ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Mouton]

Frankly it almost looks like a east wobble over the past few minutes but it is definitely stopped as forecast. The guys at the NHC have doubled down on 00 on this one for sure and I hope they are correct. Last reading 165MPH winds at 916mbs. Hopefully we have seen the top and it does a steady decline from here but as Levi said last evening, even a decline in power is not great news inasmuch as the storm will expand its wind field. Currently it is relatively compact. In JAX they expect it to run by around 80W as a CAT 3 48 hrs from now which would be Mathew like but much stronger.

I keep a close eye on my Barometer it is 29.95 rising so it is not falling like it was late yesterday when I suggested it could be due to weakness forming in the ridge. This is not good news. So, the ridge is hanging in around 1016mbs. Trough is making progress into central Ga but the steering currents are not strong. Some dry air will come down but aside from that I still do not see the impetus to move this anything beyond the 280 heading over at least the next 24 hours. I am fearful 93L will also become a player regarding the trough progress.

I guess my message is do not drop your guard if anywhere on Fl or Ga within 50 miles from the coastline as there can still be a hard landing in the area north of Vero Beach.

[Bluehawk]

Anyone down is South Florida, how were those bands that came through this morning? Also that training rain tail in the Keys with the slow storm motion needs to be watched.

Not so south here, but we are right west of it, in Boca Raton. We had some gusts around 7-8 am, and it's overcast, but nothing serious yet. Just a little bit of rain.

[toad strangler]

I haven’t seen much -removed-. There was a group very skeptical about W rolling Dorian stalling out but even that wasn’t -removed-. Just concerns

[northjaxpro]

Frankly it almost looks like a east wobble over the past few minutes but it is definitely stopped as forecast. The guys at the NHC have doubled down on 00 on this one for sure and I hope they are correct. Last reading 165MPH winds at 916mbs. Hopefully we have seen the top and it does a steady decline from here but as Levi said last evening, even a decline in power is not great news inasmuch as the storm will expand its wind field. Currently it is relatively compact. In JAX they expect it to run by around 80W as a CAT 3 48 hrs from now which would be Mathew like but much stronger.

I keep a close eye on my Barometer it is 29.95 rising so it is not falling like it was late yesterday when I suggested it could be due to weakness forming in the ridge. This is not good news. So, the ridge is hanging in around 1016mbs. Trough is making progress into central Ga but the steering currents are not strong. Some dry air will come down but aside from that I still do not see the impetus to move this anything beyond the 280 heading over at least the next 24 hours. I am fearful 93L will also become a player regarding the trough progress.

I guess my message is do not drop your guard if anywhere on Fl or Ga within 50 miles from the coastline as there can still be a hard landing in the area north of Vero Beach.

We said Mouton!!

[kunosoura]

Anyone down is South Florida, how were those bands that came through this morning? Also that training rain tail in the Keys with the slow storm motion needs to be watched.

Nonevent in Jupiter appx. 1/2 mile E of I95. It was breezier yesterday in fact. Watching closely, may put up shutters today.

[xironman]

It would be nice if we can improve models so they could have detected there we would have been a weaknesses in the ridge to turn this hurricane east. Look at the hurricane center track animation since last week. Looked like Florida was a shoe-in hit just 4 days out at one point then look what happened. Also these models really missed on intensity until we got closer in:

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2019/D ... _with_line

Yeah, they have admitted forecasting intensity has always been a problem with their models. There have to be factors working to cause a storm to weaken or strengthen that they haven't figured out yet.

Remember this is not in the deep tropics anymore and is being effected by mid-latitude weather which is a completely different beast. The troughs causing the stall and turn were in the middle of the Pacific when the runs were made and there is no one putting out balloons there. Better data and you would have better results.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Looks right on course to be honest. We're focusing too much on small wobbles; it'll be an unexpected 3-4 hour trend back west that'll spell danger for Florida.

Charleston needs to be on the lookout if the GFS/HWRF is to be believed.

[Michele B]

Frankly it almost looks like a east wobble over the past few minutes but it is definitely stopped as forecast. The guys at the NHC have doubled down on 00 on this one for sure and I hope they are correct. Last reading 165MPH winds at 916mbs. Hopefully we have seen the top and it does a steady decline from here but as Levi said last evening, even a decline in power is not great news inasmuch as the storm will expand its wind field. Currently it is relatively compact. In JAX they expect it to run by around 80W as a CAT 3 48 hrs from now which would be Mathew like but much stronger.

I keep a close eye on my Barometer it is 29.95 rising so it is not falling like it was late yesterday when I suggested it could be due to weakness forming in the ridge. This is not good news. So, the ridge is hanging in around 1016mbs. Trough is making progress into central Ga but the steering currents are not strong. Some dry air will come down but aside from that I still do not see the impetus to move this anything beyond the 280 heading over at least the next 24 hours. I am fearful 93L will also become a player regarding the trough progress.

