ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[1900hurricane]

Monday, September 2, 1935...Labor Day
Monday, September 2, 2019...Labor Day...
and here we are all watching a hurricane that is probably one of the closest examples of how the 1935 'cane may have looked like, but a little larger and over the Bahamas instead. What a crazy and surreal coincidence ain't it. Couldn't help thinking about the Labor Day storm of 1935 today looking at this monster in awe.

https://i.ibb.co/BcXNjW2/goes16-ir-05-L-201909020207.jpg

If you go into the NAtl Reanalysis data, it actually shows that the 1935 Florida Keys hurricane had a larger rOCI at landfall than Dorian currently has, meaning Dorian is actually the smaller storm. It's actually not even close.

[ozonepete]

At this point I'm extremely annoyed at the headstrong people and meteorologists that are convinced this won't landfall and barely impact land at all. I'm trying to wrap my head around it...I guess certain people are too afraid of being wrong and they have too much pride? You gotta leave your mind open to possibilities here. This isn't a easy forecast at all. I can barely remember another time where every little change mattered like this. A lot of people and mets are going to look like fools if this gets far enough west.

Please be careful about the many people on here who are offering non-professional opinions. They can make you think much worse threats are coming your way than actually are. Watch the NHC. We pro mets on S2K stick with them so we will be proud to be called fools along with them if it comes to that.

[tropicwatch]

Freeport weather station is still up reporting 63mph winds now.

[hurricaneCW]

Unreal how Dorian will slowly roll over Grand Bahama island tonight.

Looks like he's slowly weakening (warming cloud tops) in part due to land interaction but he's still likely a Cat 5 storm.

[Aric Dunn]

Is the eye going to wind up completely south of Grand Bahama or is it just me?

https://i.imgur.com/LkInERE.jpg

It's just you.

Oh Ozonepete.. be nice .. you know its likely to go far enough south to scrape the northern eyewall across grand bahama.. its sucks .. but if it doe snot stop this motion it will..


you know being that its actually already south of it ? lol

[Highteeld]

155 knot FL winds. still packing plenty of clout

[rigbyrigz]

Commenters, model analysis, and NHC use the term "landfall" a lot right now. I have seen meteorological definitions that say it's when the center touches (crosses) land. but does that mean the center of the eye. or any part of the eye (the center of the storm)?

With the close proximity to coast, and the eye ( now 10 but was diameter 15 miles not long ago) possibly quite large, what is the consensus expert view on what exactly is meant by landfall regarding the eye?

[sponger]

There is absolutely zero chance I am staying up for the Euro. None! Who is with me?

[Ian2401]

 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1168384399898902528

[JetFan85]

The turn slightly south of due west recently is concerning. I guess I'm wondering that if it goes south of due west, does that mean it's less likely to get stalled out by what's northwest of it? Because the very south of FL doesn't seem to have as much blocking to it.

[MrStormX]

It's important to keep in mind that many numerical weather forecasting models like the GFS and Euro have a hard time with exceptionally complex weather systems like Dorian. For one, the ridging and steering patterns at play here are unusual. Then you have to factor in that Dorian is far stronger than your average system. Even two forecasters who work for the EMCWF (Deuben and Bauer) have pointed out that these models rely on "simplified assumptions" to optimize parameterization schemes. What that means is that the margin of error when it comes to forecasting the track and intensity of a storm like Dorian is likely going to be higher (although this has not been proven).

Hurricane models on the other hand like the HMON and HWRF are probably slightly better equipped to handle a storm like Dorian, but even here the shear strength and endurance of this system are likely to cause problems for the models. My understanding is that these models have been validated, trained and refined over the years. But it is impossible to train something completely to handle a storm like Dorian which has no modern analogs. But I could be wrong. Just my thought.

As for Levi. I remember when he was just a teenager from Alaska with a love for meteorology. Man, he has come a long way. Mad respect to him

[ozonepete]

Is the eye going to wind up completely south of Grand Bahama or is it just me?

https://i.imgur.com/LkInERE.jpg

It's just you.

Oh Ozonepete.. be nice .. you know its likely to go far enough south to scrape the northern eyewall across grand bahama.. its sucks .. but if it doe snot stop this motion it will..


you know being that its actually already south of it ? lol

Lol Aric, Bob and I go way back and love to kid. He's used to my approach. We'll see if your forecast that Dorian is going to Cuba pans out.

[ozonepete]

There is absolutely zero chance I am staying up for the Euro. None!

Lol you liar.

[tropicwatch]

This might be why we haven't seen a northward component yet.

[Hurricane Andrew]

914.0 on lastest recon pass, no VDM yet. FL winds still 150-155kts.

[Aric Dunn]

It's just you.

Oh Ozonepete.. be nice .. you know its likely to go far enough south to scrape the northern eyewall across grand bahama.. its sucks .. but if it doe snot stop this motion it will..


you know being that its actually already south of it ? lol

Lol Aric, Bob and I go way back and love to kid. He's used to my approach. We'll see if your forecast that Dorian is going to Cuba pans out.

Cuba ? no.. its in the brumuda triangle. it will just vanish later tonight..

[CronkPSU]

1:00 AM EDT Mon Sep 2
Location: 26.6°N 78.0°W
Moving: W at 5 mph
Min pressure: 914 mb
Max sustained: 180 mph

back down to 5 mph movement

[WeatherOrKnot]

Just an observation from Wellington, Florida which is west of west palm beach, in pbc. As of this afternoon, more houses have shutters up than do not. And more were out putting them up when we got home from dinner. So people are taking this storm seriously.

[orion]

Commenters, model analysis, and NHC use the term "landfall" a lot right now. I have seen meteorological definitions that say it's when the center touches (crosses) land. but does that mean the center of the eye. or any part of the eye (the center of the storm)?

With the close proximity to coast, and the eye ( now 10 but was diameter 15 miles not long ago) possibly quite large, what is the consensus expert view on what exactly is meant by landfall regarding the eye?

From NHC... https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml

Landfall:
The intersection of the surface center of a tropical cyclone with a coastline. Because the strongest winds in a tropical cyclone are not located precisely at the center, it is possible for a cyclone's strongest winds to be experienced over land even if landfall does not occur. Similarly, it is possible for a tropical cyclone to make landfall and have its strongest winds remain over the water. Compare direct hit, indirect hit, and strike.

[Hurricane Andrew]

Anyone have a fresh microwave image of Dorian?