ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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FLpanhandle91
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#6821 Postby FLpanhandle91 » Sun Sep 01, 2019 9:59 pm

Any wobbles south of west are quite significant in regards to potential Florida landfall from now on.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#6822 Postby DestinHurricane » Sun Sep 01, 2019 9:59 pm

supercane4867 wrote:Satellite presentation holding steady

https://i.imgur.com/Srrd3aT.gif

https://i.imgur.com/qaXGGd6.gif

Anyone else see a south wobble at the end of those two loops or have I been wobble watching too long?
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#6823 Postby sma10 » Sun Sep 01, 2019 10:00 pm

NDG wrote:
drezee wrote:
drezee wrote:Ok...lets do this:
I will do calculations for direction, distance, and speed for the next few recon fixes....

Point 1:
A. Time of Center Fix: 1st day of the month at 23:02:20Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 26.63N 77.55W
Point 3:
A. Time of Center Fix: 2nd day of the month at 2:16:20Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 26.61N 77.85W

Distance =18.6 miles
Azimuth: 265.80° True

18.6 miles/ 3.22 hr = 5.8 mph


Wow, that's exactly the same results I just got :eek:


Isn't math beautiful?
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#6824 Postby FLpanhandle91 » Sun Sep 01, 2019 10:00 pm

DestinHurricane wrote:
supercane4867 wrote:Satellite presentation holding steady

https://i.imgur.com/Srrd3aT.gif

https://i.imgur.com/qaXGGd6.gif

Anyone else see a south wobble at the end of those two loops or have I been wobble watching too long?


See post above for general movement over the past 3 hours.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#6825 Postby viberama » Sun Sep 01, 2019 10:01 pm

DestinHurricane wrote:
supercane4867 wrote:Satellite presentation holding steady

https://i.imgur.com/Srrd3aT.gif

https://i.imgur.com/qaXGGd6.gif

Anyone else see a south wobble at the end of those two loops or have I been wobble watching too long?


Friction from the Island?
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#6826 Postby caneman » Sun Sep 01, 2019 10:01 pm

Ken711 wrote:11:00 PM EDT Sun Sep 1
Location: 26.6°N 77.9°W
Moving: W at 6 mph
Min pressure: 914 mb
Max sustained: 180 mph


Looks like it picked up speed a tick. If you are in Florida like me, dont trust Dorian. She-he is an absolute bastard. I'm done model watching, I'm watching with my own darn eyes.
Last edited by caneman on Sun Sep 01, 2019 10:08 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#6827 Postby Aric Dunn » Sun Sep 01, 2019 10:01 pm

Vdogg wrote:
NFLnut wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:Dorian is again south of the forecast track.. pretty much has been for the last 2 days. still no noticeable north component that has held. likely will be south of the next forecast point with the immediate wnw motion called out by the models ... when it clearly has not done so.

so the shifting will continue to but subtle but westerly. until it actually turns.. florida east coast is still very much in danger of landfall.

Image


That still looks pretty much on-track to me. But .. that's just me.

The center is almost imperceptibly south of the forecast point but I'm not sure how material that is. One wobble will put it back on track. I'm more interested in the turn, which is not supposed to occur for at least another 24 hours.


actually abotu 10 miles..

point is if you watch the loop.. Dorian is going west ( sometimes south of west) while the forecast track is wnw..

that means its south of track and if the forecast track never updated it would get farther and farther away .. essentially course and actual positions are diverging over and over again each advisory..
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#6828 Postby supercane4867 » Sun Sep 01, 2019 10:03 pm

Hurricane watch extended to FL/GA line
Last edited by supercane4867 on Sun Sep 01, 2019 10:03 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#6829 Postby TheDreamTraveler » Sun Sep 01, 2019 10:03 pm

Hypercane_Kyle wrote:Honestly have never seen a storm maintain this level of intensity this long, Irma included. It's been 185mph for over 8 hours now.


