ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
DestinHurricane
Category 4
Category 4
Posts: 935
Joined: Tue May 01, 2018 8:05 am
Location: New York, NY

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#6801 Postby DestinHurricane » Sun Sep 01, 2019 9:47 pm

Also ahead of forecast track in terms of speed.
3 likes   
Michael 2018

User avatar
Hurrilurker
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 722
Joined: Mon Jun 09, 2003 3:32 pm
Location: San Francisco, CA

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#6802 Postby Hurrilurker » Sun Sep 01, 2019 9:48 pm

So if Dorian is going to stall out over the island, it looks like it could be quite a long time before we get recon from the eye huh? I assume they'll still be sending out flights for synoptic data around the storm?
0 likes   

User avatar
tropicwatch
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3396
Age: 61
Joined: Sat Jun 02, 2007 10:01 am
Location: Panama City Florida
Contact:

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#6803 Postby tropicwatch » Sun Sep 01, 2019 9:50 pm

galaxy401 wrote:
Emmett_Brown wrote:
supercane4867 wrote:Concentric eyewall structure is very obvious now on Bahamas radar

https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/b9694099e6c71010393eab93c2992246230b89224898a78d5ae2a0bdf07f3dc7.png


Sure looks that way. Recon doesn't show a wind maximum associated with the formative outer eye wall yet, however.


Indeed, could be an ERC but I think the radar is just misleading. Yesterday it looked similar but there wasn't a double eyewall.


Looking pretty solid
Image
1 likes   
Tropicwatch


Agnes 72', Eloise 75, Elena 85', Kate 85', Charley 86', Florence 88', Beryl 94', Dean 95', Erin 95', Opal 95', Earl 98', Georges 98', Ivan 2004', Arlene 2005', Dennis 2005', Ida 2009' Debby 2012' Irma 2017' Michael 2018'

User avatar
CFLHurricane
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 346
Joined: Thu Mar 27, 2014 5:56 pm
Location: Floriduh

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#6804 Postby CFLHurricane » Sun Sep 01, 2019 9:50 pm

Hurrilurker wrote:So if Dorian is going to stall out over the island, it looks like it could be quite a long time before we get recon from the eye huh? I assume they'll still be sending out flights for synoptic data around the storm?


One of many data blackouts for Dorian.
0 likes   
I'm not a meteorologist, but I did stay at a motel 8.

User avatar
Hurrilurker
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 722
Joined: Mon Jun 09, 2003 3:32 pm
Location: San Francisco, CA

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#6805 Postby Hurrilurker » Sun Sep 01, 2019 9:51 pm

~30K people in Freeport, yikes. No way they have enough shelter space for all of them I'm guessing and nowhere to go, boats and places have been impossible for a while I'm assuming.
0 likes   

supercane4867
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4966
Joined: Wed Nov 14, 2012 10:43 am

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#6806 Postby supercane4867 » Sun Sep 01, 2019 9:51 pm

Eye dropsonde 916mb at surface with 22kt winds. Pressure holding steady around 914mb
0 likes   

shah83
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 302
Joined: Sun Jul 31, 2016 4:55 pm

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#6807 Postby shah83 » Sun Sep 01, 2019 9:51 pm

I'm vaugely interested in whether Freeport actually gets some of that closeup eyewall action. I'm also wondering how the surge coming over the low north gets to the higher elevation south, and how big the waves will be on top of the surge.
0 likes   

NFLnut
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 541
Joined: Sun Aug 29, 2004 7:37 pm

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#6808 Postby NFLnut » Sun Sep 01, 2019 9:53 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:Dorian is again south of the forecast track.. pretty much has been for the last 2 days. still no noticeable north component that has held. likely will be south of the next forecast point with the immediate wnw motion called out by the models ... when it clearly has not done so.

so the shifting will continue to but subtle but westerly. until it actually turns.. florida east coast is still very much in danger of landfall.

Image


That still looks pretty much on-track to me. But .. that's just me.
1 likes   

User avatar
Dylan
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 338
Age: 31
Joined: Mon May 31, 2010 9:50 am
Location: New Orleans, LA

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#6809 Postby Dylan » Sun Sep 01, 2019 9:53 pm

3 likes   
Georges('98), Allison('01), Isidore('02), Lili('02), Frances('04) Ivan('04), Cindy('05), Katrina('05), Rita('05), Gustav('08), Isaac('12), Matthew('16), Harvey('17), Irma('17), Nate ('17), Ida ('21).

User avatar
drezee
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3664
Joined: Mon Jun 09, 2003 12:49 pm
Location: FL

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#6810 Postby drezee » Sun Sep 01, 2019 9:55 pm

drezee wrote:Ok...lets do this:
I will do calculations for direction, distance, and speed for the next few recon fixes....

