ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#6661 Postby AutoPenalti » Sun Sep 01, 2019 7:29 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:Very subtle south of west motion for the last couple hours.

https://imgshare.io/images/2019/09/01/6.gif

I don’t see it... it’s most likely trochoidal.

Image
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#6662 Postby drezee » Sun Sep 01, 2019 7:29 pm

Ok...lets do this:
I will do calculations for direction, distance, and speed for the next few recon fixes....
Point 1:
A. Time of Center Fix: 1st day of the month at 23:02:20Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 26.63N 77.55W
Last edited by drezee on Sun Sep 01, 2019 7:31 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#6663 Postby hipshot » Sun Sep 01, 2019 7:29 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:Very subtle south of west motion for the last couple hours.

https://imgshare.io/images/2019/09/01/6.gif


Me thinks you've been wobble watching too long...LOL.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#6664 Postby GCANE » Sun Sep 01, 2019 7:30 pm

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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#6665 Postby hurricaneCW » Sun Sep 01, 2019 7:30 pm

Frictional effects from land could cause him to go just south of Grand Bahama island. Would be devastating for Freeport and is more likely to lead to US impacts beyond.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#6666 Postby gatorcane » Sun Sep 01, 2019 7:32 pm

SEASON_CANCELED wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:Very subtle south of west motion for the last couple hours.

https://imgshare.io/images/2019/09/01/6.gif



Can clearly see a wsw motion on miami radar


Yep it’s south of west on radar and satellite
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#6667 Postby Hurricane Jed » Sun Sep 01, 2019 7:32 pm

edu2703 wrote:
Bam Bam wrote:What's the longest an Atlantic Storm stayed at Cat 5?


Irma? 3 days as Cat 5


1932 Cuba Hurricane. 78 hours
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#6668 Postby Sanibel » Sun Sep 01, 2019 7:32 pm

We had those showers kicked up by the circulation around Dorian...Had light gusts from the north and then went calm again...
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#6669 Postby johngaltfla » Sun Sep 01, 2019 7:32 pm

hurricaneCW wrote:Frictional effects from land could cause him to go just south of Grand Bahama island. Would be devastating for Freeport and is more likely to lead to US impacts beyond.


If it stays on that path, it becomes an almost frightening copycat of an older storm.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#6670 Postby Blinhart » Sun Sep 01, 2019 7:34 pm

Hurricane Jed wrote:
edu2703 wrote:
Bam Bam wrote:What's the longest an Atlantic Storm stayed at Cat 5?


Irma? 3 days as Cat 5


1932 Cuba Hurricane. 78 hours


In post season analysis, we might break that 78 hour mark, depending on when/where/if he makes landfall on Florida.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#6671 Postby wxman57 » Sun Sep 01, 2019 7:34 pm

SEASON_CANCELED wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:Very subtle south of west motion for the last couple hours.

https://imgshare.io/images/2019/09/01/6.gif



Can clearly see a wsw motion on miami radar


I'm measuring 268.2 deg, which is nearly due west. It would have to move toward 258 deg to be WSW. Just a tad south of due west, a wobble. Predicted by the models.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#6672 Postby 1900hurricane » Sun Sep 01, 2019 7:35 pm

00Z best track update down to 155 kt/915 mb. Based on what I've seen so far, that looks good to me. NE eyewall pass is coming up shortly.

