ATL: HUMBERTO - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[gatorcane]

Looks like it continues to organize but it is like crickets on here tonight because it is not a CONUS threat.

[GCANE]

Looks like it might be in the early stages of building an eyewall.

[GCANE]

[GCANE]

Looks like all the vorts have just suddenly stacked.

[LarryWx]

A stronger system hopefully will increase the chance even higher that it will never come back to the CONUS. Of course, this could be bad news for Bermuda.

He appears to be moving quite steadily to me. This faster the better for the CONUS so as to minimize the chance it will come back to the CONUS. He is probably going to slow down before the expected acceleration to the E/NE. Don’t let that slowdown fool you as it is forecasted by the model consensus.

[boca]

Looks like Humberto is moving NNE last few hours.

[Aric Dunn]

Looks like it stalled per recon So the mid level and low level are stacked. Still sw shear giving the appearance of it movin

[Ucfkid]

I live in nsb and the weather was worse today than hurricane Dorian. Lots of wind around 15 mph with gusts up to 20. Killer waves and on/off rain.

[Aric Dunn]

Mlc is prety much sheared to the ne of center.

Its looks almost exposed

[LarryWx]

Mlc is prety much sheared to the ne of center.

Its looks almost exposed

I just saw he moved only 0.2 N 5PM-11PM! Needless to say, I was surprised and deceived by IR. Ironically, this being nearly exposed in addition to slowing is not necessarily the best news for FL. No need to panic by any means, but most of the members that have been later hitting FL were weak in addition to being further south.
Aric, your thoughts?

[Aric Dunn]

Mlc is prety much sheared to the ne of center.

Its looks almost exposed

I just saw he moved only 0.2 N 5PM-11PM! Needless to say, I was surprised and deceived by IR. Ironically, this being nearly exposed in addition to slowing is not necessarily the best news for FL. No need to panic by any means, but most of the members that have been later hitting FL were weak in addition to being further south.
Aric, your thoughts?

Well the low level ridging is stronger than the mid level to its east. So it could be shearing out.

[Stormi]

We're getting an outer band here at home & it's given us more than Dorian did in under 30 minutes Needless to say, this was an immediate excuse to have to run out & put the car in the garage.

[Aric Dunn]

It has about 6 hours or less on current heading before it passes west of all the models.

[sponger]

We're getting an outer band here at home & it's given us more than Dorian did in under 30 minutes Needless to say, this was an immediate excuse to have to run out & put the car in the garage.

Get some Stormi! Weather nuts everywhere can relate!

[sponger]

There is zero chance this blob is moving.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... product=ir

[GCANE]

Looks like a low-level jet is hitting the east side of the CoC.
Towers trying to fire, but getting their heads chopped.
Vort column appears to be tilted to the NE with altitude up to 250mb.
Very unstable.

[wx98]

Recon went all the way out to the edge of Humberto, did two small loops and went all the way back to base. Something must’ve happened.

[ScottNAtlanta]

It looks to me like the center has reformed to the west looking at the couple of visible frames I can see, but this is not going to deepen with that convective blob to the SE maintaining itself. They are both fighting for convergence right now...as JB likes to say too many pigs at the troff

[Aric Dunn]

It is sitting right at 78 west right where all the models show the turn.
Key thing is that its about 100 miles south of the model consensus.

What will it do ? That is the question. Any more west and we have issues

[ScottNAtlanta]

It is sitting right at 78 west right where all the models show the turn.
Key thing is that its about 100 miles south of the model consensus.

What will it do ? That is the question. Any more west and we have issues

I have never thought this was a done deal out to sea. That blob to the SE is not going to allow much deepening while its still there fighting for convergence.