I guess my message is do not drop your guard if anywhere on Fl or Ga within 50 miles from the coastline as there can still be a hard landing in the area north of Vero Beach.

But hasn't 93L been there all along? And not had much influence on Dorian? Why would it now?

[tropicwatch]

The north side of Grand Bahama has much shallower water. So it probably wouldn't take long for upwelling to occur.

[jhpigott]

Anyone down is South Florida, how were those bands that came through this morning? Also that training rain tail in the Keys with the slow storm motion needs to be watched.

Nonevent in Jupiter appx. 1/2 mile E of I95. It was breezier yesterday in fact. Watching closely, may put up shutters today.

Juno Beach had a 47mph guest earlier with a rain band. Curious to see how close the W - SW extent of the rain shield gets to our coast the next 24-48 hours. WPTV mets had a graphic up showing hurricane wind gusts getting close to the coast from WPB up thru Treasure Coast. We'll see . . .

[SEASON_CANCELED]

The north side of Grand Bahama has much shallower water. So it probably wouldn't take long for upwelling to occur.

http://tropicwatch.info/grandbahama09022019.png

The thought occurred to me with some of those low lying areas, you could have permanent passes created with all this storm surge...literally island cut into pieces

[Full8s]

So I often wonder about the odd mentality behind -removed-.
Have any of you done any research on the psychology behind this seemingly counter-intuitive phenomenon?

Its like anything else..proving you are right releases dopamine

That seems overly simplified. Proving you are right, at the expense of wanting to be in a dangerous storm?? I'm truly fascinated by the concept.

[toad strangler]

Once Dorian gets picked up it begins what to me is a classic climo recurve while slowly unraveling. This should keep most people on the W side of him as this happens.

[tropicwatch]

The north side of Grand Bahama has much shallower water. So it probably wouldn't take long for upwelling to occur.

http://tropicwatch.info/grandbahama09022019.png

The thought occurred to me with some of those low lying areas, you could have permanent passes created with all this storm surge...literally island cut into pieces

That happened during Hurricane Michael at the St. Joseph State Park in Port St. Joe Fl.

[SEASON_CANCELED]

So I often wonder about the odd mentality behind -removed-.
Have any of you done any research on the psychology behind this seemingly counter-intuitive phenomenon?

Its like anything else..proving you are right releases dopamine

That seems overly simplified. Proving you are right, at the expense of wanting to be in a dangerous storm?? I'm truly fascinated by the concept.

You are human. You are nothing but a dopamine. Feedback loop...everything you do is rewarded by dopamine.

It doesnt matter of damage is created, you are correct. Your assessment is correct and a scenario is created where ypur expertise may be sought in future...thus you socially have secured an importance to humanity and the tribe.

This is way off topic so im not gonna take it further

[Sanibel]

Some people on Grand Bahama have been in the eye for over 7 hours...

[kunosoura]

Anyone down is South Florida, how were those bands that came through this morning? Also that training rain tail in the Keys with the slow storm motion needs to be watched.

Nonevent in Jupiter appx. 1/2 mile E of I95. It was breezier yesterday in fact. Watching closely, may put up shutters today.

Juno Beach had a 47mph guest earlier with a rain band. Curious to see how close the W - SW extent of the rain shield gets to our coast the next 24-48 hours. WPTV mets had a graphic up showing hurricane wind gusts getting close to the coast from WPB up thru Treasure Coast. We'll see . . .

Thanks for the obs. I'm most concerned currently with an expanding windfield should an ERC indeed take place. The Euro forecasted gusts for tomorrow have me most concerned at the moment.

[NDG]

The north side of Grand Bahama has much shallower water. So it probably wouldn't take long for upwelling to occur.

http://tropicwatch.info/grandbahama09022019.png

When the waters are shallow, there is no upwelling

[mrbagyo]

Some people on Grand Bahama have been in the eye for over 7 hours...

And some are also in the violent Eyewall for almost the same period of time.

[ThetaE]

The north side of Grand Bahama has much shallower water. So it probably wouldn't take long for upwelling to occur.

http://tropicwatch.info/grandbahama09022019.png

The thought occurred to me with some of those low lying areas, you could have permanent passes created with all this storm surge...literally island cut into pieces

This has happened along the Outer Banks of NC, with weaker storms. It's definitely a possibility.

Also, can *up*welling occur in shallow water? The idea that the Hurricane's winds mix warm surface water with cooler water below. What cooler water is there to mix when it's all so shallow? I genuinely don't know what will happen.