ATL: KAREN - Models

[sma10]

12Z Euro: Only way this misses FL imo is if it goes south. Weakening like on the 0Z due to shear.

How is the shear looking this run? Last run you were surprised she survived so much shear. This time the environment at least gets her to 1004mb

[toad strangler]

This is barely a TS and probably a depression verbatim at 144 hrs on 12z Euro

[boca]

If this hits Florida I’ll eat crow.

I arranged for a big black crow to be delivered to the meating place in boca
277 East Palmetto Park Road
Boca Raton, Florida

Tabasco sauce optional

You want it before or after your shutters go up...


Very odd to see Lorenzo so close at 120h but there he is, karen is moving along at a decent clip, major disruption from PR is not a given.

It’s funny you said that because I’m 10 minutes away from that address.

[Patrick99]

If this hits Florida I’ll eat crow.

I arranged for a big black crow to be delivered to the meating place in boca
277 East Palmetto Park Road
Boca Raton, Florida

Tabasco sauce optional

You want it before or after your shutters go up...


Very odd to see Lorenzo so close at 120h but there he is, karen is moving along at a decent clip, major disruption from PR is not a given.

Aside from being a total amateur weather nerd, part of the reason why I like this board is that it helps me get a jump on the general population when it comes to hurricane preparedness. They don't really know anything about models and think the Euro model is a either a form of currency, or a leggy supermodel from Denmark. Just as I did with Dorian, may grab some water and a couple fills of gasoline. Not going to hurt.

[chris_fit]

[jlauderdal]

If this hits Florida I’ll eat crow.

I arranged for a big black crow to be delivered to the meating place in boca
277 East Palmetto Park Road
Boca Raton, Florida

Tabasco sauce optional

You want it before or after your shutters go up...


Very odd to see Lorenzo so close at 120h but there he is, karen is moving along at a decent clip, major disruption from PR is not a given.

It’s funny you said that because I’m 10 minutes away from that address.

SFLCane gets half the crow to for saying OTS or dissipation most of the time.. . After the Dorian scare, this system looks mild on its approach.

[LarryWx]

12Z Euro: Only way this misses FL imo is if it goes south. Weakening like on the 0Z due to shear.

How is the shear looking this run? Last run you were surprised she survived so much shear. This time the environment at least gets her to 1004mb

12Z Euro Shear not as strong as 0Z. As of hour 168: Slowing down markedly last few frames. It didn't slow like this on the 0Z. Now due south of the 0Z position after earlier being SW of the 0Z.

[toad strangler]

Deepening slightly at 168 on 12z Euro heading right for S FL

[SFLcane]

Some strengthening hopefully not a trend.

[chris_fit]

Looks like Strengthening at 168hrs?

[LarryWx]

Is she stalling hours 168+??

[chris_fit]

Is she stalling hours 168+??

I dont think we can handle any more stalling storms LOL especially kinda close

[LarryWx]

12Z Euro stalled 162-180! That means she may turn. Will I have to eat crow too?

[WeatherEmperor]

sorry I cannot post images guys...but if you look at the 500MB heights it looks like the ridge is starting to weaken big time at 168hrs....which may be why its starting to show Karen slow down.

[chris_fit]

sorry I cannot post images guys...but if you look at the 500MB heights it looks like the ridge is starting to weaken big time at 168hrs....which may be why its starting to show Karen slow down.

I see that, but there is really no trough - just random break down of Ridge?

[Jr0d]

12Z Euro: Only way this misses FL imo is if it goes south. Weakening like on the 0Z due to shear.

I think this is the 3rd straight day the EURO is taking this toward S. Florida. I'm already thinking about evacuation plan from Key West if there is a chance this will be a major hurricane.

I like the EURO because it has been consistent, I don't like it because it brings Karen way to close for comfort.

It will be interesting to see of the other models start catching up to the EURO or if it needs to make a major adjustment.

Needless to say, I feel like the threat continues to increase for a Florida strike.

[chris_fit]

[chris_fit]

12Z Euro: Only way this misses FL imo is if it goes south. Weakening like on the 0Z due to shear.

I think this is the 3rd straight day the EURO is taking this toward S. Florida. I'm already thinking about evacuation plan from Key West if there is a chance this will be a major hurricane.

I like the EURO because it has been consistent, I don't like it because it brings Karen way to close for comfort.

It will be interesting to see of the other models start catching up to the EURO or if it needs to make a major adjustment.

Needless to say, I feel like the threat continues to increase for a Florida strike.

Well - might want to table that - this new EURO run might be a game changer, again...

[sma10]

8 days out wow, lots more model runs.

Still a big trough in the west maybe the ridge is positioned slightly different this run.

[toad strangler]

sorry I cannot post images guys...but if you look at the 500MB heights it looks like the ridge is starting to weaken big time at 168hrs....which may be why its starting to show Karen slow down.

I see that, but there is really no trough - just random break down of Ridge?

I don't see an obvious weakness but the Euro is def turning the system to the NW and that usually means a re-curve.