ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion
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- DestinHurricane
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion
Also ahead of forecast track in terms of speed.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion
So if Dorian is going to stall out over the island, it looks like it could be quite a long time before we get recon from the eye huh? I assume they'll still be sending out flights for synoptic data around the storm?
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion
galaxy401 wrote:Emmett_Brown wrote:supercane4867 wrote:Concentric eyewall structure is very obvious now on Bahamas radar
https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/b9694099e6c71010393eab93c2992246230b89224898a78d5ae2a0bdf07f3dc7.png
Sure looks that way. Recon doesn't show a wind maximum associated with the formative outer eye wall yet, however.
Indeed, could be an ERC but I think the radar is just misleading. Yesterday it looked similar but there wasn't a double eyewall.
Looking pretty solid

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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion
Hurrilurker wrote:So if Dorian is going to stall out over the island, it looks like it could be quite a long time before we get recon from the eye huh? I assume they'll still be sending out flights for synoptic data around the storm?
One of many data blackouts for Dorian.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion
~30K people in Freeport, yikes. No way they have enough shelter space for all of them I'm guessing and nowhere to go, boats and places have been impossible for a while I'm assuming.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion
Eye dropsonde 916mb at surface with 22kt winds. Pressure holding steady around 914mb
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion
I'm vaugely interested in whether Freeport actually gets some of that closeup eyewall action. I'm also wondering how the surge coming over the low north gets to the higher elevation south, and how big the waves will be on top of the surge.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion
Aric Dunn wrote:Dorian is again south of the forecast track.. pretty much has been for the last 2 days. still no noticeable north component that has held. likely will be south of the next forecast point with the immediate wnw motion called out by the models ... when it clearly has not done so.
so the shifting will continue to but subtle but westerly. until it actually turns.. florida east coast is still very much in danger of landfall.
Image
That still looks pretty much on-track to me. But .. that's just me.
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- Dylan
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion
drezee wrote:Ok...lets do this:
I will do calculations for direction, distance, and speed for the next few recon fixes....
Point 1:
A. Time of Center Fix: 1st day of the month at 23:02:20Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 26.63N 77.55W
Point 3:
A. Time of Center Fix: 2nd day of the month at 2:16:20Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 26.61N 77.85W
Distance =18.6 miles
Azimuth: 265.80° True
18.6 miles/ 3.22 hr = 5.8 mph
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion
Based on tonight's recon fixes Dorian is moving at a 265 deg heading on an average of around 6 mph, based on my calculations.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion
NFLnut wrote:Aric Dunn wrote:Dorian is again south of the forecast track.. pretty much has been for the last 2 days. still no noticeable north component that has held. likely will be south of the next forecast point with the immediate wnw motion called out by the models ... when it clearly has not done so.
so the shifting will continue to but subtle but westerly. until it actually turns.. florida east coast is still very much in danger of landfall.
Image
That still looks pretty much on-track to me. But .. that's just me.
The center is almost imperceptibly south of the forecast point but I'm not sure how material that is. One wobble will put it back on track. I'm more interested in the turn, which is not supposed to occur for at least another 24 hours.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion
From that satellite Grand Bahama is going to get surge from two directions, first from the north, and a second wave from the south. Results may be very nasty.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion
I know all the cruise lines have private Cays in the Bahama's, just not sure where they are. Are they up near Freeport or closer to Nassau???
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion
drezee wrote:drezee wrote:Ok...lets do this:
I will do calculations for direction, distance, and speed for the next few recon fixes....
Point 1:
A. Time of Center Fix: 1st day of the month at 23:02:20Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 26.63N 77.55W
Point 3:
A. Time of Center Fix: 2nd day of the month at 2:16:20Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 26.61N 77.85W
Distance =18.6 miles
Azimuth: 265.80° True
18.6 miles/ 3.22 hr = 5.8 mph
Wow, that's exactly the same results I just got

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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion
supercane4867 wrote:911.9mb, 155kt FL
Not weakened yet...
Pressure has actually dropped after initially rising to 916. It's strengthening again...
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion
11:00 PM EDT Sun Sep 1
Location: 26.6°N 77.9°W
Moving: W at 6 mph
Min pressure: 914 mb
Max sustained: 180 mph
Location: 26.6°N 77.9°W
Moving: W at 6 mph
Min pressure: 914 mb
Max sustained: 180 mph
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion
11:00 PM EDT Sun Sep 1
Location: 26.6°N 77.9°W
Moving: W at 6 mph
Min pressure: 914 mb
Max sustained: 180 mph
Location: 26.6°N 77.9°W
Moving: W at 6 mph
Min pressure: 914 mb
Max sustained: 180 mph
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