ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[supercane4867]

Georgia will also begin evacuations tomorrow AM:

https://twitter.com/AaronDiamantWSB/status/1168328489851916288

I would think they have gotten some priority advice from the NHC before making such decision, which means we may see a westward shift in track at 11PM advisory

[O Town]

One take away from Levi's video:

The weaker the storm becomes due to upwelling or eyewall replacement, the higher the chance that it gets steering more from the lower levels, which is from SE-NW as shown in the HWRF runs

Yep, that was our take away as well. Look forward to his calm very informative updates.

[drezee]

Ok...lets do this:
I will do calculations for direction, distance, and speed for the next few recon fixes....
Point 1:
A. Time of Center Fix: 1st day of the month at 23:02:20Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 26.63N 77.55W
Point 2:
A. Time of Center Fix: 2nd day of the month at 0:44:10Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 26.61N 77.71W

Distance = 16.058 km (9.9 miles)
via the Great Circle method of computation
Azimuth, Point 1 to Point 2: 262.08° True

9.9 miles/ 1.7 hr = 5.87 mph

[FLpanhandle91]

Radar and microwave imagery show evidence of a secondary eyewall and subsequent EWRC, but no evidence of a double maxima quite yet. I expect Dorian will gradually weaken as this EWRC continues with an eventual expansion in wind field as it approaches the west end of Grand Bahama. Unfortunately, this EWRC happening now would give Dorian plenty of time to strengthen again before any hypothetical landfall ok the east coast of Florida.

[GCANE]

[KBBOCA]

This storm is ridiculous! I wish I got back on this site sooner had it not been for a recent emergency. Can anyone provide recent updates beyond NHC atm? In regards to at least his anticipated strength? I see he is looking to ride the EC of FL as a major, but loose a tid bit of steam in the process before arrival?

Hey Meriland. Sorry you've been dealing with an emergency. Not so sure who besides NHC can give a clear summary. Basically the big question of the moment is when/where a North turn will begin. That will affect how close it gets to the FL coast. Also, if it keeps going West past 80 degrees, that makes it a lot less likely to miss other points on the SE coast. There are evacuations now happening in central / north FL also parts of GA, SC....

Levi Cowen at tropical tidbits is usually a great source of info presented in a very clear / non-hype way. Hope you stay safe.

[p1nheadlarry]

One take away from Levi's video:

The weaker the storm becomes due to upwelling or eyewall replacement, the higher the chance that it gets steering more from the lower levels, which is from SE-NW as shown in the HWRF runs

Weaker storms are steered more by lower-level winds anyways. A storm with 910 hPa at the surface isn't going to be steered by winds at 950.

If you take anything away from it, it should be that the models might not be depicting the storms intensity correctly at that time frame because of the resolution, air-sea coupling, etc. Also the depth of the storm depends more than just how intense it is (although it's primarily that, why stronger storms have cooler brightness temps).

[GCANE]

Dewpoint actually dropped in the eye at 700mb
From 11C to 6C.
Usually onset of an EWRC is indicated by increasing dew point.

[NDG]

Just about every wooden roof home in the Abaco Island has lost at least part of its roof by looking at the videos coming

[itglobalsecure]

I could not stand looking at a category 5 storm barreling towards me, even though I know it is to take a turn to the north. My husband and I live in West Boca Raton in Palm Beach county. At 6 p.m. we took the car and drove to a hotel just west of the Miami airport. (He works at MIA and normally uses Tri-Rail.) It was nice to only need such a short drive to get to an area with no hurricane watches or warnings.

[BobHarlem]

Just about every wooden roof home in the Abaco Island has lost at least part of its roof by looking at the videos coming

Crazy thing is that's just from before the back eyewall hit...

[NFLnut]

Sorry I said anything. I should have known better. Be safe!

No that s OK. I hardly use my I-Phone for any long duration of time to post here on the forums, but I can see how typos can be annoying. I do not like them either. Just temporary. I will be on the home computer shortly when I get there.

