ATL: KAREN - Models

[LarryWx]

why is it tough to accept the euro, its one of the bst modesl here in the medium to long range...when nhc is accepting then it should be easy for the rest of us to accept

That's pretty much what I posted dude. I'm in agreement. If the NHC is leaning that way then why shouldn't we?

FWI,

Most EPS members now just stall the odds off an eventual recurve in my opinion have gone up.

My source for the 6Z EPS suggests that whereas many members don’t become an actual TC, about 2/3-3/4 of the ones that do become a TC move W or at least with some W component of motion starting Saturday after moving NNE and then reaching the 60-62W area Friday night. It is impossible to tell how many would have gone on to hit the CONUS because it ends at 144. The 0Z had about 15% hit (8 members).

[LarryWx]

The 6Z Euro, which ends at hour 90 (Fri evening), then has her 125-150 miles north of the 0Z Euro, which had her 27N, 60W at the pause. The 6Z has her paused at 29N, 60W.

[WeatherEmperor]

The 6Z Euro, which ends at hour 90 (Fri evening), then has her 125-150 miles north of the 0Z Euro, which had her 27N, 60W at the pause. The 6Z has her paused at 29N, 60W.

Looks like the Euro is going further and further north each time. Does that mean it is trending closer to the UKMET.....which is furthest north?

[LarryWx]

The 6Z Euro, which ends at hour 90 (Fri evening), then has her 125-150 miles north of the 0Z Euro, which had her 27N, 60W at the pause. The 6Z has her paused at 29N, 60W.

Looks like the Euro is going further and further north each time. Does that mean it is trending closer to the UKMET.....which is furthest north?

Closer to the 0Z UKMET but the 0Z UKMET is quite a bit further N up at 31N when reaching its farthest east point and later gets to say up at ~34N.

[Jr0d]

Given what Karen is currently doing vs what the models show, I do not think any of them, even the Euro and especially the GFS have a proper initialization. Today's forecasting will be tricky in my opinion.

When Karen makes it north of Puerto Rico and with better inputs to the models, then I think the models will start having a realistic output.

[northjaxpro]

The 6Z Euro, which ends at hour 90 (Fri evening), then has her 125-150 miles north of the 0Z Euro, which had her 27N, 60W at the pause. The 6Z has her paused at 29N, 60W.

Looks like the Euro is going further and further north each time. Does that mean it is trending closer to the UKMET.....which is furthest north?

Too soon to gauge that just yet. I would wait at least a couple of more run cycles to say if it has joined the UKMET with its north solution.

[boca]

I know it’s too early but I don’t think Karen will not threaten Florida because even if it turns west the next trough will catch it and the Euro is trending up towards 29 north before the turn so I’m feeling better.

[northjaxpro]

I know it’s too early but I don’t think Karen will not threaten Florida because even if it turns west the next trough will catch it and the Euro is trending up towards 29 north before the turn so I’m feeling better.

Actually, I agree with you.

[sma10]

12Z ICON actually isn't that dissimilar from the Euro or the NHC official forecast. The only difference is that instead of Karen remaining her own entity, she is absorbed by Jerry, thus the system is further East.

[p1nheadlarry]

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1176492662272266241

I like how much is focused on the intensity and track of a storm may change from model run to model run within 3-5 days, yet synoptic dynamics like this high PV air in the tropics at day 5 is somehow set in stone (Webb isn’t saying that here, but bloggers traditionally have).

[LarryWx]

The 6Z Euro, which ends at hour 90 (Fri evening), then has her 125-150 miles north of the 0Z Euro, which had her 27N, 60W at the pause. The 6Z has her paused at 29N, 60W.

Looks like the Euro is going further and further north each time. Does that mean it is trending closer to the UKMET.....which is furthest north?

Too soon to gauge that just yet. I would wait at least a couple of more run cycles to say if it has joined the UKMET with its north solution.

Here’s one important thing imo: as of 12Z on Thu the 6Z Euro has Jerry up at 35N whereas the 0Z UKMET has him way down at 32N. As a result, the UKMET has Karen a couple of hundred miles closer to Jerry than does the 6Z Euro, which helps to pull Karen even further north. Bottom line for this post: Jerry’s movement over next 1-2 days will likely tell us a lot about how far NE Karen will get before she pauses.

[Jr0d]

I know it’s too early but I don’t think Karen will not threaten Florida because even if it turns west the next trough will catch it and the Euro is trending up towards 29 north before the turn so I’m feeling better.

I am not seeing another trough on the Euro that could pick Karen through the next 200 hours. Obviously a lot can change in the long range models though and I'm just an amateur trying to interpret the models.

[plasticup]

The 6Z Euro, which ends at hour 90 (Fri evening), then has her 125-150 miles north of the 0Z Euro, which had her 27N, 60W at the pause. The 6Z has her paused at 29N, 60W.

As the UKMET has been saying all along: Bermuda.

[otowntiger]

I know we can't depend on models yet to see what kind of intensity it will have beyond 3 days, if even then, but in looking at the Euro and GFS they show this thing just about disappearing beyond day 5, right? Am I seeing that correctly? I realize track is a little more deterministic of the dynamic set up to focus more on what will happen but with the system degrading so much (or from what I'm seeing) its almost impossible to even see where its going if the 'it' doesn't exist or is not very discernable. Am I right in my understanding that at this point the Euro and GFS show it deteriorating significantly?

[sma10]

Fwiw, there is finally decent agreement between gfs and euro.

12z GFS 108hr position aligns pretty well with 0z euro 96 hr position. Euro a bit better defined

[toad strangler]

12z GFS is taking what is left of Jerry and Karen to the W in tandem. What a hot mess. I am growing very confident that none of this will amount to much of anything post PR.

[SFLcane]

12z GFS is taking what is left of Jerry and Karen to the W in tandem. What a hot mess. I am growing very confident that none of this will amount to much of anything post PR.

The models have none done anything with it for a few cycles now. Just the usual aggressive HWRF.

Euro is quite weak

[Frank2]

From the 11 am TCD:

The new forecast track will continue the trend of the
previous forecast and the ECMWF model in showing the ridge building
enough to turn Karen west-southwestward by 120 h. However, other
models suggest a looping motion or little motion during the 96-120
h, and this part of the forecast track is quite uncertain.

This is what was referred to in my earlier post to the discussion board - only 6 members now plot a westward track, all others show it moving in a looping or slow moving motion (likely before another trough picks up it).

The chance of a "7" track is very low, versus an "S" track that follows the coriolis northward and then eastward. A hard left could happen - but the chance is much lower than a system following a general northward then northeastward track.

Personaly, I'm glad - the last thing the Bahamas or Florida need is another hurricane landfall or serious threat.

Frank

[toad strangler]

GFS re-curves OTS the weak vort left from Karen again on 12z

[stormlover2013]

GFS re-curves OTS the weak vort left from Karen again on 12z

curves it out because GFS has a strong cold front making it into the GOM