ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Michele B]

The north side of Grand Bahama has much shallower water. So it probably wouldn't take long for upwelling to occur.

http://tropicwatch.info/grandbahama09022019.png

The thought occurred to me with some of those low lying areas, you could have permanent passes created with all this storm surge...literally island cut into pieces

That happened during Hurricane Michael at the St. Joseph State Park in Port St. Joe Fl.

It happened in Charley, too with sanibel Island. I don't know if it became a permanent pass, tho. Haven't followed up on it.

[GCANE]

Nearly off the scale rain rate recorded 3 hrs ago in Dorian's southern eyewall.
This and no indication so far of an EWRC shows Dorian holding his own and could ramp once back out in the water.

[tropicwatch]

The north side of Grand Bahama has much shallower water. So it probably wouldn't take long for upwelling to occur.

http://tropicwatch.info/grandbahama09022019.png

When the waters are shallow, there is no upwelling

Maybe not upwelling but water temp will cool faster then. How is that?

[drewschmaltz]

Some people on Grand Bahama have been in the eye for over 7 hours...

I have a fear there may be large loss of life — and everything else. 150+mph winds for that long... how does anything survive? And so much of it washed away. Is there any analog for such a horrible event?

[SunnyThoughts]

https://www.pscp.tv/w/1zqKVEykBePxB

Live cam from Freeport bahamas (thanks to whomever posted it earlier)

[NDG]

Just wow, I guess that's a wrap up on the first EWRC, now a much bigger eye has developed, so cool to see it on radar.

[tropicwatch]

The north side of Grand Bahama has much shallower water. So it probably wouldn't take long for upwelling to occur.

http://tropicwatch.info/grandbahama09022019.png

When the waters are shallow, there is no upwelling

Maybe not upwelling but water temp will cool faster then. How is that? Plus water temp at 80 feet is much cooler than at the surface. Sow probably some upwelling.

[Mouton]

But hasn't 93L been there all along? And not had much influence on Dorian? Why would it now?[/quote]

93L appears to be forming up much better on the Sat this AM. It is at the tail of the trough and will begin a more north east motion. I don't expect it to interfer with Dorian, just with the ridge. I wish that trough were in front of Dorian but it is half a country away from it.

[ronjon]

The north side of Grand Bahama has much shallower water. So it probably wouldn't take long for upwelling to occur.

http://tropicwatch.info/grandbahama09022019.png

When the waters are shallow, there is no upwelling

Yes quite the opposite. Since they are shallow, less deep oceanic heat content to strengthen the storm. Seeing the effects of this plus ERC which will lead to slow weakening trend.

[GCANE]

Still has the pink donut

[Michele B]

I didn't realiZe a storm could do EWRC while over land. Not that it's much more than a sliver, but STILL....

I would have thought the very shallow waters would have had an effect, too. I guess this storm will be studied for decades. Lots of records broken.

[Sanibel]

Abaco got slammed and they are probably still being buffered by strong winds...

[GTStorm]

Doesn't it look like it's started a bit of a movement towards the north? If so, good news!

[ronjon]

Eye has expanded...looks to have completed an ERC.

[ronjon]

I didn't realiZe a storm could do EWRC while over land. Not that it's much more than a sliver, but STILL....

I would have thought the very shallow waters would have had an effect, too. I guess this storm will be studied for decades. Lots of records broken.

These islands are small and barely above sea level. They are not land in the classic sense of the continent and do not provide significant impediments to this hurricane.

[supercane4867]

The ERC seems to be finished based on radar, but you can see another bigger outer eyewall is developing on microwave. The hurricane force wind field is going to be HUGE

[AutoPenalti]

Doesn't it look like it's started a bit of a movement towards the north? If so, good news!

It’s the EWRC.

[SEASON_CANCELED]

Some people on Grand Bahama have been in the eye for over 7 hours...

I have a fear there may be large loss of life — and everything else. 150+mph winds for that long... how does anything survive? And so much of it washed away. Is there any analog for such a horrible event?

Nothing that I can think of in hurricane history...not that long.

Florida should probably prepare for refugees

[SEASON_CANCELED]

Doesn't it look like it's started a bit of a movement towards the north? If so, good news!

Its wobbling

[NDG]

When the waters are shallow, there is no upwelling

Maybe not upwelling but water temp will cool faster then. How is that? Plus water temp at 80 feet is much cooler than at the surface. Sow probably some upwelling.

Yes they do cool off faster but only if the ambient temperature is much cooler, those shallow waters were in the mid to upper 80s to begin with. What really weakens the hurricanes is when it sits over deep water with a very shallow warm layer with much cooler waters underneath after upwelling starts happening bringing up those sub 80 deg water temps up to the surface.