ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[GeneratorPower]

Well 57 I hear you. But right now, I am over here not only working overtime monitoring the storm, but I am trying to finish preps at homr and even.possibly prepare to likely leave yo get away from the storm by yommorrow night. . I am.not discounting any model at this junncture especially with a Category 5 monster bearing down too close for comfort here in my back yard off Northeast Flotida coast.

Not trying to be a grammar notzee but your posts are getting annoying with all the typos. Just sayin.

I am using my I-Phone on the go. My tempered glass has lead to stickiness on my phone keyboard. I try to edit as often as possible. I am not at home.on my computer with so many preps I am doing right now. I apologize to you allwith so.e of the typos. I will be home on my computer shortly to give my phonr a rest.

Sorry I said anything. I should have known better. Be safe!

[nascarfan999]

Intense eyewall lightning continues

https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/efec62e5340beac91bbb05d5d3d2663f54a71866d6e5b9bfc64504f030df40fb.gif

Amazing shot from two hours ago

https://i.imgur.com/n1DRD0c.jpg

It looks like Dorian eye will run the entire length of the Grand Bahama Island, ouch!!!

I'm not an expert, but I think that would be the best outcome at this point as opposed to it running just north or south of the island and keeping it in the eyewall without the eye (especially compared to if it were to dip just south of the island and put the island in the right front quadrant of the eyewall).

[1900hurricane]

00Z best track update down to 155 kt/915 mb. Based on what I've seen so far, that looks good to me. NE eyewall pass is coming up shortly.

AL, 05, 2019090200, , BEST, 0, 266N, 777W, 155, 915, HU, 34, NEQ, 120, 110, 70, 100, 1011, 150, 10, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, DORIAN, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 013,
AL, 05, 2019090200, , BEST, 0, 266N, 777W, 155, 915, HU, 50, NEQ, 80, 50, 50, 60, 1011, 150, 10, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, DORIAN, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 013,
AL, 05, 2019090200, , BEST, 0, 266N, 777W, 155, 915, HU, 64, NEQ, 40, 30, 25, 30, 1011, 150, 10, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, DORIAN, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 013,

Despite going down 5 kt, storm size has edged up just a little. IKE for 00Z has increased to 34.1 TJ, which is just about as much as Michael '18 at landfall.

[mpic]

Not trying to be a grammar notzee but your posts are getting annoying with all the typos. Just sayin.

"Notzee" or "Nazi? Just sayin.

Hehe. Well, a lot of forums ban that n word so, sometimes you gotta improvise.

A lot to be said about private messages. I understand a lot of people are stressing out, but come on.

[Hurricane_Apu]

Speed is more important than direction, which is going to be a few degrees either side of due west for a while. The turn to the north is set in stone now, but the question is where the storm is when it happens.
The projected track by the major models requires it to take 48 hours to travel the length of Grand Bahama. If it's faster than that, things change.

[stormhunter7]

definitely either eye contracting or a subtle wsw motion in last few hours.

[TheDreamTraveler]

I don’t see it... it’s most likely trochoidal.

https://i1.wp.com/envirobites.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/trochoid.gif

every wobble regardless of how far plausibly brings it closer to florida down the line..

Not sure that’s the case. I think we need to see real SW movement for it to be meaningful.

In most cases this wouldn't be meaningful at all. This case is very different from anything we typically deal with.

[AutoPenalti]

Very subtle south of west motion for the last couple hours.

https://imgshare.io/images/2019/09/01/6.gif

I don’t see it... it’s most likely trochoidal.

https://i1.wp.com/envirobites.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/trochoid.gif

every wobble regardless of how far plausibly brings it closer to florida down the line..

That’s very true.

[msbee]

Sad news from Abaco
http://bahamaspress.com/2019/09/01/fear ... der-water/

[StPeteMike]

May be a loose question to ask, but want to see what the Pros on here have to say over someone like me who has no educational teaching to understand atmospheric conditions. And this is a question more of a personal answer than imputing models or the current forecast track.

Will the trough be south and strong enough to breakdown the ridge?

[FLpanhandle91]

151 kt unflagged.

[meriland29]

This storm is ridiculous! I wish I got back on this site sooner had it not been for a recent emergency. Can anyone provide recent updates beyond NHC atm? In regards to at least his anticipated strength? I see he is looking to ride the EC of FL as a major, but loose a tid bit of steam in the process before arrival?

[tronbunny]

Sad news from Abaco
http://bahamaspress.com/2019/09/01/fear ... der-water/

This is disturbing. Clearly a retired name, now.

[Texashawk]

Is anyone else seeing a sudden lag in satellite imagery updates? Both the TT links and the NHC links are lagging updates for me.

[edu2703]

151 kt unflagged.

This measurement is from the NW quadrant. Probably the weakest.

EDIT: NE quadrant

[FLpanhandle91]

151 kt unflagged.

This measurement is from the NW quadrant. Probably the weakest.

From the NE quad. Latest pass.

[toad strangler]

Have seen multiple far flung Dorian showers already. Typical true tropical downpours. Fast moving and heavy tiny droplets

[edu2703]

151 kt unflagged.

This measurement is from the NW quadrant. Probably the weakest.

From the NE quad. Latest pass.

You're right. NE Quadrant.
My mistake

[O Town]

Sad news from Abaco
http://bahamaspress.com/2019/09/01/fear ... der-water/

Isn’t Marsh Harbor where Jim Edds was?

[Secret_Meteorologist]

I’ll admit it. I’m skeptical.

Personally,’when I look at “trofs” and “ridges” I don’t see a big dip that looks like it’s going to pick this thing up.

I get it. It’s not that I don’t trust NHC. I do. But hey they are human, and thus have to be spectacularly wrong some time, right? This is also a special case where they wouldn’t even have to be THAT wrong in order to preside over a catastrophe. Chugging W into WPB would be bad enough....heaven forbid a WSW drift into Broward. Neither would really be spectacularly wrong with regard to their forecast, but the general public would view it as such. There’d be hell to pay.

For me, I just have a hard time reconciling the models with 2 graphics in particular:

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... anim=html5

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/w ... 22.05,2357

I look at those and think why wouldn’t this just keep going west at least in the near term, if not WSW?

I mean the official track shows essentially a W to slightly WNW movement in the short-term, it is not until during the day tomorrow that a solid N of W component to the motion should become evident. Additionally the system will continue to decelerate as well, and I think the very slow motion is throwing some people off in thinking the system is supposed to be turning NW soon. Also the NHC has issued hurricane warnings for a good portion of the Central Florida coast so people should certainly be prepared even if the "Cone centerline" depicts the system is offshore. The NHC makes it explicit the cone centerline and even the cone itself do not capture the extent of a storm's impacts, really you should be looking at the Hurricane Threats and Impacts (HTI) products that your local office issues in coordination with the NHC for that.

Precisely this. I understand many people here are nervous and have a compulsion to “wobble watch” (few of us here are immune to such compulsion), and folks are steadfastly conveying their short-term motion estimates. However, please realize the NHC’s official forecast track calls for a continuing W to WNW motion until tomorrow evening. Further, recall many global ensembles (Euro included) that depict a fairly sharp turn and still keep Dorian offshore do not do so until after Dorian reaches the longitude of the far western extent of Grand Bahama Island. Thus, there is not expected to exist much correlation between the current due west motion (even if you wish to refer to it as slightly south of due west) and the eventual 72 hour outcome. Rather, it would be far more likely to carry a greater degree of correlation to an alternative outcome in the event either of these aforementioned location and/or timing criterion are breached.