ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#6641 Postby northjaxpro » Sun Sep 01, 2019 7:14 pm

If the HWRF model run.late today ends up verifying, the inner core/eyewall of Hurricane Dorian would move due north up the Interstate 95 corridor and pass firectly through Doentown Jacksonville as a 973 mb very strong Cat 2 or possiby low end Cat 3 cyclone on Wednesfay evrening.
Last edited by northjaxpro on Sun Sep 01, 2019 7:15 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#6642 Postby hipshot » Sun Sep 01, 2019 7:14 pm

AutoPenalti wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:
GCANE wrote:UL HIgh now positioned over NE GOM
Some afternoon popups over west FL eroding this a bit.
Steering not as strong as compared 6 hrs ago.
Expect popups to rain out shortly.
Diurnal cooling should build the UL High back up overnight.
Not seeing the trough doing much with this.


https://i.imgur.com/JgHqZYz.png

https://i.imgur.com/Fu4fwXU.gif

https://i.imgur.com/xt4H539.png


Hey GCANE the upper ridging is finally showing up on the steering maps..

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dlm6.GIF

That’s the 250mb ridging that Levi was talking about right?

Does he have a video for today up yet, I haven't seen it?
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Re: RE: Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#6643 Postby wxman57 » Sun Sep 01, 2019 7:14 pm

jlauderdal wrote:
northjaxpro wrote:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.
supercane4867 wrote:Both 18z HMON and HWRF have landfall on the Cape. Sadly the state of Florida may not dodge the bullet of the decade after all :cry:


The HWRF has been very persistent showing a landfall.on the East Central Florida Coast for the past couple of days. I have been on edge about this for awhile. It may indeed end up being right :(
It did very well with intensity


It has not been performing well with the track, and it predicts every disturbance to become a strong hurricane. I don't trust it at all. Nearly as bad as NOGAPS.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#6644 Postby supercane4867 » Sun Sep 01, 2019 7:16 pm

Intense eyewall lightning continues

Image

Amazing shot from two hours ago

Image
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#6645 Postby Kazmit » Sun Sep 01, 2019 7:18 pm

I'm going to have to make a new folder on my computer with the number of Dorian images I am saving.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#6646 Postby Ian2401 » Sun Sep 01, 2019 7:18 pm

dorian took a big lurch forward just now wonder what thats about

wobble watching continues
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#6647 Postby hipshot » Sun Sep 01, 2019 7:18 pm


It looks like Dorian eye will run the entire length of the Grand Bahama Island, ouch!!!
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#6648 Postby Bam Bam » Sun Sep 01, 2019 7:21 pm

What's the longest an Atlantic Storm stayed at Cat 5?
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#6649 Postby KBBOCA » Sun Sep 01, 2019 7:21 pm

Meteorcane wrote:
RL3AO wrote:



Sit back and look at this satellite image and think that most people in South Florida aren't really worried about this storm right now. That's a pretty crazy example of how confident people are in hurricane forecasts.


People take the great strides taken in numerical modeling (and meteorology as a whole) over the last couple decades for granted. 40 years ago all of south Florida would be under evacuation orders right now.


I moved to SFL in 1999 about 2 weeks after the terrible Floyd scare and the MASSIVE evacuation that caused when people didn't believe the turn would happen. I haven't reviewed the NHC forecasts from then, but yes, I do think there's been a HUGE tendency to trust the forecasts and believe the storm will turn as forecast. A lot has changed in forecasting science in the 20 years since Floyd! This storm is certainly putting that trust to the test.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#6650 Postby edu2703 » Sun Sep 01, 2019 7:23 pm

Bam Bam wrote:What's the longest an Atlantic Storm stayed at Cat 5?


Irma? 3 days as Cat 5
Last edited by edu2703 on Sun Sep 01, 2019 7:24 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#6651 Postby tropicwatch » Sun Sep 01, 2019 7:23 pm

It is not looking like it is going to follow this track.

Image
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Re: RE: Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#6652 Postby northjaxpro » Sun Sep 01, 2019 7:25 pm

wxman57 wrote:
jlauderdal wrote:
northjaxpro wrote:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.


