of the consensus models.

Barry is being affected by northerly shear, and water vapor imagery
indicates mid- to upper-level dry air moving into the cyclone from
the northeast. Some moderate shear is now expected to persist until
the cyclone makes landfall. Despite this less than ideal
environment, the guidance forecasts slow but steady intensification,
so the NHC forecast follows this trend. The new intensity forecast
is similar to the previous one in calling for Barry to become a
hurricane just before landfall in Louisiana, and it lies between the
HCCA and ICON consensus models.

Key Messages:

1. Barry is expected to bring storm surge, rainfall, and wind
hazards to the central Gulf Coast during the next several days.

2. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation
along the coast of southern and southeastern Louisiana where a Storm
Surge Warning has been issued. The highest storm surge inundation is
expected between the Mouth of the Atchafalaya River and Shell Beach.
Residents in these areas should listen to any advice given by local
officials.

3. A Tropical Storm Warning and Hurricane Watch are in effect for
much of the Louisiana coast and additional watches and warnings
could be required later today. Residents in these areas should
ensure they have their hurricane plan in place.

4. The slow movement of this system will result in a long duration
heavy

[sphelps8681]

ICON 12z loading and at hr 3 looks further south than previous run. Correct me if i am wrong been looking at this stuff to long.

BTW 12z icon hr 12 seems further west and stronger

[StormLogic]

Until the two spins get stacked we must wait to gather more data for confirmation of track. With that being said, my forecast remains about the same as I'm not buying the sharp eastward trend models just yet.

I’m not either. I still like the compromise idea around Morgan City or so.

He was thinking Bolivar peninsula area though. Not exactly close to Morgan City.

*Mcfaddin Beach TX to Pecan Island LA to be exact. But I'm also extending that out further west to Bolivar Peninsula !

[Wx_Warrior]

NHC 10am

[Frank P]

12Z 3k NAM at h44 landfall just east of Vermillion Bay pressure 960, slight shift SW from 06Z run

I think this model can be discarded after showing a sub 890 storm a few runs in a row...

its just another data point, looking more at direction and intensity... but yeah we all know NOT its the best of models...

[tarheelprogrammer]

GFS New and Old both showing landfall about the same spot at the same intensity. Both nudged a little SW of previous spot, but same general idea. Not a lot of time for changes on a large scale.

[HurricaneBrain]

GFS actually shifted considerably west..

[Frank P]

12Z GFS legacy running, shifted west at h48 basically over NOLA with 986 mb pressure... to me it initialized NE of where the NHC has the current the center...

[Hypercane_Kyle]

GFS looks basically dead on with the NHC forecast track now for Barry.

[TheProfessor]

The GFS would be insanely bad for me up on the North Shore.

[Siker]

Come on UKMET.

[Stormcenter]

GFS is locking in on SE LA.

[StormLogic]

Come on UKMET.

https://i.imgur.com/FiBdJFS.png

BOLIVAR PEN.

[txwatcher91]

Come on UKMET.

https://i.imgur.com/FiBdJFS.png

Not sure why the UK still hasn't caught on, it seems to be lost on this one.

[PTrackerLA]

About to lose a lot of respect for the UKMET after this storm, it just won't give up on being an "extreme" western outlier .

[StormLogic]

UKMET known for being fairly accurate. Whats it sniffing out that the others are not?

[TheProfessor]

Unless the UkMet is doing something with the center and that western convection then at this point it's really trying to make a statement.

[Stormcenter]

Wasn't the UKMET the extreme outlier for Hurricane Michael last season?