ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[DestinHurricane]

i live in port saint lucie just north of stuart fl. What is my reasonable worst case scenario? prepared for a direct hit not sure if thats still possible.

Direct hit still absolutely within the realm of possibilities.

[Sal Collaziano]

I would not take a PBC landfall off the table.

Neither would I...

[underthwx]

This is an excerpt from Forbes I found interesting, here's a quote from Dr. Ventrice...
As Dorian strengthened faster than expected, diabatic outflow developed an upper level anticyclone to the southwest, adding southerly and westerly components to the steering flow. The westerly component in particular slowed the forward motion of the hurricane, and now its track across the Bahamas coincides with a trough that sweeps across the Mid Atlantic and Northeast on Monday. This trough cuts into the ridge to the north of Dorian, with multiple steering currents now trying to tug the hurricane in all different directions. The future track is highly sensitive to each of these currents, with large feedback on every mile the hurricane jogs to the left or right over the next 24 to 48 hours.

[1900hurricane]

Third pass in a row with an eye dropsonde good for 914 mb. This one is 915 mb/9 kt.

[FLpanhandle91]

The tone on this thread needs to change. The storm has only slightly deviated from the forecast line. That is why there is a forecast cone. There are warnings issued and plenty of advance notice from the pros. If you live in the path of this storm you should be prepared. Posters here need to refrain from sensationalism. And for visitors, dont make decisions based on what you read here. Go to http://www.nhc.gov

What tone are you referring to? This is a discussion post with what is essentially an open forum discourse regarding the scenarios that this storm is capable of. I see data interpretation and the vast majority of posts here are rational and well thought out opinions/analysis given the data we have been publicly provided.

[dpep4]

I think people need to come to grips with what the reasonable worst case scenario is with Dorian. It's not a sudden speed up and southwest barrelling to Ft. Lauderdale.

It's something like the HWRF Model where it gradually turns NW and NNW into Melbourne/Cape Canaveral and inland of Florida. That's pretty much the worst case reasonable scenario on the table here and why the NHC has a Hurricane Warning for that part of Florida.

Now, perhaps the worst possible scenario is Palm Beach County landfall. Some ensembles do that but it would have required a real southwest dive and that isn't happening, so it's off the table IMO.

A Palm Beach County landfall is indeed a worse case scenario, and since downtown W. Palm Beach is still inside the NHC's cone, I'd say it is not at all off the table. Especially since the cone can still move significantly this far out. There is already a hurricane warning just 18 miles north of downtown W. Palm Beach. And an ERC could expand the eyewall and hurricane wind fields.

[jasons2k]

i live in port saint lucie just north of stuart fl. What is my reasonable worst case scenario? prepared for a direct hit not sure if thats still possible.

If you are in the cone, prepare as though the worst case can happen.

[CronkPSU]

12:00 AM EDT Mon Sep 2
Location: 26.6°N 78.0°W
Moving: W at 6 mph
Min pressure: 914 mb
Max sustained: 180 mph

[Jonny]

Is the north turn a “for sure” thing or would it be possible for that to never occur?

[Highteeld]

GFS has this thing moving north in the next two hours. We'll see if that holds.

[Blinhart]

Is the north turn a “for sure” thing or would it be possible for that to never occur?

According to all models and all experts yes, but I will go with 90% yes, 10% no

[Sciencerocks]

The tone on this thread needs to change. The storm has only slightly deviated from the forecast line. That is why there is a forecast cone. There are warnings issued and plenty of advance notice from the pros. If you live in the path of this storm you should be prepared. Posters here need to refrain from sensationalism. And for visitors, dont make decisions based on what you read here. Go to http://www.nhc.noaa.gov

This is a discussion board and the purpose of such discussion boards is to discuss such things. What is so wrong with questioning the forecast and discussing possible changes?

[CronkPSU]

Is the north turn a “for sure” thing or would it be possible for that to never occur?

it is FOR SURE...just when is the question

[Nederlander]

The tone on this thread needs to change. The storm has only slightly deviated from the forecast line. That is why there is a forecast cone. There are warnings issued and plenty of advance notice from the pros. If you live in the path of this storm you should be prepared. Posters here need to refrain from sensationalism. And for visitors, dont make decisions based on what you read here. Go to http://www.nhc.noaa.gov

Mods here are top notch and make sure that everything stays on topic and if something said on here is unreasonable or not backed up by data, it gets pointed out rather quickly. I am actually impressed by the thoughtful discussions taking place here. But thanks for your concern.

[norva13x]

Is the north turn a “for sure” thing or would it be possible for that to never occur?

Yes it is for sure, just a matter of when.

[Ian2401]

GFS has this thing moving north in the next two hours. We'll see if that holds.

definitely not doing that right now. well south of both the GFS and the NHC forecasts

[drezee]

Ok...lets do this:
I will do calculations for direction, distance, and speed for the next few recon fixes....

Point 1:
A. Time of Center Fix: 1st day of the month at 23:02:20Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 26.63N 77.55W
Point 4:
A. Time of Center Fix: 2nd day of the month at 3:28:50Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 26.59N 77.96W

Distance =25.5 miles
Azimuth: 263.86° True

25.5 miles/ 4.43 hr = 5.75 mph

[Highteeld]

GFS has this thing moving north in the next two hours. We'll see if that holds.

definitely not doing that right now. well south of both the GFS and the NHC forecasts

likely initiated the ridge too weak.

[Sciencerocks]

GFS has this thing moving north in the next two hours. We'll see if that holds.

Within my opinion this could continue westward for the next 12-24 hours.

[CrazyC83]

I'm not here to second guess meteorologists either. It seems that Dorian has a mind of its own though...defying everyone, including myself.