ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[supercane4867]

https://i.imgur.com/8NmetPO.png

I'm wondering if we will go sub-900 when Recon gets back? It looks to be only stronger now.

My guess is somewhere near 900mb. Winds could be slightly higher or stay the same

[sikkar]

Just unbelievable IR presentation and symmetry for so long now. Those waters are pure high octane fuel.

[BobHarlem]

From looking at long term radar loops, showing it bouncing around a little .. http://flhurricane.com/imageanimator.php?467

[supercane4867]

Going down to the history books. Absolutely breathtaking presentation

[ozonepete]

From looking at long term radar loops, showing it bouncing around a little .. http://flhurricane.com/imageanimator.php?467

What's really noticeable from your loop is the slowdown.

[Nimbus]

The cirrus clouds are expanding north without any restriction.
The ridge comes into play further north after the turn?

[supercane4867]

It better start turning NW or Freeport(population 50K) is going to be doomed

[KWT]

Just unbelievable IR presentation and symmetry for so long now. Those waters are pure high octane fuel.

Its crazy, because there have been some really outstanding looking hurricanes in the last few years, especially Irma and Michael, but this one maybe the best out of all of them, maybe tied with Irma.

I was going to go to bed as its 11.20pm here, but I think I will stay up for this first round of recon...

[hipshot]

UL HIgh now positioned over NE GOM
Some afternoon popups over west FL eroding this a bit.
Steering not as strong as compared 6 hrs ago.
Expect popups to rain out shortly.
Diurnal cooling should build the UL High back up overnight.
Not seeing the trough doing much with this.


https://i.imgur.com/JgHqZYz.png

https://i.imgur.com/Fu4fwXU.gif

https://i.imgur.com/xt4H539.png

Does anyone think that the high over west Texas will have any affect since Dorian is moving sooooo slowly?

[Bunkertor]

Can it be, that there is a steering deep pressure area in the North Florida region ?

[MacTavish]

Gona be looking hard for a secondary wind maximum on recon

[Emmett_Brown]

As steering currents collapse, and Dorian slows or stalls, it will be very interesting to see how it moves. I have never seen a storm this strong stall before... the only storm that comes to mind is when Mitch stalled along the N coast of Honduras. Mitch ended up being "pulled" south into the coastline, seemingly because of his owning spinning and friction with land... not sure if that was the reason, just looked like it to me at the time. What will happen with extremely powerful Dorian when he stalls... will he meander like a top? For now, we watch and wait.

[SEASON_CANCELED]

It better start turning NW or Freeport(population 50K) is going to be doomed

https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/50d115e4d86084f4f0a4e34f487f2d931dd010989067134bcb6a4459f3100ef2.gif

Its not supposed to turn north for another 12 hours. So do the math...at 3-5 mph freeports gonna get eye juice

[gatorcane]

If it wobbles WSW anytime soon then it could bounce off the south coast of Grand Bahama and cause it to go into or get closer to Florida. Just a thought.

https://i.imgur.com/EYBSQRb.gif

A hair S of due west motion is happening...

Indeed there are some hair south of west wobbles as some of the model guidance hinted at. Note the GFS moves this more W-WNW.

[PandaCitrus]

Need to closely watch the approach to Grand Bahama Island. Island Frictional Effects could cause Dorian to ride the slope of the island south or north. Obviously, going south of Grand Bahama would have enormous ramifications on track.

 https://twitter.com/crankywxguy/status/1168191309493997569

[KWT]

It better start turning NW or Freeport(population 50K) is going to be doomed

https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/50d115e4d86084f4f0a4e34f487f2d931dd010989067134bcb6a4459f3100ef2.gif

Unfortunately most models don't turn it meaningfully northwards until roughly the eastern end of the Grand Bahama, so likely they will get the west/SW eyewall of Dorian I fear.

[mutley]

Just out of curiosity. Does anyone truly believe that Dorian is not going to make the turn, and go right into Florida's coast somewhere?

I’ll admit it. I’m skeptical.

Personally,’when I look at “trofs” and “ridges” I don’t see a big dip that looks like it’s going to pick this thing up.

I feel the same way. That's why I was asking. I believe the knowledgeable folks on here that the turn will happen. However, it is not easy to see why.

[cheezyWXguy]

Just unbelievable IR presentation and symmetry for so long now. Those waters are pure high octane fuel.

Its crazy, because there have been some really outstanding looking hurricanes in the last few years, especially Irma and Michael, but this one maybe the best out of all of them, maybe tied with Irma.

I was going to go to bed as its 11.20pm here, but I think I will stay up for this first round of recon...

Irma was incredible, but I think Dorian wins. Cloud tops are colder, and more symmetrical in the cdo. I can’t recall irma’s Eye temp but I imagine they’re pretty similar

[michelinj]

Just unbelievable IR presentation and symmetry for so long now. Those waters are pure high octane fuel.

Its crazy, because there have been some really outstanding looking hurricanes in the last few years, especially Irma and Michael, but this one maybe the best out of all of them, maybe tied with Irma.

I was going to go to bed as its 11.20pm here, but I think I will stay up for this first round of recon...

Another from the UK! Recon always seems to fly in when I need to sleep! Will definitely stay up for it tho as a storm like this may not occur again in my lifetime. (Or maybe next year who knows nowadays)

[Highteeld]