ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[edu2703]

I think this is the only webcam from Freeport that still works.

https://www.cruisin.me/cruise-port-webcams/caribbean/freeport-bahamas2/

[Visioen]

Precisely this. I understand many people here are nervous and have a compulsion to “wobble watch” (few of us here are immune to such compulsion), and folks are steadfastly conveying their short-term motion estimates. However, please realize the NHC’s official forecast track calls for a continuing W to WNW motion until tomorrow evening. Further, recall many global ensembles (Euro included) that depict a fairly sharp turn and still keep Dorian offshore do not do so until after Dorian reaches the longitude of the far western extent of Grand Bahama Island. Thus, there is not expected to exist much correlation between the current due west motion (even if you wish to refer to it as slightly south of due west) and the eventual 72 hour outcome. Rather, it would be far more likely to carry a greater degree of correlation to an alternative outcome in the event either of these aforementioned location and/or timing criterion are breached.

Translation: if it's not where it's supposed to be when leaving Grand Bahama, pay attention. In the meantime, don't loose sleep over wobbles.

[ScottNAtlanta]

My sister just told me they are starting evacuations in Charleston tomorrow. At 12 noon tomorrow all the bridges will flip to one way out of town and the interstate will be one way to Columbia

[ronjon]

Levi Cowan has a new update on the tidbits site:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Radar from the Bahamas, without an underlying map, from 2:00pm Saturday, August 31st, through 8:45pm EDT Sunday, September 1st of Hurricane Dorian. I saved the images, but couldn't add a map below it.

[abajan]

Very subtle south of west motion for the last couple hours.

https://imgshare.io/images/2019/09/01/6.gif

Yes, I see it. But I'm wondering if the contraction of the eye isn't making the motion seem more south of west than it actually is. I overlaid the bottom boundary of the eye in that GIF with another line (I opened a Notepad file over the browser) and noticed that southern section of the eye didn't make as much as a southern dip as the northern section. (The contraction is also quite subtle.)

[p1nheadlarry]

The CDO looks to be expanding outward on the IR. Anyone else see that?

Yes it is expanding and to the west also. Dorian looks like he wants to grow in size.

if dorian grows in size and actually fights off being picked up to turn and really does slightly dip southwest into the warm deep water, itd be like thanos getting ahold
of the final stone.

Larger size actually grows the "Beta" term just like it would for a stronger storm.

[WeatherEmperor]

My sister just told me they are starting evacuations in Charleston tomorrow. At 12 noon tomorrow all the bridges will flip to one way out of town and the interstate will be one way to Columbia

Good news. Better to be safe than sorry


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[TheDreamTraveler]

It's just amazing at how many times I've seen very well trusted meteorologists call for a ERC that never happens for days and days now. It's actually kinda hilarious lol A lot of them are really trustworthy in their analysis too.

[CalmBeforeStorm]

Fascinating video by Levi Cowan tonight. He discusses how more weakening by a slow Dorian could actually favor the HWRF track in that this could lower the storm's vortex heights and make it be steered more by the lower level flow. I would imagine an ERC could also have the same result.

[supercane4867]

Trying to form a secondary eyewall on microwave, but not that visible yet

[Aric Dunn]

Radar from the Bahamas, without an underlying map, from 2:00pm Saturday, August 31st, through 8:45pm EDT Sunday, September 1st of Hurricane Dorian. I saved the images, but couldn't add a map below it.

https://i.imgur.com/N4lW0l2.gif

you can see the south of west motion at the end of the loop pretty clearly.

[Kazmit]

It's just amazing at how many times I've seen very well trusted meteorologists call for a ERC that never happens for days and days now. It's actually kinda hilarious lol A lot of them are really trustworthy in their analysis too.

They are impossible to predict until signs of them starting begin to show. More often than not, they occur with strong systems like Dorian but for reasons I don't know, it hasn't happened yet.

[plasticup]

So what causes some hurricanes to have eye wall replacement cycles and others not.
Do they just reach a level of strength that prevents it, or is it more of a structural thing?

Oh, man, that’s a million dollar question. Literally, worth millions to the person who could answer it. EWRCs are highly unpredictable but if someone figures out how it would be a huge leap forward.

[GCANE]

Moat appears to be getting better defined on radar

[supercane4867]

One take away from Levi's video:

The weaker the storm becomes due to upwelling or eyewall replacement, the higher the chance that it gets steering more from the lower levels, which is from SE-NW as shown in the HWRF runs

[hohnywx]

Georgia will also begin evacuations tomorrow AM:

 https://twitter.com/AaronDiamantWSB/status/1168328489851916288

[shannstone]

Sad news from Abaco
http://bahamaspress.com/2019/09/01/fear ... der-water/

So sad! This may have been posted before but there was a news report with social media links to a woman requesting prayers for her family. Her children were with their uncle and cousins on a mission trip via sailboat when the boat had some sort of problems. They have been stranded on Man o War(?) I have not heard any other news. Im praying for all in the Bahamas. It is hard to imagine what the people are/will be going through now and forward.

[MetsIslesNoles]

One take away from Levi's video:

The weaker the storm becomes due to upwelling or eyewall replacement, the higher the chance that it gets steering more from the lower levels, which is from SE-NW as shown in the HWRF runs

His explanation of that was fantastic.

[hurricaneCW]

It's just amazing at how many times I've seen very well trusted meteorologists call for a ERC that never happens for days and days now. It's actually kinda hilarious lol A lot of them are really trustworthy in their analysis too.

They are impossible to predict until signs of them starting begin to show. More often than not, they occur with strong systems like Dorian but for reasons I don't know, it hasn't happened yet.

EWRC can occur pretty quickly too especially if the storm is small and it's possible that when you saw "the moat" open up and fill in that it was a form of rapid succession EWRCs.