ATL: KAREN - Models

[chris_fit]

Ridge actually looks to build in some between 168 and 192?

[boca]

It doesn’t look like I’ll be eating crow because Karen will curve north and out.

[sma10]

12Z Euro: Only way this misses FL imo is if it goes south. Weakening like on the 0Z due to shear.

I think this is the 3rd straight day the EURO is taking this toward S. Florida. I'm already thinking about evacuation plan from Key West if there is a chance this will be a major hurricane.

I like the EURO because it has been consistent, I don't like it because it brings Karen way to close for comfort.

It will be interesting to see of the other models start catching up to the EURO or if it needs to make a major adjustment.

Needless to say, I feel like the threat continues to increase for a Florida strike.

Well - might want to table that - this new EURO run might be a game changer, again...

And pretty soon to say that, too. 8 day margin for error has to be over 500 miles

[SouthFLTropics]

I think it goes without saying that a slowdown and/or stall near the Bahamas is not what anyone wants to see. I think the Euro has the general idea of the west turn happening and the NHC has gone all in on that. The question is how far west will it go and what will it be when it gets there. It will be important to watch the trends in the future Euro runs...most notably, this slowdown occurring as well as any uptick in intensity.

[HurricaneFrances04]

I don't see much of a weakness in the last few Euro runs. It looks like it is quickly filled up by a ridge over the Great Plains.

[LarryWx]

12Z Euro: SW shear rose to high levels last few frames. Still hardly moving. Moved only 100 miles 48 hours 162-210 or average of only 2 mph!

[chris_fit]

Weaker at 216

[ronjon]

500 mb ridge actually expanding north and east of Karen at 192 hrs in 12z ECM - its slowing - but may be because its bumping into the ridge or going to move SW.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=us&pkg=z500aNorm&runtime=2019092412&fh=192

[SouthFLTropics]

Just a thought but perhaps that SW shear that you're referring to Larry is coming from the CAG.

[StruThiO]

still goin W

[Emmett_Brown]

Looking at the last 48 hours of Euro runs, the big difference is the speed of Karen's turn W. The ridge doesn't look much different; but on the newer runs, Karen takes longer to start heading W under the ridge due to interaction with Jerry.

[chris_fit]

12Z Euro: SW shear rose to high levels last few frames. Still hardly moving. Moved only 100 miles 48 hours 162-210 or average of only 2 mph!

Shear forecast for 6-7+ days out is a crap shoot

[toad strangler]

Very slow movement at 216 with no apparent escape route. Also, weakening

[chris_fit]

VERY interesting for sure - one of the most interesting for Karen - Curious on what the EPS will show. Will be waiting for you LarryWX

[LarryWx]

12Z Euro: It now looks like it won't hit FL in this run. I like my crow medium well with mustard based BBQ sauce.

[galaxy401]

The potential Florida hit is still only in the end of the Euro model runs. It was like that 2 days ago too. This means that we are still in a lot of uncertainly for a couple more days...

[kevin]

Just as a reminder, these were some of Dorian's model runs 140 - 200 hours before landfall. I know it's a different situation, but let's please not discount the possible long term intensity of a storm because of the global models. They are usually pretty good in terms of track, but long term intensity always seemed like one of their biggest weaknesses to me.

[BobHarlem]

12z Euro yesterday for 12z oct3, south of Ft. Walton. Today's 12z same time, east of Abaco. Huge slow down. Calling it now, it'll keep slowing/shifting right for the next few runs. US hit looking less likely today.

[LarryWx]

It doesn’t look like I’ll be eating crow because Karen will curve north and out.

I'm glad you didn't start eating your crow yet. I hate to waste good food. May I please have your crow?

[chris_fit]

And this is how it ends...