ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[southerngreen]

John Morales just gave a literal 10 minute monologue about how this storm is going to turn and nothing bad is going to happen in Dade and Broward and MAYBE worst case scenario hurricane force winds in the upper corner of Palm Beach County. “They might have winds of 110 and that’s what you want to put shutters up for.”
He is really dismissive of people’s concerns. He is probably right but he grinds my gears as he speaks from MountOlympus, especially since he blew Dorians dissipation after PR

You absolutely can't count them out, especially when there is so much at stake.

[boulderrr]

Ive posted it several times that in reality at this point LANDFALL is the better option as running up the coast will leave a much longer path of destruction.

I 100% disagree with this. "At this point landfall is the better option" is very incorrect. The storm's center of circulation is currently forecast to remain far enough offshore that the impact would be nothing to Dorian making landfall and then still tracking up the peninsula. It's not going to disappear if it makes landfall and the amount of destruction would be magnitudes higher than if the center stays 40+ miles off the coast.

This is correct, although you can certainly have TC impacts away from the center (especially heavy rain, rainband tornadoes, and rough surf), the vast majority of truly destructive wind (and surge) damage are going to occur in the eyewall. This is especially true in an intense but relatively compact storm like Dorian is, although granted it will likely expand somewhat in size due to both increasingly latitude and the fact that at some point it will likely undergo and EWRC. If Florida can avoid the eyewall it will be a much different scenario than if Dorian does get close enough for the eyewall to impact land (even if the center doesn't actually make landfall).

Matthew comes to mind. It was a destructive storm, but could've caused a lot more damage in FL had the entire eye made landfall. I did my Master's research and thesis on how a very minor deviation in a storm's landfall of as little as 30 miles can change the overall damage by multiples. This is especially true when you're talking landfall vs. no landfall.

[CrazyC83]

I 100% disagree with this. "At this point landfall is the better option" is very incorrect. The storm's center of circulation is currently forecast to remain far enough offshore that the impact would be nothing to Dorian making landfall and then still tracking up the peninsula. It's not going to disappear if it makes landfall and the amount of destruction would be magnitudes higher than if the center stays 40+ miles off the coast.

This is correct, although you can certainly have TC impacts away from the center (especially heavy rain, rainband tornadoes, and rough surf), the vast majority of truly destructive wind (and surge) damage are going to occur in the eyewall. This is especially true in an intense but relatively compact storm like Dorian is, although granted it will likely expand somewhat in size due to both increasingly latitude and the fact that at some point it will likely undergo and EWRC. If Florida can avoid the eyewall it will be a much different scenario than if Dorian does get close enough for the eyewall to impact land (even if the center doesn't actually make landfall).

Matthew comes to mind. It was a destructive storm, but could've caused a lot more damage in FL had the entire eye made landfall. I did my Master's research and thesis on how a very minor deviation in a storm's landfall of as little as 30 miles can change the overall damage by multiples. This is especially true when you're talking landfall vs. no landfall.

Since most of the damage with Matthew was with water, all the damage up the coast would have still happened regardless even if it had weakened over land. Jacksonville is a unique case too - it would have had it much worse from water, since heavy rain in central Florida would flow into the St. John's just as the storm surge would come in, rather than having them occur separately (and rain wasn't a real issue in Florida during Matthew).

[jhpigott]

idk who he is but he sounds really irresponsible and makes 110mph winds no big deal.

You all know me as probably the strictest "there's no such thing as a weak hurricane" poster on this board.

Allow me to reiterate.

If you think 110mph is "nothing", opening your mouth is dangerous to yourself and everyone around you.

70mph winds will topple a semi in the right conditions. 100mph winds can take out a window. Step outside in those 100mph winds? You'd better have something to hold onto, or you're going on a ride. If not, you'll get smacked by debris that is also traveling at 100mph. Do you know what it's like to take a chunk of roof at 100mph? I don't, and I never want to.

110 mph winds means power out for weeks. You may lose your roof as well and trees will be down everywhere.

Not very comforting to this guy who will ocassionally run from his house to Jupiter Inlet for exercise. This little corner of NE PBC sticks its nose out into the Atlantic. At this point, almost looks like a given I'm getting a prolonged period of TS conditions, with some potential for hurricane force gusts even if Dorian stays offshore

[mpic]

Just out of curiosity. Does anyone truly believe that Dorian is not going to make the turn, and go right into Florida's coast somewhere?