AL, 05, 2019090200, , BEST, 0, 266N, 777W, 155, 915, HU, 34, NEQ, 120, 110, 70, 100, 1011, 150, 10, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, DORIAN, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 013,
AL, 05, 2019090200, , BEST, 0, 266N, 777W, 155, 915, HU, 50, NEQ, 80, 50, 50, 60, 1011, 150, 10, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, DORIAN, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 013,
AL, 05, 2019090200, , BEST, 0, 266N, 777W, 155, 915, HU, 64, NEQ, 40, 30, 25, 30, 1011, 150, 10, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, DORIAN, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 013,
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#6673 Postby tropicwatch » Sun Sep 01, 2019 7:36 pm

Freeport reporting sustained TS winds as of 9minutes ago.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#6674 Postby johngaltfla » Sun Sep 01, 2019 7:36 pm

wxman57 wrote:
SEASON_CANCELED wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:Very subtle south of west motion for the last couple hours.

https://imgshare.io/images/2019/09/01/6.gif



Can clearly see a wsw motion on miami radar


I'm measuring 268.2 deg, which is nearly due west. It would have to move toward 258 deg to be WSW. Just a tad south of due west, a wobble. Predicted by the models.


Barely south of due west. Storm is going to have to dive below 265 to verify some of the models from the other day.
Last edited by johngaltfla on Sun Sep 01, 2019 7:39 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#6675 Postby GeneratorPower » Sun Sep 01, 2019 7:36 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:Very subtle south of west motion for the last couple hours.

https://imgshare.io/images/2019/09/01/6.gif


Sure enough. Great image.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#6676 Postby TheDreamTraveler » Sun Sep 01, 2019 7:37 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:Very subtle south of west motion for the last couple hours.

https://imgshare.io/images/2019/09/01/6.gif


People on another forum were trying to dismiss it moving just a hair south of west and saying the guy who acknowledged it was wrong. Normally he's never wrong. I knew it lmao. It's VERY subtle but it's there.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#6677 Postby gatorcane » Sun Sep 01, 2019 7:37 pm

johngaltfla wrote:
wxman57 wrote:
SEASON_CANCELED wrote:

Can clearly see a wsw motion on miami radar


I'm measuring 268.2 deg, which is nearly due west. It would have to move toward 258 deg to be WSW. Just a tad south of due west, a wobble. Predicted by the models.


Barely south of due west. Storms going to have to dive below 265 to verify some of the models from the other day.


Last few frames look a bit more south but guessing a brief wobble
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#6678 Postby Aric Dunn » Sun Sep 01, 2019 7:37 pm

AutoPenalti wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:Very subtle south of west motion for the last couple hours.

https://imgshare.io/images/2019/09/01/6.gif

I don’t see it... it’s most likely trochoidal.

https://i1.wp.com/envirobites.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/trochoid.gif


every wobble regardless of how far plausibly brings it closer to florida down the line..
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Re: RE: Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#6679 Postby northjaxpro » Sun Sep 01, 2019 7:40 pm

GeneratorPower wrote:
northjaxpro wrote:
wxman57 wrote:
It has not been performing well with the track, and it predicts every disturbance to become a strong hurricane. I don't trust it at all. Nearly as bad as NOGAPS.


Well 57 I hear you. But right now, I am over here not only working overtime monitoring the storm, but I am trying to finish preps at homr and even.possibly prepare to likely leave yo get away from the storm by yommorrow night. . I am.not discounting any model at this junncture especially with a Category 5 monster bearing down too close for comfort here in my back yard off Northeast Flotida coast.


Not trying to be a grammar notzee but your posts are getting annoying with all the typos. Just sayin.


I am using my I-Phone on the go. My tempered glass has lead to stickiness on my phone keyboard. I try to edit as often as possible. I am not at home.on my computer with so many preps I am doing right now. I apologize to you allwith some of the typos. I will be home on my computer shortly to give my phone a rest.
Last edited by northjaxpro on Sun Sep 01, 2019 7:42 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#6680 Postby GeneratorPower » Sun Sep 01, 2019 7:40 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:
AutoPenalti wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:Very subtle south of west motion for the last couple hours.

https://imgshare.io/images/2019/09/01/6.gif

I don’t see it... it’s most likely trochoidal.

https://i1.wp.com/envirobites.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/trochoid.gif


every wobble regardless of how far plausibly brings it closer to florida down the line..


Not sure that’s the case. I think we need to see real SW movement for it to be meaningful.
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