ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[MrStormX]

Dorian is stalling in a good place if you are hoping that it will weaken. Plenty of land friction and shallow water over Grand Bahama.

Not at all good for the people who live there though. The only positive takeaway is that the east side of the island is very sparsely populated. From what I can tell, there are only a few (very small) fishing villages bearing the full brunt of the eastern eyewall at the moment. I pray those people evacuated. Hoping Freeport remains out of the thick of it.

[AtlanticWind]

Will likely crawl WNW from this point next 18 to 24 hours

[MrStormX]

When you're sitting in your home 125 miles slightly north of west from a record setting hurricane heading west and wobbling south, you're perspective on wobbles changes.
When your current closest path of the NHC track places the center of this beast 50nm to your ENE and it wobbles west then your perspective changes.
We're sitting here in Palm Beach County on a knife edge of either celebrating a minimal pass of a record setting storm or getting very real damage.
So, I am worried........

You are worried as you rightfully should be. Regardless of the exact track, you will experience effects from this storm, that is a fact. I live within the cone of uncertainty in North Carolina. Like you, small changes in track could be the difference between getting some light showers and blustery wind and being put out of my home. I am reticent of this reality.

My point is that a wobble alone should not induce a fear that the track put forth by the National Hurricane Center is somehow wrong, and that professional meteorologists have no idea what is going on. Small track deviations that are within the margin of error are also within the current NHC forecast, and hence nothing to lose sleep over (on top of the sleep that is already lost being in the path of a hurricane). Larger deviations from the median line are a much bigger concern, but it takes many hours to verify those, and the NHC acts quickly to inform the public and update the forecast when these deviations occur. I believe such an event happened with Ike in 2008 when the models failed to predict unseen variability in the mid-level ridge. When a storm is close to the coast, that is when small deviations are really scary - but by then I would hope that most people would have evacuated inland to somewhere slightly safer.

So when would you recommend evacuating from, say, St Augustine?

Right now. There have been mandatory evacuation orders in place for roughly the past 12 hours. It's never a good idea to wait when a mandatory evacuation has been ordered.

[jasons2k]

The spine of Grand Bahama is about to be significantly wider in Dorian's path, encompassing most of the eyewall. Even though the island is flat, you have to think that the land interaction will contribute to some slight weakening.

[eastcoastFL]

Something is going on with Dorian. Significant warming of clouds on the western side and deep convection well displaced from the center on the eastern side.

I see that too. A lot of cold cloud tops in the far outer bands on the east. If there’s some erosion of the western side that would ease things on the Florida coast a bit.

[birddogsc]

Convection is also warming around the core, and the blob to the se is deeper than the cdo. These are likely the effects of both structural changes and land interaction, and indications that Dorian is slowly weakening.

I wonder if that deeper convection "tail" has an effect of the forward speed or has induced a 360-wobble as sponger says in the models thread?

[HDGator]

Personally I'm not too worried about this slight "wobble", it's within the margin of error of the model guidance and the NHC forecast. These small deviations occur often in tropical cyclones. They can deviate back the other way as well, hence negating the initial deviation. It only becomes extremely problematic when there is a consistent trend of the storm deviating from the line of best fit, or when the storm is immediately adjacent to the coast and it pushes more extreme effects ashore.

Almost every major hurricane to landfall in the U.S. in the past two decades, especially when the steering is weak or when an EWRC is taking place, have exhibited small "wobbles" in their path. We often hear people anthropomorphize these small deviations and say "X storm has a mind of its own".

When you're sitting in your home 125 miles slightly north of west from a record setting hurricane heading west and wobbling south, you're perspective on wobbles changes.
When your current closest path of the NHC track places the center of this beast 50nm to your ENE and it wobbles west then your perspective changes.
We're sitting here in Palm Beach County on a knife edge of either celebrating a minimal pass of a record setting storm or getting very real damage.
So, I am worried........

You are worried as you rightfully should be. Regardless of the exact track, you will experience effects from this storm, that is a fact. I live within the cone of uncertainty in North Carolina. Like you, small changes in track could be the difference between getting some light showers and blustery wind and being put out of my home. I am reticent of this reality.

My point is that a wobble alone should not induce a fear that the track put forth by the National Hurricane Center is somehow wrong, and that professional meteorologists have no idea what is going on. Small track deviations that are within the margin of error are also within the current NHC forecast, and hence nothing to lose sleep over (on top of the sleep that is already lost being in the path of a hurricane). Larger deviations from the median line are a much bigger concern, but it takes many hours to verify those, and the NHC acts quickly to inform the public and update the forecast when these deviations occur. I believe such an event happened with Ike in 2008 when the models failed to predict unseen variability in the mid-level ridge. When a storm is close to the coast, that is when small deviations are really scary - but by then I would hope that most people would have evacuated inland to somewhere slightly safer.

No, wobbles can and should induce concern in the short term when you have a killer storm and the average expected track error at 24h-48h is around 50nm and there are potential drastic changes in impacts based on a record setting 180mph storm. The NHC has an understandable and expected error in their forecast track. At the same time, most of the average public focuses on the thin black line that is published as the track. The location of potential eyewall impact has HUGE impact on damage and should be the real focus on this compact storm.

And yes I'm concerned at this storm that is currently located 108nm at 97 degrees from where I am sitting right now.

[eastcoastFL]

If the stall is indeed taking place now we have to see which direction it drifts and how long it takes to turn to the nw and how fast. So many variables At play. It reAlly is a game of inches at this point.

