ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[TallyTracker]

I wouldn’t be surprised if some of the south wobbles may be due to the EWRC rather than a change in motion. I agree with others that we should see a turn within 12 hours or we may be facing a serious situation in Florida.

[lrak]

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=spgf1

Location west of Freeport, Bahamas

[MacTavish]

Something to consider folks. Sometimes an inner eye can rotate within an outter eyewall during ERC. Best to judge movement over a period of hours right now

[Highteeld]

Lightning is now surrounding the entire eyewall.

[Yellow Evan]

Nearing T7.0 as we speak.

[RL3AO]

Maybe slightly S of due west

https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/d187d0c91e3366aa72c863fcedb7f56d155485ab22c82c0e0c39b0baa339f5bf.gif

I sure don't see any northern component to Dorian's movement. And it sure hasn't stalled.

I'm going to give it 18 hours to turn before I say model fail. But at this point in time, the next 6-12 hours is going to be a nail biter for everyone from Palm Beach to Charleston, SC.

NHC doesn't really have it turning until 36 hours.

[Ken711]

South Floridians are very tired of the “wolf cry” hurricane situation.


This time however, the local media including John morales have almost “vouched” that its turning north.

if it doesnt, that kind of misleading “confidence” should come with a resignation.

The way he spoke was arrogant and as if he felt there wasnt any “reasonable” possibility of it NOT going north without hitting Florida.

Just follow NHC as your most reliable source for information.

[Hurrilurker]

I wonder how high the pulse is at the NHC office waiting for the stall/turn north.

Pretty high. They can’t really win. If it does turn and they have hurricane warnings up, people will tune out the next time a major threatens and think they have some kind of magical shield around Florida. If they show a turn that keeps it offshore, but instead it keeps going west...well...

[Texashawk]

One thing I do see is a ring of solid black developing around the CDO. That’s not good...

[HurricaneFrances04]

The 5 pm forecast only has it gaining 0.2 of latitude in 24 hours. I think the big concern is how far west does it get, before turning north.

The 11 am advisory forecasted the 8 pm position to be 26.6 N 76.8 W. The 7 pm position is 26.6 N 76.7 W. Appears to be on track, so far.

[Airboy]

Extrap. Sfc. Press: 913.8 mb (26.99 inHg)

[ScottNAtlanta]

They just hit the center on recon...914
177 mph in the eyewall

[jasons2k]

NHC doesn't really have it turning until 36 hours.

https://i.imgur.com/B0RGZA5.png

That's a very small space to cover in 36 hours....

[johngaltfla]

I sure don't see any northern component to Dorian's movement. And it sure hasn't stalled.

I'm going to give it 18 hours to turn before I say model fail. But at this point in time, the next 6-12 hours is going to be a nail biter for everyone from Palm Beach to Charleston, SC.

NHC doesn't really have it turning until 36 hours.

https://i.imgur.com/B0RGZA5.png

My concern is that it takes the southern route south of Freeport within that 18 hour window. But we shall see as the science is not that exact.

[birdwomn]

Cool view of the sun setting over Dorian - wide view
https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/sector_band.php?sat=G16&sector=eus&band=GEOCOLOR&length=24

[ColdFusion]

Deleted

[Michele B]

Maybe slightly S of due west

https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/d187d0c91e3366aa72c863fcedb7f56d155485ab22c82c0e0c39b0baa339f5bf.gif

Sit back and look at this satellite image and think that most people in South Florida aren't really worried about this storm right now. That's a pretty crazy example of how confident people are in hurricane forecasts.

Yep. I'm sitting here thinking in the old days I would have no clue of the furious tempest just a few hundred miles away..

That’s how come so many perished in the Labor Day storm in the Keys, or the Lake Okeechobee storm. They never knew it was coming, how close it was,’or the strength of its intensity.

In fact, i heard a personal testimony today from someone who knew a about a little girl who drove out of the Keys with her dad to get supplies...they had heard a storm was approaching their home. They left the mom and three sisters in the Keys, and when they returned everything was demolished and they had perished.

[ronjon]

This is another scary SAT pic. What do the next three days foretell? A definite W-SW motion last few hours...does it continue like some of the UKMET ensembles that approach the peninsula? We're in the wobble watcher world now.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=05L&product=ir

[johngaltfla]

 https://twitter.com/WeatherOwen/status/1168299425841766401

[supercane4867]

One of the most impressive views of a tropical cyclone on earth