ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[mutley]

Maybe slightly S of due west

https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/d187d0c91e3366aa72c863fcedb7f56d155485ab22c82c0e0c39b0baa339f5bf.gif

I sure don't see any northern component to Dorian's movement. And it sure hasn't stalled.

[norva13x]

If it's eye goes south of Grand Bahama I don't see how it could correct in time to avoid Florida without a EURO like run of complete stop then due N

[weathaguyry]

It’s easy to go nuts looking at the clouds rotating in the eye trying to figure out the short term motion/wobbles. It’s extremely difficult to try and track the exact motion a very slow moving storm with your own eyes, that’s why it’s important to look at coordinates and overall trends over 3+ hour intervals.

[RL3AO]

Maybe slightly S of due west

https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/d187d0c91e3366aa72c863fcedb7f56d155485ab22c82c0e0c39b0baa339f5bf.gif

Sit back and look at this satellite image and think that most people in South Florida aren't really worried about this storm right now. That's a pretty crazy example of how confident people are in hurricane forecasts.

[Highteeld]

I suspect it's probably near peak intensity now. Not sure it has intensified much the past five hours. We'll see though with recon on the way.

What the heck is "peak intensity" and how is it calculated or derived?

Peak intensity is simply how strong it gets. Basically my personal forecast is that it isn't going to intensify very much from here. Of course, take that with a grain of salt. Tropical cyclones have humbled me many times.

Super Typhoon Lakima ended up being twice what was forecast at operational intensity by the JTWC... so they got humbled big time there. All of us are getting humbled by this one LOL.

[NFLnut]

So..its already burning through some of the turning checkpoints....

Anybody else got a bad feeling

Now? No. 12 hrs from now? We'll talk.

[supercane4867]

[Meteorcane]

Maybe slightly S of due west

https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/d187d0c91e3366aa72c863fcedb7f56d155485ab22c82c0e0c39b0baa339f5bf.gif

Sit back and look at this satellite image and think that most people in South Florida aren't really worried about this storm right now. That's a pretty crazy example of how confident people are in hurricane forecasts.

People take the great strides taken in numerical modeling (and meteorology as a whole) over the last couple decades for granted. 40 years ago all of south Florida would be under evacuation orders right now.

[Airboy]

I wonder how high the pulse is at the NHC office waiting for the stall/turn north.

[psyclone]

Maybe slightly S of due west

https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/d187d0c91e3366aa72c863fcedb7f56d155485ab22c82c0e0c39b0baa339f5bf.gif

Sit back and look at this satellite image and think that most people in South Florida aren't really worried about this storm right now. That's a pretty crazy example of how confident people are in hurricane forecasts.

Yep. I'm sitting here thinking in the old days I would have no clue of the furious tempest just a few hundred miles away..

[drezee]

Maybe slightly S of due west

https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/d187d0c91e3366aa72c863fcedb7f56d155485ab22c82c0e0c39b0baa339f5bf.gif

I have placed it into my sat program. 268 over the last 45 mins

[MacTavish]

So..its already burning through some of the turning checkpoints....

Anybody else got a bad feeling

Now? No. 12 hrs from now? We'll talk.

Great comment.

[AxaltaRacing24]

Maybe slightly S of due west

https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/d187d0c91e3366aa72c863fcedb7f56d155485ab22c82c0e0c39b0baa339f5bf.gif

Sit back and look at this satellite image and think that most people in South Florida aren't really worried about this storm right now. That's a pretty crazy example of how confident people are in hurricane forecasts.

People take the great strides taken in numerical modeling (and meteorology as a whole) over the last couple decades for granted. 40 years ago all of south Florida would be under evacuation orders right now.

Even if this were 2009, we would all be in mass panic down here.

[Michele B]

I suspect it's probably near peak intensity now. Not sure it has intensified much the past five hours. We'll see though with recon on the way.

What the heck is "peak intensity" and how is it calculated or derived?

Peak intensity is simply how strong it gets. Basically my personal forecast is that it isn't going to intensify very much from here. Of course, take that with a grain of salt. Tropical cyclones have humbled me many times.

But 185?!?!?

I think this thing has “peaked.” I wish it wasn’t over Bahamas while peaked, tho.

[Joe Snow]

Maybe slightly S of due west

https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/d187d0c91e3366aa72c863fcedb7f56d155485ab22c82c0e0c39b0baa339f5bf.gif

I sure don't see any northern component to Dorian's movement. And it sure hasn't stalled.

I am a watching a live radar feed constantly looping, to me it looks like a W-SW movement at this time, kinda like drifting in that direction

[Highteeld]

Hurricane Force wind field looks larger

[Nimbus]

If it's eye goes south of Grand Bahama I don't see how it could correct in time to avoid Florida without a EURO like run of complete stop then due N

Not to mention wiping out 50,000 people in Freeport.
Dorian should be at or above 27N by the time he passes north of Freeport.
If not I would start considering landfalls along the Florida coastline.

[drezee]

Eye is also contracting South. So it maybe part motion and the part contracting

[Dylan]

 https://twitter.com/DylanFedericoWX/status/1168297258007388161

[johngaltfla]

Maybe slightly S of due west

https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/d187d0c91e3366aa72c863fcedb7f56d155485ab22c82c0e0c39b0baa339f5bf.gif

I sure don't see any northern component to Dorian's movement. And it sure hasn't stalled.

I'm going to give it 18 hours to turn before I say model fail. But at this point in time, the next 6-12 hours is going to be a nail biter for everyone from Palm Beach to Charleston, SC.