ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[ozonepete]

1 mph increase over the last advisory. I’m in Pompano and feeling nervous. People, media, etc everyone seems extremely nonchalant.... looks like it’s sliding right down the south side of Grand Bahama.

Keep looking back here. We will tell you if there's a real need for concern. Just be careful that you get your info from the NHC, local emergency officials, and pro mets.
Don't get unnecesarrily panicked by people on any boards or social media who are not professionally trained for this. Good luck and hang in with us.

[craptacular]

I'll admit I never really paid much attention to this before, but decided to take a closer look at the dropsonde from the previous center pass, as I noticed the icon on the tracking map seemed to be far away from the path. Anyway, in less than four minutes, that dropsonde traveled over 9.3 miles SSW (195 degrees) in less than two miles of vertical drop. Geez.

Dropsonde Location: Dropped in eyewall 315° (NW) from the eye center.

Highest altitude where wind was reported:
- Location: 26.72N 78.00W
- Time: 2:19:37Z

Lowest altitude where wind was reported:
- Location: 26.59N 78.04W
- Time: 2:23:18Z

[HDGator]

How long is Grand Bahama?? Looks like it might be 60 miles long and if so going at 5-6 MPH you are talking 10 to 12 hours to get all the way off of it. And the stall is suppose to be 18 hours, which would be half way in between Freeport and PBC.

This, exactly. Someone’s math isn’t adding up - if the storm is moving 6/7 MPH right now (reported by NHC) and the stall doesn’t happen until Monday night... yet the forecast point is north of Freeport and only about 40 miles from present position. Please, someone, explain to me how these numbers fit together...

'Meander when the steering currents die down' is the word I've heard repeated in the past few hours.
I don't think there's a good grasp exactly how this turn will evolve. There's the hope that it will pleasantly follow the NHC forecast track. But it could be more like the Euro model of a steady westward movement then sudden stall and turn to the NNW.
That being said, I'm sitting now 130 miles slightly north of west from the center right now with this beast coming straight at us and trusting in the expertise of the NHC. -- and watching --

[jdjaguar]

1 mph increase over the last advisory. I’m in Pompano and feeling nervous. People, media, etc everyone seems extremely nonchalant.... looks like it’s sliding right down the south side of Grand Bahama.

Keep looking back here. We will tell you if there's a real need for concern. Just be careful that you get your info from the NHC, local emergency officials, and pro mets.
Don't get unnecesarrily panicked by people on any boards or social media who are not professionally trained for this. Goo luck and hang in with us.

I guess this one is a CAT 5?
History books aside.

[lhpfish]

Thank you. Not panicked! We are prepared, it’s just getting too close for comfort. Just been through a few that ended up having impact well beyond what was forecasted.

[MGC]

Been watching Dorian in awe all day....incredible. All we can do now is pray for the people in the Bahamas. Dorian does appear to have a slightly south of due west track the past several hours. Could be the friction of Grand Bahama Island I'm thinking.....MGC

[BrandonJay21]

1 mph increase over the last advisory. I’m in Pompano and feeling nervous. People, media, etc everyone seems extremely nonchalant.... looks like it’s sliding right down the south side of Grand Bahama.

You got this. Prepare and Plan. Have supplies if you’re gonna hunker down. Have a route if you’re going to evacuate. Watch the storm, and listen to the professionals. Do what feels safe for you and your family. Good luck and stay safe.

[ozonepete]

1 mph increase over the last advisory. I’m in Pompano and feeling nervous. People, media, etc everyone seems extremely nonchalant.... looks like it’s sliding right down the south side of Grand Bahama.

Keep looking back here. We will tell you if there's a real need for concern. Just be careful that you get your info from the NHC, local emergency officials, and pro mets.
Don't get unnecesarrily panicked by people on any boards or social media who are not professionally trained for this. Goo luck and hang in with us.

I guess this one is a CAT 5?
History books aside.

What do you mean? I honestly have no idea.

[PandaCitrus]

I think people need to come to grips with what the reasonable worst case scenario is with Dorian. It's not a sudden speed up and southwest barrelling to Ft. Lauderdale.

It's something like the HWRF Model where it gradually turns NW and NNW into Melbourne/Cape Canaveral and inland of Florida. That's pretty much the worst case reasonable scenario on the table here and why the NHC has a Hurricane Warning for that part of Florida.

Now, perhaps the worst possible scenario is Palm Beach County landfall. Some ensembles do that but it would have required a real southwest dive and that isn't happening, so it's off the table IMO.

[FLpanhandle91]

Deepening again. Pressures around 912 this pass.

[Ptarmigan]

Looks like it's going to cross the whole Island...

https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/3c0a74b1f3ad706827abcc48c9afe836e6a32b19b348bb1bcee2b4e47145a8bf.gif

Very scary night for them.

[supercane4867]

About to go sleep...It appears Dorian is not giving up yet. Let’s see what tomorrow morning brings

[caneseddy]

West Palm Beach International and Fort Lauderdale/Hollywood are ceasing operations as of tomoror

[1900hurricane]

 https://twitter.com/1900hurricane/status/1168370732902092800

[fsucory08]

i live in port saint lucie just north of stuart fl. What is my reasonable worst case scenario? prepared for a direct hit not sure if thats still possible.

[DestinHurricane]

I would not take a PBC landfall off the table.

[catskillfire51]

i live in port saint lucie just north of stuart fl. What is my reasonable worst case scenario? prepared for a direct hit not sure if thats still possible.

Prepare for the worst hope for the best, Follow NHC and Local emergency management bulletins!

[toad strangler]

i live in port saint lucie just north of stuart fl. What is my reasonable worst case scenario? prepared for a direct hit not sure if thats still possible.

Expect Dorian to pass just offshore but be prepared for anything

[FLpanhandle91]

Double wind maxima is apparent with recon data now. EWRC underway

[1900hurricane]

 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1168358227693559808



 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1168361740305760258



 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1168367598674706433