At least autocorrect didn't do anything crazy or profane.

Actually, it has. Almost. The "new" autocorrect when I upgraded from Note 3 to 8. 3 was great. 8 changes from sensical to nonsensical and substituted the F-word for something just before I sent a friendly text to an employee (I don't talk like that).

/Sidebar discussion now over (sorry for the indulgence)

[STRiZZY]

One take away from Levi's video:

The weaker the storm becomes due to upwelling or eyewall replacement, the higher the chance that it gets steering more from the lower levels, which is from SE-NW as shown in the HWRF runs

His explanation of that was fantastic.

Just goes to show how COMPLICATED these situations are. It's a miracle we can track them at all.

So much to learn, the thought never crossed my mind that the actual height of the storm could change the path due to steering at different levels.

Fascinating stuff Levi!!

[orion]

It's just amazing at how many times I've seen very well trusted meteorologists call for a ERC that never happens for days and days now. It's actually kinda hilarious lol A lot of them are really trustworthy in their analysis too.

Yes, they are not at all understood yet and one of the areas where more research is needed. We just don't know enough about them to forecast them... there are signs that indicate it could be happening now, such as the secondary ring you can see on radar. But even if it wraps all the way around, there is no guarantee that the winds will increase and it will become the primary eye wall as the inner one degrades. Unfortunately, we just don't know when an ERC will happen... until it is already happening.

[SunnyThoughts]

I could not stand looking at a category 5 storm barreling towards me, even though I know it is to take a turn to the north. My husband and I live in West Boca Raton in Palm Beach county. At 6 p.m. we took the car and drove to a hotel just west of the Miami airport. (He works at MIA and normally uses Tri-Rail.) It was nice to only need such a short drive to get to an area with no hurricane watches or warnings.

I would have done the same thing. Good luck and be safe!

[SouthFloridawx]

I'm thinking this is the next landfall, shortly.

[Texashawk]

This is the track CNN posted 1.5 hours ago. As you can see, it appears it will be just a *little* off of reality

[LarryWx]

One take away from Levi's video:

the chance that it gets steering more from the lower levels, which is from SE-NW as shown in the HWRF runs

Very interesting from Levi. He hinks that the reason the HWRF keeps landfalling him near Canaveral is that it unlike the Euro and GFS is more coupled with the ocean. Because of this, the HWRF induces more cooling of the ocean due to upwelling from Dorian. That cooler water leads to more weakening than would otherwise be assumed. More weakening then makes the storm more shallow and thus brings the mean steering layer down just far enough to make the steering SE to NW rather than SSE to NNW thus pushing inland. So, ironically, a more quickly weakening storm from upwelling may actually be bad rather than good news for central and NE FL because more quickly weakening doesn’t mean it wouldn’t still be a very strong storm (probably still cat 3+) since it is so insanely strong now.

[johngaltfla]

I'm thinking this is the next landfall, shortly.
https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/485132024949112855/617898544833101826/unknown.png

Good call...

[LarryWx]

One take away from Levi's video:

The weaker the storm becomes due to upwelling or eyewall replacement, the higher the chance that it gets steering more from the lower levels, which is from SE-NW as shown in the HWRF runs

His explanation of that was fantastic.

Just goes to show how COMPLICATED these situations are. It's a miracle we can track them at all.

So much to learn, the thought never crossed my mind that the actual height of the storm could change the path due to steering at different levels.

Fascinating stuff Levi!!

That may be what caused a storm in October of 1947 to make a 135 degree left turn and plow into GA instead of continuing NE ots. Instead of Mother Nature weakening it, it was the first storm undergoing experimental cloud seeding. After the seeding, which was done on this one because it was thought to be going harmlessly OTS, it weakened and then turned sharply left. The project was suspended after this. We don’t know for sure if that was the reason for the sharp turn, but the seeding is highly suspect.