ATL: KAREN - Models

[floridasun78]

let we see weakness later runs as we saw with dorian and we hope but not over bahamas

[ronjon]

Have to believe the long range model runs are only good for general synoptics and these will change also. Karen's speed in the Euro is not believable given the strong ridging - more watching and waiting in the days ahead.

[kevin]

Guess it'll be more anxious model watching the next few days, looking for shifts in the ensembles until out of nowhere they all shift back.

[stormlover2013]

I actually buy this if a cold front comes to fruition

[ronjon]

If Karen really does take that long to reach the US east coast longtitude than its likely to go OTS.

[LarryWx]

12Z Euro 228-140: turned NNW.

Another amazing run with lots of drama but in this case because nobody expected it to slow down suddenly 400 miles offshore S FL!

[nativefloridian]

And this is how it ends...
https://i.imgur.com/RpNueQu.png

.....until the next run.

[boca]

I like mine crunchy with BBQ sauce but honestly it’s seems difficult to get a hit from a hurricane from the east any time of year. We usually get hit from the Western Caribbean.

[Jr0d]

And pretty soon to say that, too. 8 day margin for error has to be over 500 miles

With only one road out from Key West, it's good to be prepared. Always have a plan for the season, then as a threat approaches start executing it. On a scale of 0-5, with 0 being no need to evacuate and 5 being run like hell, I'd say I'm at a 1.

Today's Euro is a bit slower too. This gives more time for a trough to pick Karen up. Had Dorian not been much slower than originally forecast it could have easily been a direct hit to Florida. The speed forward speed is crucial if Karen turns west.

That said I am not going to read too much into the models until Karen moves North of Puerto Rico.

[AtlanticWind]

Hard to imagine everything will evolve this slowly, but maybe

[northjaxpro]

Folks, we are in for some long days and nights of model watching with Karen. It could be days before we get clarity and continuity from the models with this storm. What a season it has been huh.. Still more of this to come in October

[toad strangler]

Euro holds on to this stout ridge. I just don't put much stock in the final few days of that 12z Euro run with the persistent ridge to the N.

[otowntiger]

And this is how it ends...
https://i.imgur.com/RpNueQu.png

.....until the next run.

Looks like it is going north at that point, correct?

[blp]

What moves it out is not a trough but just the Ridge moving positions. Amazing how quickly the ridge readjusts from 192-240hrs.

192hr


215hr


240hr

[Frank2]

Let's not forget Irma - almost a sure thing to hit SE Florida as a Cat 4 but no one could forecast it's trip over Cuba's archipelagro which weakened it and caused it to landfall on Marco Island as a low end Cat 3, so never say never : )

[sma10]

I'll play master of the obvious for a moment. For this particular storm, the models could hardly get it right between 8am this morning and noon. Gotta figure that the 8-10 day forecast might have a bit of wriggle room - for both track AND intensity.

[jlauderdal]

It doesn’t look like I’ll be eating crow because Karen will curve north and out.

I'm glad you didn't start eating your crow yet. I hate to waste good food. May I please have your crow?

The crow will be waiting at the meating place in boca but nobody gets the crow yet, still plenty of model runs to go....models haven't handled today well so lets just get to weds and see how that goes

[chris_fit]

LarryWX how them EPS lookin'?

[La Sirena]

Let's not forget Irma - almost a sure thing to hit SE Florida as a Cat 4 but no one could forecast it's trip over Cuba's archipelagro which weakened it and caused it to landfall on Marco Island as a low end Cat 3, so never say never : )

Irma first made landfall in the Keys as a Cat 4. If I remember correctly, it had weakened to a Cat 3 after interaction with Cuba and then intensified again prior to Big Pine Key/Cudjoe area.

[chris_fit]