ATL: THREE - Remnants - Discussion

[N2FSU]

From the 11:36am WPC Discussion:

... A cold front is expected to be off the Eastern Seaboard
on day 3 (Wed), with the trailing end of the front extending from
the Florida Panhandle/northern Peninsula to South Texas. Models
show consensus that this front should slow or occasionally stall
as a few waves of low pressure move along it through late in the
week, very slowly moving the front further south/east, with the
trailing portion of the boundary gradually washing out.

[floridasun78]

it look running out time almost over Bahamas all storms are east of center look shear and bit dry air

[AutoPenalti]

Looks to be slowing down a bit, trying to wrap convection around the LLC.

[Aric Dunn]

Looks to be slowing down a bit, trying to wrap convection around the LLC.

looking at everything. at least what I can find. things are moistening up. IF there is enough convergence they eventually it will reach saturation and then off we go.. next 24 hours will tell all.

[abajan]

This came out of nowhere. It doesn't appear to have any model support.

Well, at least one model (the one many like to ridicule) sniffed it out:
viewtopic.php?p=2749700#p2749700

[northjaxpro]

Possibly. We will know more about this potentially slowing down in a few more hours..Convection could begin to fire up again as the LLC traverses over the Central Bahamas tonight. I think if we see this happen, then game.on folks!

[Aric Dunn]

:uarrow: Possibly. We will know more about this potentially slowing down in a few more hours..Convection could begin to fire up again as the LLC trverses over the Central Bahamas tonight. I think if we see this happen, then game.on folks!

yeah it is coming to the turning point, the edge of the ridge which extends into the eastern gulf at the moment. in the next 24 hrs so slowing down is inevitable.

[AutoPenalti]

Convection trying to fire again, it’s been mainly skeletal throughout the day. Maybe as we approach DMAX we’ll see some popcorn convection.

[wxman57]

No LLC. Not much of any wave axis, either. Development chances pretty low.

[Aric Dunn]

No LLC. Not much of any wave axis, either. Development chances pretty low.

http://wxman57.com/images/94La.JPG

Your surface obs are far east of the very sharp wave axis and nearly closed circ. would not take much to close it off. once it slows down assuming the environment is indeed becoming more moist then seeing this try to make a run is quite possible.

from earlier of course. but the overall structure has maintained or slightly improved since.

[Hurricane Jed]

No LLC. Not much of any wave axis, either. Development chances pretty low.

http://wxman57.com/images/94La.JPG

We can’t discount it either

[HURRICANELONNY]

What makes me laugh. Is the local mets are using a cone like it's a storm. The path right through Florida. Ratings must be down.

[artist]

MODS, getting alot of network connection lost errors.

[Nimbus]

Shear from the west keeps all the popcorn convection from building over the lowest surface pressure.
If the shear lightens up it might make depression status near south Florida but NHC hasn't given it much chance in the short term.

[Aric Dunn]

well at least it will be in radar range by morning...

[psyclone]

Not optimistic on this one. The NHC's 1 in five shot seems plenty generous.. but it is a reminder that August is coming.

[tolakram]

SLIDER as the sun sets.

http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&z=3&im=12&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=0&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider&sec=conus&p%5B0%5D=band_02&x=7028&y=6157

[cycloneye]

Down to 10% in 5 days.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sun Jul 21 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A trough of low pressure over the Central Bahamas is producing
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental
conditions are likely to be unfavorable for significant
development during the next couple of days while the trough moves
westward to west-northwestward at around 15 mph. Development is not
anticipated after that time due to strong upper-level winds.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

Forecaster Blake

[boca]

I think 94L gets deactivated by tomorrow it looks like crap right now.

[floridasun78]

aric dunn too next invest this one done i know chance were very low dryair now shear going finish it only thing we may get here rainy day if dont die out