ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[GeneratorPower]

https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1168376524120047617

models are likely fully underestimating the ridge pumping likely happening.

stay vigilant florida east coast !

Wouldn’t the bigger ridge be sampled by balloon launches and jet data collection?

[ozonepete]

For those who think this can’t make landfall in Florida the 0zGFS indeed does make landfall near Titusville and looking at how this is moving this could even make landfall a little farther south like port St Lucie so everyone within the eastern 2/3 of Florida north of Melbourne need to have preps done and keep tabs on the situation using official sources like the NWS and NHC

That is not correct. The 00Z GFS does not indicate that. Please be careful of what you state as fact on here. A lot of people are worried.

[lhpfish]

Dr. Rick Knabb seems to be concerned about the south east coast.

[toad strangler]

Mike Lyons S FL Met says don’t fool yourself Dorian WILL turn

[AutoPenalti]

https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1168376524120047617

models are likely fully underestimating the ridge pumping likely happening.

stay vigilant florida east coast !

Wouldn’t the bigger ridge be sampled by balloon launches and jet data collection?

Yes.

[ozonepete]

I would not take a PBC landfall off the table.

Neither would I...

The NHC isn't taking it off the table either. The question is what probablility would you give that it landfalls at PBC. The NHC covers both.

[Vdogg]

For those who think this can’t make landfall in Florida the 0zGFS indeed does make landfall near Titusville and looking at how this is moving this could even make landfall a little farther south like port St Lucie so everyone within the eastern 2/3 of Florida north of Melbourne need to have preps done and keep tabs on the situation using official sources like the NWS and NHC

I’m sorry, but I don’t see landfall. It gets close, but the only landfall I see is in NC. Can you post the particular image that has landfall?

https://tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/mo ... 200&fh=-12
54 hrs

Eye itself is still off the coast. It’s riding the eyewall, but the COC is still over the ocean.

[CrazyC83]

I'm not here to second guess meteorologists either. It seems that Dorian has a mind of its own though...defying everyone, including myself.

How do you personally see the steering currents playing out? Does the ridge break down rapidly enough to allow a turn NW and N to miss the coast?

I think it might come too late to keep the edge of the core offshore, but maybe soon enough to keep the eye itself off. But don't quote me on that - I would say it is 20-30% chance of a landfall, about 60% chance of core offshore and strong winds onshore, 10-15% chance most impacts stay offshore. The stakes are enormous and Dorian is the boss, not me.

[AxaltaRacing24]

Mike Lyons S FL Met says don’t fool yourself Dorian WILL turn

He may be right, but the amount of confidence we have with a cat 5 currently coming at us at 6mph turning is crazy. I cannot help but be at least a little concerned until it passes.

[AutoPenalti]

Mike Lyons S FL Met says don’t fool yourself Dorian WILL turn

Don’t know who the heck that is...

[utweather]

https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1168376524120047617

Yeah I just dont see anything immediately upstream picking this up with my amateur eyes. It looks like an asphalt roller. I hope I'm wrong.

Remember, the first trough isn’t picking this up. All its doing is weakening the mid level ridge thats currently pushing this system west. The collapse in steering currents than makes Dorian stall.

The question is how far west can Dorian get before it stalls? Because the stall and subsequent north turn is happening. But when and where?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Where is this 2nd trough?

[TheDreamTraveler]

https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1168376524120047617

LOL but I was told this isn't the case. Also saw a couple of mets on another board make fun of people for pointing this out and called them out for wobble watching and imagining things.

[toad strangler]

Mike Lyons S FL Met says don’t fool yourself Dorian WILL turn

Don’t know who the heck that is...

I told you who it is. And he just reiterated it right now. Dorian absolutely will turn.

[FireRat]

Monday, September 2, 1935...Labor Day
Monday, September 2, 2019...Labor Day...
and here we are all watching a hurricane that is probably one of the closest examples of how the 1935 'cane may have looked like, but a little larger and over the Bahamas instead. What a crazy and surreal coincidence ain't it. Couldn't help thinking about the Labor Day storm of 1935 today looking at this monster in awe.

[AutoPenalti]

Mike Lyons S FL Met says don’t fool yourself Dorian WILL turn

Don’t know who the heck that is...

I told you who it is. And he just reiterated it right now. Dorian absolutely will turn.

I know he’s an SFL met but is he from WPLG, WSVN...?

[ozonepete]

Is the eye going to wind up completely south of Grand Bahama or is it just me?

https://i.imgur.com/LkInERE.jpg

It's just you.

[1900hurricane]

@Moderators, my connection is a little weak at the moment with uneven loading. There have been some times I've tried to click on something, but something suddenly loads and moves everything on the page. If I've accidentally hit the report post button, please ignore it. Thanks.

[sponger]

Is the eye going to wind up completely south of Grand Bahama or is it just me?

https://i.imgur.com/LkInERE.jpg

It's just you.

Needed that!

[Jevo]

Mike Lyons S FL Met says don’t fool yourself Dorian WILL turn

Oh it will turn..... The when is the unknown

[Vdogg]

eyewall brush is not a landfall.

This is not the storm to split hairs on. Eyewall contact with a landmass will be a serious problem with this particular storm at this stage in its developement, which would be, fully developed.

It’s not splitting hairs, it’s being precise. Landfall has a specific definition. Saying it doesn’t make landfall in no way minimizes the fact that there will be significant effects if the storm gets that close.