ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion
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- FLpanhandle91
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion
Any wobbles south of west are quite significant in regards to potential Florida landfall from now on.
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- DestinHurricane
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion
supercane4867 wrote:Satellite presentation holding steady
https://i.imgur.com/Srrd3aT.gif
https://i.imgur.com/qaXGGd6.gif
Anyone else see a south wobble at the end of those two loops or have I been wobble watching too long?
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Michael 2018
Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion
NDG wrote:drezee wrote:drezee wrote:Ok...lets do this:
I will do calculations for direction, distance, and speed for the next few recon fixes....
Point 1:
A. Time of Center Fix: 1st day of the month at 23:02:20Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 26.63N 77.55W
Point 3:
A. Time of Center Fix: 2nd day of the month at 2:16:20Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 26.61N 77.85W
Distance =18.6 miles
Azimuth: 265.80° True
18.6 miles/ 3.22 hr = 5.8 mph
Wow, that's exactly the same results I just got
Isn't math beautiful?
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- FLpanhandle91
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion
DestinHurricane wrote:supercane4867 wrote:Satellite presentation holding steady
https://i.imgur.com/Srrd3aT.gif
https://i.imgur.com/qaXGGd6.gif
Anyone else see a south wobble at the end of those two loops or have I been wobble watching too long?
See post above for general movement over the past 3 hours.
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- viberama
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion
DestinHurricane wrote:supercane4867 wrote:Satellite presentation holding steady
https://i.imgur.com/Srrd3aT.gif
https://i.imgur.com/qaXGGd6.gif
Anyone else see a south wobble at the end of those two loops or have I been wobble watching too long?
Friction from the Island?
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The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just my opinion and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products
Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion
Ken711 wrote:11:00 PM EDT Sun Sep 1
Location: 26.6°N 77.9°W
Moving: W at 6 mph
Min pressure: 914 mb
Max sustained: 180 mph
Looks like it picked up speed a tick. If you are in Florida like me, dont trust Dorian. She-he is an absolute bastard. I'm done model watching, I'm watching with my own darn eyes.
Last edited by caneman on Sun Sep 01, 2019 10:08 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion
Vdogg wrote:NFLnut wrote:Aric Dunn wrote:Dorian is again south of the forecast track.. pretty much has been for the last 2 days. still no noticeable north component that has held. likely will be south of the next forecast point with the immediate wnw motion called out by the models ... when it clearly has not done so.
so the shifting will continue to but subtle but westerly. until it actually turns.. florida east coast is still very much in danger of landfall.
Image
That still looks pretty much on-track to me. But .. that's just me.
The center is almost imperceptibly south of the forecast point but I'm not sure how material that is. One wobble will put it back on track. I'm more interested in the turn, which is not supposed to occur for at least another 24 hours.
actually abotu 10 miles..
point is if you watch the loop.. Dorian is going west ( sometimes south of west) while the forecast track is wnw..
that means its south of track and if the forecast track never updated it would get farther and farther away .. essentially course and actual positions are diverging over and over again each advisory..
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Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion
Hurricane watch extended to FL/GA line
Last edited by supercane4867 on Sun Sep 01, 2019 10:03 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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- TheDreamTraveler
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion
Hypercane_Kyle wrote:Honestly have never seen a storm maintain this level of intensity this long, Irma included. It's been 185mph for over 8 hours now.
180mph now but still impressive regardless
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- Texashawk
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion
CronkPSU wrote:11:00 PM EDT Sun Sep 1
Location: 26.6°N 77.9°W
Moving: W at 6 mph
Min pressure: 914 mb
Max sustained: 180 mph
So... he is actually speeding up? I had his speed calculated at 7 MPH over the last 2 hours, so I guess I’m not crazy

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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion
Blinhart wrote:I know all the cruise lines have private Cays in the Bahama's, just not sure where they are. Are they up near Freeport or closer to Nassau???
On the map below #1 Disney's Castaway Key is the closest to Dorian's eyewall, I am sure they are or got some damage.
Further south & west is #2 Royal Caribbean's & #3 next to them Norwegian, not sure where Carnival has theirs, have never been to theirs.

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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion
Never thought I would have to get used to Atlantic storms weakening to 'only' 180mph
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Colors of lost purpose on the canvas of irrelevance
Not a meteorologist, in fact more of an idiot than anything. You should probably check with the NHC or a local NWS office for official information.
Not a meteorologist, in fact more of an idiot than anything. You should probably check with the NHC or a local NWS office for official information.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion
Looks like it's going to cross the whole Island...


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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion
supercane4867 wrote:Should be making landfall now
https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/bda08d0bf24bc1e8b9f0ca732c02b275d0c19ca7038298e8551a9c85cd7865da.gif
If Dorian tracks the spine of Grand Bahama, is that a SW movement?...the landmass appears to be oriented to the SW
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion
Blinhart wrote:I know all the cruise lines have private Cays in the Bahama's, just not sure where they are. Are they up near Freeport or closer to Nassau???
Info on Disney's private cay...story is all are accounted for but they were not evacuated...
https://www.miamiherald.com/news/weathe ... 27417.html
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion
sma10 wrote:NDG wrote:drezee wrote:Point 1:
A. Time of Center Fix: 1st day of the month at 23:02:20Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 26.63N 77.55W
Point 3:
A. Time of Center Fix: 2nd day of the month at 2:16:20Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 26.61N 77.85W
Distance =18.6 miles
Azimuth: 265.80° True
18.6 miles/ 3.22 hr = 5.8 mph
Wow, that's exactly the same results I just got
Isn't math beautiful?
Is called a calculator

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- flamingosun
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion
Blinhart wrote:I know all the cruise lines have private Cays in the Bahama's, just not sure where they are. Are they up near Freeport or closer to Nassau???
Royal Caribbean and Holland America each have one in the berry islands - little l e stirrup cay and greAt stirrup clay respectively. Princess cays (princess cruises) is on eluthera,and disney's castaway clay is near great abaco, I think.
Edit to add Hal and princess are owned by carnival. RCL calls theirs coco cay.
Last edited by flamingosun on Sun Sep 01, 2019 10:17 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion
11PM discussion
This change in the steering pattern should cause
Dorian to slow down even more and perhaps stall, before it turns to
the northwest late Monday or early Tuesday.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion
NDG wrote:Blinhart wrote:I know all the cruise lines have private Cays in the Bahama's, just not sure where they are. Are they up near Freeport or closer to Nassau???
On the map below #1 Disney's Castaway Key is the closest to Dorian's eyewall, I am sure they are or got some damage.
Further south & west is #2 Royal Caribbean's & #3 next to them Norwegian, not sure where Carnival has theirs, have never been to theirs.
https://i.imgur.com/yHyEPzG.gif
And Disney had crewmembers still there as well
https://twitter.com/Sean_Breslin/status ... 51521?s=19
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