I believe it

Any guess as to where on the coast?

Personally I don't thi k guessing is a good idea at all given the intensity of this situation.

[jlauderdal]

John Morales just gave a literal 10 minute monologue about how this storm is going to turn and nothing bad is going to happen in Dade and Broward and MAYBE worst case scenario hurricane force winds in the upper corner of Palm Beach County. “They might have winds of 110 and that’s what you want to put shutters up for.”
He is really dismissive of people’s concerns. He is probably right but he grinds my gears as he speaks from MountOlympus, especially since he blew Dorians dissipation after PR

You absolutely can't count them out, especially when there is so much at stake.

John Morales has been very disappointing from day 1 with this storm, yesterday morales tweeted about how important it was for him to watch the liverpool match..i have moved on to craig setzer, still follow morales but he busted and shows too much tude.

[tarheelprogrammer]

Last few frames appear to show Dorian drifting SW. Could be a wobble? IDK.

[catskillfire51]

I keep seeing people talk about the MOAT, first I've seen this terminology can someone explain

[BlowHard]

Just out of curiosity. Does anyone truly believe that Dorian is not going to make the turn, and go right into Florida's coast somewhere?

Yup.

[Jelff]

I just discovered that NOAA is hosting the GOES satellite imagery on their GIS server so I added that as an overlay to the interactive map I produce.

The GOES imagery is updated every 15 minutes. To see the updated image, turn the GOES overlay off then on. You can also reload the map. Need help? Click "Map tips" in upper left corner.

Open GISsurfer map:
https://mappingsupport.com/p2/gissurfer ... _flood.txt

[Blinhart]

Just out of curiosity. Does anyone truly believe that Dorian is not going to make the turn, and go right into Florida's coast somewhere?

I believe it

Any guess as to where on the coast?

That I'm not sure of, but I definitely believe it will make landfall.

[cjrciadt]

I just discovered that NOAA is hosting the GOES satellite imagery on their GIS server so I added that as an overlay to the interactive map I produce.

The GOES imagery is updated every 15 minutes. To see the updated image, turn the GOES overlay off then on. You can also reload the map. Need help? Click "Map tips" in upper left corner.

Open GISsurfer map:
https://mappingsupport.com/p2/gissurfer ... _flood.txt

Thank you!

[1900hurricane]

I keep seeing people talk about the MOAT, first I've seen this terminology can someone explain

It's the region just outside of the (innermost) eyewall where there is some subsidence. When it sharpens up, it can cut the eyewall off from a developing outer eyewall/rest of the storm, leading to the beginning of eyewall replacement.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Looking at the loops, it doesnt look like it has slowed down very much

[AutoPenalti]

Last few frames appear to show Dorian drifting SW. Could be a wobble? IDK.

It’s a wobble.

[sponger]

Last few frames appear to show Dorian drifting SW. Could be a wobble? IDK.

Noticed that as well but there was zero chance I was going to mention it. We will call it an optical illusion.

[ozonepete]

Just out of curiosity. Does anyone truly believe that Dorian is not going to make the turn, and go right into Florida's coast somewhere?

Um, wait a minute. Your question is worded very weirdly. Are you asking if most of us think it's going to hit Florida or are you asking if we think it's not?

It doesn't matter for you. I already know your thoughts and they are in cement. But for the benefit of others, I was asking who believes it will hit the Florida coast.

My thoughts are never "in cement." My thoughts are considered and change with new data as necessary. Your comment was unneccesary.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Last few frames appear to show Dorian drifting SW. Could be a wobble? IDK.

Noticed that as well but there was zero chance I was going to mention it. We will call it an optical illusion.

Wobble Rouser

[KWT]

Looks like the last 2hrs have gone back to a 275 heading after a bit of a brief WNW motion.

It is slower then it was 6hrs ago, but still perhaps a little faster than the 12z suite had expected by this point.

[tarheelprogrammer]

Last few frames appear to show Dorian drifting SW. Could be a wobble? IDK.

Noticed that as well but there was zero chance I was going to mention it. We will call it an optical illusion.

Wobble Rouser

It's all about that #wobblelife