Point 1:
A. Time of Center Fix: 1st day of the month at 23:02:20Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 26.63N 77.55W
Point 3:
A. Time of Center Fix: 2nd day of the month at 2:16:20Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 26.61N 77.85W

Distance =18.6 miles
Azimuth: 265.80° True

18.6 miles/ 3.22 hr = 5.8 mph
6 likes   

supercane4867
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4966
Joined: Wed Nov 14, 2012 10:43 am

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#6811 Postby supercane4867 » Sun Sep 01, 2019 9:55 pm

Satellite presentation holding steady

Image

Image
2 likes   

User avatar
NDG
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 15456
Joined: Sun Jul 09, 2006 10:14 pm
Location: Orlando, FL

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#6812 Postby NDG » Sun Sep 01, 2019 9:55 pm

Based on tonight's recon fixes Dorian is moving at a 265 deg heading on an average of around 6 mph, based on my calculations.
4 likes   

Vdogg
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 621
Joined: Wed Aug 31, 2016 9:56 am

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#6813 Postby Vdogg » Sun Sep 01, 2019 9:56 pm

NFLnut wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:Dorian is again south of the forecast track.. pretty much has been for the last 2 days. still no noticeable north component that has held. likely will be south of the next forecast point with the immediate wnw motion called out by the models ... when it clearly has not done so.

so the shifting will continue to but subtle but westerly. until it actually turns.. florida east coast is still very much in danger of landfall.

Image


That still looks pretty much on-track to me. But .. that's just me.

The center is almost imperceptibly south of the forecast point but I'm not sure how material that is. One wobble will put it back on track. I'm more interested in the turn, which is not supposed to occur for at least another 24 hours.
0 likes   

BobHarlem
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2250
Joined: Thu Oct 20, 2005 6:11 pm

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#6814 Postby BobHarlem » Sun Sep 01, 2019 9:56 pm

From that satellite Grand Bahama is going to get surge from two directions, first from the north, and a second wave from the south. Results may be very nasty.
1 likes   

User avatar
Blinhart
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2081
Age: 48
Joined: Thu Sep 08, 2011 3:13 pm
Location: Crowley, La.

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#6815 Postby Blinhart » Sun Sep 01, 2019 9:56 pm

I know all the cruise lines have private Cays in the Bahama's, just not sure where they are. Are they up near Freeport or closer to Nassau???
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
NDG
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 15456
Joined: Sun Jul 09, 2006 10:14 pm
Location: Orlando, FL

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#6816 Postby NDG » Sun Sep 01, 2019 9:57 pm

drezee wrote:
drezee wrote:Ok...lets do this:
I will do calculations for direction, distance, and speed for the next few recon fixes....

Point 1:
A. Time of Center Fix: 1st day of the month at 23:02:20Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 26.63N 77.55W
Point 3:
A. Time of Center Fix: 2nd day of the month at 2:16:20Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 26.61N 77.85W

Distance =18.6 miles
Azimuth: 265.80° True

18.6 miles/ 3.22 hr = 5.8 mph


Wow, that's exactly the same results I just got :eek:
2 likes   

Vdogg
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 621
Joined: Wed Aug 31, 2016 9:56 am

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#6817 Postby Vdogg » Sun Sep 01, 2019 9:58 pm

supercane4867 wrote:911.9mb, 155kt FL


Not weakened yet...

Pressure has actually dropped after initially rising to 916. It's strengthening again...
1 likes   

Ken711
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1074
Joined: Tue Aug 28, 2012 12:48 pm

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#6818 Postby Ken711 » Sun Sep 01, 2019 9:58 pm

11:00 PM EDT Sun Sep 1
Location: 26.6°N 77.9°W
Moving: W at 6 mph
Min pressure: 914 mb
Max sustained: 180 mph
0 likes   

supercane4867
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4966
Joined: Wed Nov 14, 2012 10:43 am

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#6819 Postby supercane4867 » Sun Sep 01, 2019 9:59 pm

Should be making landfall now

Image
5 likes   

User avatar
CronkPSU
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2014
Joined: Sun Aug 07, 2005 10:44 pm
Location: Avalon Park, FL

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#6820 Postby CronkPSU » Sun Sep 01, 2019 9:59 pm

11:00 PM EDT Sun Sep 1
Location: 26.6°N 77.9°W
Moving: W at 6 mph
Min pressure: 914 mb
Max sustained: 180 mph
0 likes   
Just like Jon Snow..."I know nothing" except what I know, and most of what I know is gathered by the fine people of the NHC


Return to “2019”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 7 guests