ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[tronbunny]

Dropsonde North and East of Hurricane Dorian:
Product: Air Force Temp Drop (Dropsonde) Message (UZNT13 KNHC)
Transmitted: 2nd day of the month at 0:28Z
Agency: United States Air Force
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF97-5304
Storm Number: 05
Storm Name: Dorian (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 30
Observation Number: 11

Part A...

Date: Near the closest hour of 0Z on the 2nd day of the month
Highest Mandatory Level For Which Wind Was Reported: 700mb
Coordinates: 27.9N 76.3W
Location: 208 statute miles (334 km) to the NNE (18°) from Nassau, Bahamas.
Marsden Square: 080

Surface and Standard Isobaric Surfaces
Level Geo. Height Air Temp. Dew Point Wind Direction Wind Speed
1009mb (29.80 inHg) Surface (Sea Level) 26.8°C (80.2°F) 23.2°C (74°F) 115° (from the ESE) 34 knots (39 mph)
1000mb 78m (256 ft) 26.0°C (78.8°F) 22.3°C (72°F) 115° (from the ESE) 37 knots (43 mph)
925mb 762m (2,500 ft) 22.0°C (71.6°F) 17.3°C (63°F) 130° (from the SE) 46 knots (53 mph)
850mb 1,494m (4,902 ft) 17.8°C (64.0°F) 14.0°C (57°F) 130° (from the SE) 43 knots (49 mph)
700mb 3,136m (10,289 ft) Unavailable Unavailable 140° (from the SE) 44 knots (51 mph)

Information About Radiosonde:
- Launch Time: 0:12Z
- About Sonde: A descending radiosonde tracked automatically by satellite navigation with no solar or infrared correction.

[GCANE]

IR clearly showing a WSW movement

[supercane4867]

Extrap 911mb. Not weakening in a hurry for sure

[SunnyThoughts]

Sad news from Abaco
http://bahamaspress.com/2019/09/01/fear ... der-water/

Isn’t Marsh Harbor where Jim Edds was?

Yes

[GCANE]

Lowest extrap surface pressure 911.5mb at 26.60N 77.73W
Last VDM fixed center at 26.63N 77.55W

[Sal Collaziano]

Just noting that a moment ago I experienced heavy rain and wind for a few minutes in Wellington, Florida. So I imagine little squalls are arriving...

[Blown Away]

Dorian at E end of Grand Bahama, will he go through or wobble N or S... It appears there is S component to the W movement and may go under Grand Bahama... Be nice if core wobbled a few miles offshore... Majority of the island E of Freeport is not heavily populated..

[toto]

What's the longest an Atlantic Storm stayed at Cat 5?

Officially, the 1932 Cuba Hurricane. But that was 1932... I think otherwise it is Irma. Maybe followed by Ivan?

[Crazy] Ivan went around the island of Jamaica, was accompanied by two earthquakes in its path, became a CAT 5 three times and hit the US mainland twice !

.

[AdamFirst]

The CDO looks to be expanding outward on the IR. Anyone else see that?

[Nasdaq]

Sad news from Abaco
http://bahamaspress.com/2019/09/01/fear ... der-water/

Isn’t Marsh Harbor where Jim Edds was?

Yes

Josh Morgerman - central abaco primary school  https://twitter.com/iCyclone/status/1168095182279139328




Jim Edds - Hope Town Inn and Marina  https://twitter.com/ExtremeStorms/status/1168123731530670080




Jim was trying to get across the bay, but stated he was unable to do so.

[Weatherboy1]

Very subtle south of west motion for the last couple hours.

https://imgshare.io/images/2019/09/01/6.gif

I don’t see it... it’s most likely trochoidal.

https://i1.wp.com/envirobites.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/trochoid.gif

every wobble regardless of how far plausibly brings it closer to florida down the line..

This is a very important point. Wobbles hundreds of miles out to sea don't matter. They do now given the very close call setting up for those of us in Palm Beach County, FL. If "The Turn" starts from further south, it could have implications for a potential landfall down the road

[tronbunny]

And on a lighter note from Florida's west coast...
[Tweet]https://twitter.com/Talkmaster/status/1167616316108419073?s=20[/Tweet]
https://twitter.com/Talkmaster/status/1167616316108419073?s=20

[gatorcane]

The CDO looks to be expanding outward on the IR. Anyone else see that?

Yes it is expanding and to the west also. Dorian looks like he wants to grow in size.

[AdamFirst]

Jim Edds wasn't in Marsh Harbour, he was in Hope Town, on Elbow Cay. He had first contact. We haven't heard from him since this morning.

Josh Morgerman is in Marsh Harbour.

[StormPyrate]

So what causes some hurricanes to have eye wall replacement cycles and others not.
Do they just reach a level of strength that prevents it, or is it more of a structural thing?

[GCANE]

Rain rates still in the 70's mm/hr.
Supportive of furhter strengthening.

[Socalhurcnegirl227]

The CDO looks to be expanding outward on the IR. Anyone else see that?

Yes it is expanding and to the west also. Dorian looks like he wants to grow in size.

if dorian grows in size and actually fights off being picked up to turn and really does slightly dip southwest into the warm deep water, itd be like thanos getting ahold
of the final stone.

[TheBigO]

Can't tell of the apparent S/SW movement on radar loop is legit or just a normal eye wobble...

[GeneratorPower]

Can't tell of the apparent S/SW movement on radar loop is legit or just a normal eye wobble...

The slow forward speed is making wobble watching harder.

[dukeblue219]

So what causes some hurricanes to have eye wall replacement cycles and others not.
Do they just reach a level of strength that prevents it, or is it more of a structural thing?

EWRCs are one of the least understood concepts in hurricane forecasting. Figure it out and you've got a good PhD thesis.