ATL: HUMBERTO - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[LarryWx]

It is sitting right at 78 west right where all the models show the turn.
Key thing is that its about 100 miles south of the model consensus.

I don’t know, Aric. The hour 6 of the 6Z Euro/GFS and hour 12 of the 0Z CMC (8 AM EDT position) all have him due east of Cape Canaveral. Note that the 6Z GFS/Euro took him safely away from the US. Isn’t that about where he was at 8 AM?
Up next: 6Z EPS. But as of now, I’m feeling good about the favored US miss verifying. Note that the 6Z Euro was a little east of the 0Z Euro. That’s a good sign for the US.

[Kazmit]

Winds up to 55kts, pressure down to 997mbars. Despite its appearance, it's strengthening.

[ScottNAtlanta]

It is sitting right at 78 west right where all the models show the turn.
Key thing is that its about 100 miles south of the model consensus.

I don’t know, Aric. The hour 6 of the 6Z Euro/GFS and hour 12 of the 0Z CMC (8 AM EDT position) all have him due east of Cape Canaveral. Note that the 6Z GFS/Euro took him safely away from the US. Isn’t that about where he was at 8 AM?
Up next: 6Z EPS. But as of now, I’m feeling good about the favored US miss verifying.

Its due east of the Cape, but its closer than its supposed to be and not nearly as strong as they are indicating. I'm not sure how well the models are handling the persistent convection to the SE

[ScottNAtlanta]

Winds up to 55kts, pressure down to 997mbars. Despite its appearance, it's strengthening.

Where are you getting that info?

[storm4u]

Winds up to 55kts, pressure down to 997mbars. Despite its appearance, it's strengthening.

Where are you getting that info?

https://tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/

[LarryWx]

It is sitting right at 78 west right where all the models show the turn.
Key thing is that its about 100 miles south of the model consensus.

I don’t know, Aric. The hour 6 of the 6Z Euro/GFS and hour 12 of the 0Z CMC (8 AM EDT position) all have him due east of Cape Canaveral. Note that the 6Z GFS/Euro took him safely away from the US. Isn’t that about where he was at 8 AM?
Up next: 6Z EPS. But as of now, I’m feeling good about the favored US miss verifying.

Its due east of the Cape, but its closer than its supposed to be and not nearly as strong as they are indicating. I'm not sure how well the models are handling the persistent convection to the SE

I don’t see why you’re saying he’s closer to the Cape than he’s supposed to be. His longitude is about where he has been progged to be. So, I think things are looking good for him to very likely miss the US like most major dynamic operational models’ runs continue to show.

[Aric Dunn]

It is sitting right at 78 west right where all the models show the turn.
Key thing is that its about 100 miles south of the model consensus.

I don’t know, Aric. The hour 6 of the 6Z Euro/GFS and hour 12 of the 0Z CMC (8 AM EDT position) all have him due east of Cape Canaveral. Note that the 6Z GFS/Euro took him safely away from the US. Isn’t that about where he was at 8 AM?
Up next: 6Z EPS. But as of now, I’m feeling good about the favored US miss verifying. Note that the 6Z Euro was a little east of the 0Z Euro. That’s a good sign for the US.

Right but what i was saying was its at the farthest west point so it cant go any farther or we have problems and its pretty much stalled. It needs to travel about 50 to 100 miles. (Need recon) in less than 6 hours now. It should turn in the next 4 to 6 hours but it needs to get north more otherwise it will be south of the consensus

[ScottNAtlanta]

Winds up to 55kts, pressure down to 997mbars. Despite its appearance, it's strengthening.

Where are you getting that info?

https://tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/

I wonder where Levi is getting it from. As far as I can tell there hasn't been a recon in the system since 5am and the NHC has it at 1000mb and 60mph

[cycloneye]

12z Best Track up to 55 kts.

AL, 09, 2019091512, , BEST, 0, 286N, 778W, 55, 997, TS

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Where are you getting that info?

https://tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/

I wonder where Levi is getting it from. As far as I can tell there hasn't been a recon in the system since 5am and the NHC has it at 1000mb and 60mph

His site is updated by the ATCF, or the data that the NHC runs into the models before the 00z, 12z, et cetera runs, and which cycloneye just posted. When it doesn't reflect the 11am advisory is when the NHC changes their minds based on new data.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Maybe I'm not seeing something, but either its not stacked or its slightly west of 78, and on WV loop the first avenue for it to go out on is quickly closing. The High is building south to its east. Is it the next weakness that is supposed to take it out?

[LarryWx]

12z Best Track up to 55 kts.

AL, 09, 2019091512, , BEST, 0, 286N, 778W, 55, 997, TS

- This says he was at 28.6 N, 77.8 W at 8AM EDT.
- The 5 AM advisory had him at 28.3 N, 77.7 W at 5 AM.
- The 5 AM advisory had him progged at 29.0 N, 77.9 W as of 2 PM.

Based on this info, he looks to be right on track and I see no reason for the US to worry right now.

[MJGarrison]

Are the track comparisons you all are doing against NHC track or the models?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[LarryWx]

Are the track comparisons you all are doing against NHC track or the models?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Both. He’s right on track to miss the US per both NHC and strong model consensus.

[Emmett_Brown]

Just doing a little wobble watching... seems to be wobbling a bit W with overall little motion for the past 2-3 hours. But, as Larry and others have pointed out, the overall long term smoothed out motion seems on track.

[LarryWx]

12z Best Track up to 55 kts.

AL, 09, 2019091512, , BEST, 0, 286N, 778W, 55, 997, TS

- This says he was at 28.6 N, 77.8 W at 8AM EDT.
- The 5 AM advisory had him at 28.3 N, 77.7 W at 5 AM.
- The 5 AM advisory had him progged at 29.0 N, 77.9 W as of 2 PM.

Based on this info, he looks to be right on track and I see no reason for the US to worry right now.

- NHC 5AM position: 28.3 N, 77.7 W
- 8 AM position: 28.6 N, 77.8 W
- NHC 11 AM position: 28.9 N, 77.9 W
- NHC 5 AM prog for 2 PM: 29.0 N, 77.9 W

So, right on track and no need to worry right now and hopefully for good in the SE US.

[1900hurricane]

Starting to get hints of a banding eye on visible imagery.

[1900hurricane]

 https://twitter.com/1900hurricane/status/1173251936180740096

[Kazmit]

NHC seems very confident with their forecast in their latest discussion.

[gigabite]

HUMBERTO 9/15/2019 forecast tract plotted over the year/year Sea Surface Temperature difference