[jasons2k]

In the last few frames Dorian has practically stalled, and dare I say it, it has wobbled north a tick or two.

[eastcoastFL]

Looks like he hit a brick wall

[eastcoastFL]

In the last few frames Dorian has practically stalled, and dare I say it, it has wobbled north a tick or two.

I see the stall but I don’t see the north movement. Looks like the wobbling is inside the eye itself like the eye seems more elongates than perfectly round.

[HDGator]

In the last few frames Dorian has practically stalled, and dare I say it, it has wobbled north a tick or two.

Watching radar, the eyewall has wobbled back nw and may be starting to disconnect from the overall circulation.

[SapphireSea]

In the last few frames Dorian has practically stalled, and dare I say it, it has wobbled north a tick or two.

I see the stall but I don’t see the north movement. Looks like the wobbling is inside the eye itself like the eye seems more elongates than perfectly round.

Definitely has stalled out. The N was a wobble, but the fact it has completely stopped early may spare Freeport. Needless to say looks like things should adjust eastward from here.

[cheezyWXguy]

Convection is also warming around the core, and the blob to the se is deeper than the cdo. These are likely the effects of both structural changes and land interaction, and indications that Dorian is slowly weakening.

I wonder if that deeper convection "tail" has an effect of the forward speed or has induced a 360-wobble as sponger says in the models thread?

I’m under the impression it’s more likely a result of those changes than a cause, but it’s also important to note that weakening from such a high intensity means it’s still catostrophic. Reducing its winds by almost 40% would still keep it as a major hurricane, and if it does actually manage to make landfall somewhere in Florida, it probably won’t weaken that much before then.

[aperson]

Wobble watching a stalling system that's also undergoing an ERC. Y'all masochists.

[HDGator]

Wobble watching a stalling system that's also undergoing an ERC. Y'all masochists.

When you're 105nm away from the COC you have few choices.

[eastcoastFL]

Wobble watching a stalling system that's also undergoing an ERC. Y'all masochists.

When you're 105nm away from the COC you have few choices.

How far would it be from palm city / Stuart area? Is gardens what 20 miles south?

[JetFan85]

It stopped. Boy I feel for the northern Bahamas. This is big for the FL coast, though.

[eastcoastFL]

In the last few frames Dorian has practically stalled, and dare I say it, it has wobbled north a tick or two.

I see the stall but I don’t see the north movement. Looks like the wobbling is inside the eye itself like the eye seems more elongates than perfectly round.

Definitely has stalled out. The N was a wobble, but the fact it has completely stopped early may spare Freeport. Needless to say looks like things should adjust eastward from here.

It would be great if it were to trend east from here but it supposedly will stall for almost a day and then move NW before turning N and then NE

[MrStormX]

When you're sitting in your home 125 miles slightly north of west from a record setting hurricane heading west and wobbling south, you're perspective on wobbles changes.
When your current closest path of the NHC track places the center of this beast 50nm to your ENE and it wobbles west then your perspective changes.
We're sitting here in Palm Beach County on a knife edge of either celebrating a minimal pass of a record setting storm or getting very real damage.
So, I am worried........

You are worried as you rightfully should be. Regardless of the exact track, you will experience effects from this storm, that is a fact. I live within the cone of uncertainty in North Carolina. Like you, small changes in track could be the difference between getting some light showers and blustery wind and being put out of my home. I am reticent of this reality.

My point is that a wobble alone should not induce a fear that the track put forth by the National Hurricane Center is somehow wrong, and that professional meteorologists have no idea what is going on. Small track deviations that are within the margin of error are also within the current NHC forecast, and hence nothing to lose sleep over (on top of the sleep that is already lost being in the path of a hurricane). Larger deviations from the median line are a much bigger concern, but it takes many hours to verify those, and the NHC acts quickly to inform the public and update the forecast when these deviations occur. I believe such an event happened with Ike in 2008 when the models failed to predict unseen variability in the mid-level ridge. When a storm is close to the coast, that is when small deviations are really scary - but by then I would hope that most people would have evacuated inland to somewhere slightly safer.

No, wobbles can and should induce concern in the short term when you have a killer storm and the average expected track error at 24h-48h is around 50nm and there are potential drastic changes in impacts based on a record setting 180mph storm. The NHC has an understandable and expected error in their forecast track. At the same time, most of the average public focuses on the thin black line that is published as the track. The location of potential eyewall impact has HUGE impact on damage and should be the real focus on this compact storm.

And yes I'm concerned at this storm that is currently located 108nm at 97 degrees from where I am sitting right now.

Respectfully, I think we are saying the same thing here. The small wobbles I am talking about take place within the margin of error and don't have major impacts on the long term trajectory of a storm. When a wobble actually becomes something more than a wobble, then that is a problem (and I think this is what you are talking about). This would be a trend, and a dangerous one at that. We are still far enough out from potential extreme impacts in Florida for the NHC to adjust their thin black line and warn the public and local emergency managers if the trajectory of this hurricane starts trending significantly outside of where it should. The time frame is tight of course, but there is still enough time to evacuate and speed people through their hurricane preparations - but the most vulnerable areas should already be evacuating under the current guidance. The bigger issue is the way that cable news networks and social media outlets report on storms, and many of them ignore NHC guidance and propose their own sensationalist (or cynical) views on hurricanes - but that's a topic for another day.

Wobbles that happen immediately along the coast are very dangerous because there is no time to prepare for those - but I think the NHC has been doing a good job with warning people of this reality over the past few days. I just wish the news networks would back them up.