180mph now but still impressive regardless
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#6830 Postby Texashawk » Sun Sep 01, 2019 10:04 pm

CronkPSU wrote:11:00 PM EDT Sun Sep 1
Location: 26.6°N 77.9°W
Moving: W at 6 mph
Min pressure: 914 mb
Max sustained: 180 mph


So... he is actually speeding up? I had his speed calculated at 7 MPH over the last 2 hours, so I guess I’m not crazy :eek:
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#6831 Postby funster » Sun Sep 01, 2019 10:06 pm

Looks like Dorian is also getting bigger.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#6832 Postby NDG » Sun Sep 01, 2019 10:08 pm

Blinhart wrote:I know all the cruise lines have private Cays in the Bahama's, just not sure where they are. Are they up near Freeport or closer to Nassau???


On the map below #1 Disney's Castaway Key is the closest to Dorian's eyewall, I am sure they are or got some damage.
Further south & west is #2 Royal Caribbean's & #3 next to them Norwegian, not sure where Carnival has theirs, have never been to theirs.

Image
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#6833 Postby EquusStorm » Sun Sep 01, 2019 10:09 pm

Never thought I would have to get used to Atlantic storms weakening to 'only' 180mph
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#6834 Postby supercane4867 » Sun Sep 01, 2019 10:09 pm

Looks like it's going to cross the whole Island...

Image
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#6835 Postby underthwx » Sun Sep 01, 2019 10:09 pm


If Dorian tracks the spine of Grand Bahama, is that a SW movement?...the landmass appears to be oriented to the SW
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#6836 Postby nascarfan999 » Sun Sep 01, 2019 10:09 pm

Blinhart wrote:I know all the cruise lines have private Cays in the Bahama's, just not sure where they are. Are they up near Freeport or closer to Nassau???

Info on Disney's private cay...story is all are accounted for but they were not evacuated...

https://www.miamiherald.com/news/weathe ... 27417.html
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#6837 Postby NDG » Sun Sep 01, 2019 10:10 pm

sma10 wrote:
NDG wrote:
drezee wrote:Point 1:
A. Time of Center Fix: 1st day of the month at 23:02:20Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 26.63N 77.55W
Point 3:
A. Time of Center Fix: 2nd day of the month at 2:16:20Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 26.61N 77.85W

Distance =18.6 miles
Azimuth: 265.80° True

18.6 miles/ 3.22 hr = 5.8 mph


Wow, that's exactly the same results I just got :eek:


Isn't math beautiful?


Is called a calculator :wink:
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#6838 Postby flamingosun » Sun Sep 01, 2019 10:11 pm

Blinhart wrote:I know all the cruise lines have private Cays in the Bahama's, just not sure where they are. Are they up near Freeport or closer to Nassau???

Royal Caribbean and Holland America each have one in the berry islands - little l e stirrup cay and greAt stirrup clay respectively. Princess cays (princess cruises) is on eluthera,and disney's castaway clay is near great abaco, I think.

Edit to add Hal and princess are owned by carnival. RCL calls theirs coco cay.
Last edited by flamingosun on Sun Sep 01, 2019 10:17 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#6839 Postby MrJames » Sun Sep 01, 2019 10:12 pm

11PM discussion

This change in the steering pattern should cause
Dorian to slow down even more and perhaps stall, before it turns to
the northwest late Monday or early Tuesday.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#6840 Postby Stangfriik » Sun Sep 01, 2019 10:13 pm

NDG wrote:
Blinhart wrote:I know all the cruise lines have private Cays in the Bahama's, just not sure where they are. Are they up near Freeport or closer to Nassau???


On the map below #1 Disney's Castaway Key is the closest to Dorian's eyewall, I am sure they are or got some damage.
Further south & west is #2 Royal Caribbean's & #3 next to them Norwegian, not sure where Carnival has theirs, have never been to theirs.

https://i.imgur.com/yHyEPzG.gif


And Disney had crewmembers still there as well


https://twitter.com/Sean_Breslin/status ... 51521?s=19
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