ATL: IMELDA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[HouTXmetro]

If the 'no name' storm that hit CFL in 2011 didn't get classified, neither should this one.

IMO, a storm is a storm if it meets all the criteria. The NHC shouldn't be equivocating based on external factors. Call a strike a strike and a ball a ball.

[jasons2k]

There's a weak low on the Texas coast, and it could be called a depression, given what the NHC has classified as depressions in the recent past. However, doing so as it is moving ashore would only cause confusion. The local NWS offices are handling the rainfall threat just fine without having to explain that this "depression" is not going to blow your house away with hurricane-force winds. If the same system was a day or two from shore, then, yeah, upgrade it because it may have the potential to become a strong TS or hurricane. Saying that a tropical depression is moving inland today won't help coastal residents.

Oh, and rain from this system at my home in SW Houston is now up to 0.12"! Heaviest rain in over a month! I think it would take 5-10 inches of rain to water my lawn at this point.

http://wxman57.com/images/98L.JPG

Upgrading should be purely a scientific call.

This is no doubt a Tropical Depression by the textbook definition.

I've seen named tropical storms that looked less impressive and less organized than 98L does on satellite, and I've been doing this a long time.

[HouTXmetro]

There's a weak low on the Texas coast, and it could be called a depression, given what the NHC has classified as depressions in the recent past. However, doing so as it is moving ashore would only cause confusion. The local NWS offices are handling the rainfall threat just fine without having to explain that this "depression" is not going to blow your house away with hurricane-force winds. If the same system was a day or two from shore, then, yeah, upgrade it because it may have the potential to become a strong TS or hurricane. Saying that a tropical depression is moving inland today won't help coastal residents.

Oh, and rain from this system at my home in SW Houston is now up to 0.12"! Heaviest rain in over a month! I think it would take 5-10 inches of rain to water my lawn at this point.

http://wxman57.com/images/98L.JPG

Upgrading should be purely a scientific call.

This is no doubt a Tropical Depression by the textbook definition.

I've seen named tropical storms that looked less impressive and less organized than 98L does on satellite, and I've been doing this a long time.

Seems like they don't want to be stuck going through the official procedures and writing up the the detailed forecas/impacts when they can just pass it off to the local NWS offices soon. Kinda lazy if you ask me.

[Aric Dunn]

There's a weak low on the Texas coast, and it could be called a depression, given what the NHC has classified as depressions in the recent past. However, doing so as it is moving ashore would only cause confusion. The local NWS offices are handling the rainfall threat just fine without having to explain that this "depression" is not going to blow your house away with hurricane-force winds. If the same system was a day or two from shore, then, yeah, upgrade it because it may have the potential to become a strong TS or hurricane. Saying that a tropical depression is moving inland today won't help coastal residents.

Oh, and rain from this system at my home in SW Houston is now up to 0.12"! Heaviest rain in over a month! I think it would take 5-10 inches of rain to water my lawn at this point.

http://wxman57.com/images/98L.JPG

Upgrading should be purely a scientific call.

This is no doubt a Tropical Depression by the textbook definition.

I've seen named tropical storms that looked less impressive and less organized than 98L does on satellite, and I've been doing this a long time.

This is absolutely a TD. There are more than enough surface and radar obs to support an upgrade. still has few hours before it is ashore. most likely will be upgraded post season.

[GCANE]

Looking at radar, seems the CoC is tightening up and slightly moving to the east.

[1900hurricane]

The 12Z CAM members of SPC's HREF are rolling in and about through tau 24. Looks like most paint a few inches mostly confined along the coast by tomorrow morning.

[1900hurricane]

Pretty straightforward to find the center using surface obs.

[Jr0d]

If the 'no name' storm that hit CFL in 2011 didn't get classified, neither should this one.

IMO, a storm is a storm if it meets all the criteria. The NHC shouldn't be equivocating based on external factors. Call a strike a strike and a ball a ball.

The latest satellite looks like it's consoliding...i do think it meets the criteria to be classified. However, Not sure if TS winds are there

[GCANE]

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1173981031029866496

[Aric Dunn]

CMAN FPST2 has a sustained wind of 30mph in light rain.. when those heavier bands come in. I bet we see TS sustained.

[StormLogic]

WRF-ARW models spins this up along the coast TD or TS

[stormlover2013]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 1712&fh=12

I hope this isn't a trend

[Steve]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=rgem&region=scus&pkg=apcpn&runtime=2019091712&fh=12

I hope this isn't a trend

RGEM has been one of the most aggressive for rainfall the last couple of days.

[Nancy Smar]

Special Outlook issued to update discussion on low pressure near
the Texas coast.

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Humberto, located more than 500 miles west of Bermuda. The
National Hurricane center is also issuing advisories on newly
formed Tropical Depression Ten, located more than 1000 miles east of
the Leeward Islands.

Updated: Recent satellite, radar, and surface data show that the
area of low pressure located over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico
near the Texas coast has become better defined this morning. The
associated thunderstorm activity has also increased and become a
little better organized. If these development trends continue, a
tropical depression could form before the system moves inland later
today or tonight, but significant additional development is not
likely once the system moves inland.

Regardless of development, heavy rainfall and flooding remain the
primary hazards with this system. This disturbance is expected to
produce total rainfall accumulations of 5 to 10 inches with isolated
maximum totals of 15 inches across the upper coastal region of Texas
into far southwest Louisiana through Thursday. This rainfall may
produce life-threatening flash floods. For additional information,
see products issued by your local weather forecast office and the
Weather Prediction Center.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

[jasons2k]

This is going to bust north and west of downtown Houston. Center is east of the models and models are already tending east.

[GCANE]

Sea breezes are done.
Its time to rock and roll.

[Aric Dunn]

bunch of rotating storms starting to show up offshore. winds about 3000 feet are well into the 40mph range.

[wxman57]

Low center appears to be on the coast now. Low on the map a few posts above is too far offshore. Note the WNW wind right along the coast.

[Aric Dunn]

Low center appears to be on the coast now. Low on the map a few posts above is too far offshore. Note the WNW wind right along the coast.

No. Roughly here. surface obs indicate it is still offshore.

no doubt. another few hours it will be onshore.

[GCANE]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1173992352001642497