The HWRF has been very persistent showing a landfall.on the East Central Florida Coast for the past couple of days. I have been on edge about this for awhile. It may indeed end up being right :(
It did very well with intensity


It has not been performing well with the track, and it predicts every disturbance to become a strong hurricane. I don't trust it at all. Nearly as bad as NOGAPS.


Well 57 I hear you. But right now, I am over here not only working overtime monitoring the storm, but I am trying to finish preps at home and even.possibly prepare to likely leave to get away from the storm by tommorow night. . I am.not discounting any model at this junncture, especially with a Category 5 monster bearing down too close for comfort here in my back yard off Florida East Coast.
Last edited by northjaxpro on Sun Sep 01, 2019 7:31 pm, edited 4 times in total.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#6653 Postby supercane4867 » Sun Sep 01, 2019 7:25 pm

edu2703 wrote:
Bam Bam wrote:What's the longest an Atlantic Storm stayed at Cat 5?


Irma?

Irma is correct. Over 60 hours of Straight CAT5. If you count 135kt then its over 3 full days
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#6654 Postby Buck » Sun Sep 01, 2019 7:25 pm

Bam Bam wrote:What's the longest an Atlantic Storm stayed at Cat 5?


Officially, the 1932 Cuba Hurricane. But that was 1932... I think otherwise it is Irma. Maybe followed by Ivan?
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#6655 Postby Aric Dunn » Sun Sep 01, 2019 7:25 pm

Very subtle south of west motion for the last couple hours.

Image
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#6656 Postby NFLnut » Sun Sep 01, 2019 7:26 pm

Kazmit wrote:I'm going to have to make a new folder on my computer with the number of Dorian images I am saving.


Did that two days ago. I'll be happy to delete it after Weds/Thurs! Get thee behind me! If Weds/Thurs ever get here.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#6657 Postby SEASON_CANCELED » Sun Sep 01, 2019 7:26 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:Very subtle south of west motion for the last couple hours.

https://imgshare.io/images/2019/09/01/6.gif



Can clearly see a wsw motion on miami radar
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#6658 Postby GCANE » Sun Sep 01, 2019 7:27 pm

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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#6659 Postby Meteorcane » Sun Sep 01, 2019 7:28 pm

Patrick99 wrote:
Michele B wrote:
mutley wrote:Just out of curiosity. Does anyone truly believe that Dorian is not going to make the turn, and go right into Florida's coast somewhere?


I’ll admit it. I’m skeptical.

Personally,’when I look at “trofs” and “ridges” I don’t see a big dip that looks like it’s going to pick this thing up.


I get it. It’s not that I don’t trust NHC. I do. But hey they are human, and thus have to be spectacularly wrong some time, right? This is also a special case where they wouldn’t even have to be THAT wrong in order to preside over a catastrophe. Chugging W into WPB would be bad enough....heaven forbid a WSW drift into Broward. Neither would really be spectacularly wrong with regard to their forecast, but the general public would view it as such. There’d be hell to pay.

For me, I just have a hard time reconciling the models with 2 graphics in particular:

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... anim=html5

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/w ... 22.05,2357

I look at those and think why wouldn’t this just keep going west at least in the near term, if not WSW?


I mean the official track shows essentially a W to slightly WNW movement in the short-term, it is not until during the day tomorrow that a solid N of W component to the motion should become evident. Additionally the system will continue to decelerate as well, and I think the very slow motion is throwing some people off in thinking the system is supposed to be turning NW soon. Also the NHC has issued hurricane warnings for a good portion of the Central Florida coast so people should certainly be prepared even if the "Cone centerline" depicts the system is offshore. The NHC makes it explicit the cone centerline and even the cone itself do not capture the extent of a storm's impacts, really you should be looking at the Hurricane Threats and Impacts (HTI) products that your local office issues in coordination with the NHC for that.
Last edited by Meteorcane on Sun Sep 01, 2019 7:29 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#6660 Postby Lexicals » Sun Sep 01, 2019 7:28 pm

Just had a little feeder band roll through here in Stuart. A few decent gusts with it. Still a few businesses open, hoping that they get to close up soon and be with their families.
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