ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Meteorcane]

Just out of curiosity. Does anyone truly believe that Dorian is not going to make the turn, and go right into Florida's coast somewhere?

I’ll admit it. I’m skeptical.

Personally,’when I look at “trofs” and “ridges” I don’t see a big dip that looks like it’s going to pick this thing up.

The current shortwave trough over the Ohio Valley will not really pick this thing, but it will cause the mean ridge position to shift far enough east to allow Dorian to round the western side of it. Once Dorian gains some latitude the mid-week shortwave should be what actually picks it up. Now how Dorian rounds the ridge is the big question for Florida.

[supercane4867]

Looks like these flat islands just have no effect on Dorian’s intensity at all

 https://twitter.com/danlindsey77/status/1168269979625459712

[MrJames]

The latest shear map

[Ian2401]

def south of west now. been doing it for about an hour now. will see if it continues. If it bounces around Great Bahama to the south like it bounced around Great Abaco to the North earlier it could have huge ramifications

[KWT]

Just unbelievable IR presentation and symmetry for so long now. Those waters are pure high octane fuel.

Its crazy, because there have been some really outstanding looking hurricanes in the last few years, especially Irma and Michael, but this one maybe the best out of all of them, maybe tied with Irma.

I was going to go to bed as its 11.20pm here, but I think I will stay up for this first round of recon...

Another from the UK! Recon always seems to fly in when I need to sleep! Will definitely stay up for it tho as a storm like this may not occur again in my lifetime. (Or maybe next year who knows nowadays)

I remember Wilma's ridiculous drop into the 880mbs, I can assure you it was a crazy night, especially with that tiny eye. However recon going into Patrica was also one of the maddest recon sessions as well, especially when it nearly reached the world record.

Anyway 900mbs is possible, the presentation has slightly improved again now its back over hot water again completely.

[SeaBrz_FL]

UL HIgh now positioned over NE GOM
Some afternoon popups over west FL eroding this a bit.
Steering not as strong as compared 6 hrs ago.
Expect popups to rain out shortly.
Diurnal cooling should build the UL High back up overnight.
Not seeing the trough doing much with this.

Those that survive this will never have to wonder if they are going to heaven or hell. They've already been to the latter.

[1900hurricane]

https://i.imgur.com/iFxyNWs.png

That's an outer eyewall.

[tiger_deF]

The latest shear map

https://i.imgur.com/AQ6k6Ym.gif

I am still pretty new to tracking but how has it possible reached and maintained category 5 strength with 20 kts of shear over the core?

[supercane4867]

18z HMON initialized Dorian at 900mb then intensifies it to 891mb three hours later(which is close to current time)

Recon gonna be interesting for sure. Rita’s record may fall

[jlauderdal]

Feel like a Florida landfall is very likely if the cone shift anymore west...

Im done with the cone next 48 hrs at least..this is a watch the sat and radar, steering pattern situation

I will be monitoring wobble posts, ha

[ScottNAtlanta]

The ridge steering this is oriented toward the SW. Sort of shaped like a banana. If the west end doesnt break down quickly enough there might be some south of west motion.

[michelinj]

https://i.imgur.com/iFxyNWs.png

That looks like a secondary eyewall has formed? I may well be wrong tho as IR shows nothing to signify EWRC

[SunnyThoughts]

HMON @ 18 hours better start turning

[Bunkertor]

Yeah people nearly always underestimate what winds feel like. In the UK we often get decent wind storms. My personal strongest I can remember was probably a gust around 85-90mph and it was very impressive. Even 60mph gusts will make you need to get into a decent stance as you try to walk/stand. Beyond that it gets pretty hard to walk around.

Will be interesting, what is left over when it arrives at us.

[supercane4867]

https://i.imgur.com/iFxyNWs.png

That's an outer eyewall.

Still in the very early stage of a potential ERC. Most likely it’s continuing to intensify for now

[MacTavish]

https://i.imgur.com/iFxyNWs.png

That's an outer eyewall.

Going to be a big eye and pretty worrisome if dorian can compete the cycle before less favorable conditions arrive

[Hurricane Andrew]

The latest shear map

https://i.imgur.com/AQ6k6Ym.gif

I am still pretty new to tracking but how has it possible reached and maintained category 5 strength with 20 kts of shear over the core?

So that map shows any kind of shear, including that produced by the storm itself.

[cheezyWXguy]

https://i.imgur.com/iFxyNWs.png

That looks like a secondary eyewall has formed? I may well be wrong tho as IR shows nothing to signify EWRC

Definite second eyewall forming on radar. Good thing recon is heading in now, as this might be our last chance to determine dorians true peak strength

[WeatherEmperor]

https://i.imgur.com/iFxyNWs.png

That looks like a secondary eyewall has formed? I may well be wrong tho as IR shows nothing to signify EWRC

Definite second eyewall forming on radar. Good thing recon is heading in now, as this might be our last chance to determine dorians true peak strength

What time will recon be in the eye?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Blinhart]

https://i.imgur.com/iFxyNWs.png

That's an outer eyewall.

Going to be a big eye and pretty worrisome if dorian can compete the cycle before less favorable conditions arrive

Or it could do like a few others have just have an outer eyewall stall there and slowly expand while an inner eyewall forms and then dissipates and pushes the pressures even further down.