ATL: DORIAN - Models

[SEASON_CANCELED]

Did the models account for almost 6 hours of NO movement? Will this have any implications of Dorian missing that trough that is supposed to scoop it up?

Yeah I think the Euro did. Not sure about the impacts from the trough.

No it didn't...it should of lifted NWN by now

[LarryWx]

Did the models account for almost 6 hours of NO movement? Will this have any implications of Dorian missing that trough that is supposed to scoop it up?

Absolutely..actually much longer.

[SEASON_CANCELED]

Did the models account for almost 6 hours of NO movement? Will this have any implications of Dorian missing that trough that is supposed to scoop it up?

Absolutely..actually much longer.

Can you link the model? Because we were preparing for impact tommorrow morning in florida not 2 days from now.

This was on Saturday.

Seems to me models are trying to keep up and not necessarily forecast

[LarryWx]

Did the models account for almost 6 hours of NO movement? Will this have any implications of Dorian missing that trough that is supposed to scoop it up?

Absolutely..actually much longer.

Can you link the model? Because we were preparing for impact tommorrow morning in florida not 2 days from now.

This was on Saturday.

Seems to me models are trying to keep up and not necessarily forecast

viewtopic.php?p=2771854#p2771854

[SEASON_CANCELED]

Absolutely..actually much longer.

Can you link the model? Because we were preparing for impact tommorrow morning in florida not 2 days from now.

This was on Saturday.

Seems to me models are trying to keep up and not necessarily forecast

viewtopic.php?p=2771854#p2771854

My man that was today.

You can't run a model same day and be like " oh we told you so"

Show me a model from Saturday. When it supposed to hit florida tommorrow. You cant because models are changing as fast as the storm.

[tel813]

Can you link the model? Because we were preparing for impact tommorrow morning in florida not 2 days from now.

This was on Saturday.

Seems to me models are trying to keep up and not necessarily forecast[/quote]

viewtopic.php?p=2771854#p2771854[/quote]


My man that was today.

You can't run a model same day and be like " oh we told you so"

Show me a model from Saturday. When it supposed to hit florida tommorrow. You cant because models are changing as fast as the storm.[/quote]

The euro model was hinting at it for a while. I believe this link is from a model run on Saturday and shows a stall or very slow movement for 24 hours at least.

https://tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/mo ... 3100&fh=60

[drewschmaltz]

Did the models account for almost 6 hours of NO movement? Will this have any implications of Dorian missing that trough that is supposed to scoop it up?

Absolutely..actually much longer.

Can you link the model? Because we were preparing for impact tommorrow morning in florida not 2 days from now.

This was on Saturday.

Seems to me models are trying to keep up and not necessarily forecast

This was Saturday Aug 31.... I mean the trend is a little more south but.... I mean.....

[Canelaw99]

Absolutely..actually much longer.

Can you link the model? Because we were preparing for impact tommorrow morning in florida not 2 days from now.

This was on Saturday.

Seems to me models are trying to keep up and not necessarily forecast

This was Saturday Aug 31.... I mean the trend is a little more south but.... I mean.....

https://storage.googleapis.com/shared_by_drew/9536c5cc-00bd-4fde-a1b2-93cf965f5ee1.gif

That is a trend of models valid for the same time Monday. Not necessarily a run from Sat showing the full path. What the poster is looking for, I think, is a full model run from Sat showing the stall this long.

[drewschmaltz]

Can you link the model? Because we were preparing for impact tommorrow morning in florida not 2 days from now.

This was on Saturday.

Seems to me models are trying to keep up and not necessarily forecast

This was Saturday Aug 31.... I mean the trend is a little more south but.... I mean.....

https://storage.googleapis.com/shared_by_drew/9536c5cc-00bd-4fde-a1b2-93cf965f5ee1.gif

That is a trend of models valid for the same time Monday. Not necessarily a run from Sat showing the full path. What the poster is looking for, I think, is a full model run from Sat showing the stall this long.

Yeah. Valid for like just recently. Stall or no stall the models have predicted Dorian to be right here for 2 days. This will be my last post on the subject. My signature is no joke. I am a N00B. But even I can see that this is not way off forecast! And this is a trend that absolutely proves that point.

[Hurrilurker]

Did the models account for almost 6 hours of NO movement? Will this have any implications of Dorian missing that trough that is supposed to scoop it up?

The other question is, is there some other steering current coming from elsewhere that would send it in a different direction? It's hard for me to believe it's going to just sit there (without dissipating) for the next 4 days or whenever the next northern trough shows up.

[b0tzy29]

Sorry guys, didn’t mean to start an argument, was just an innocent question. Thanks for the feedback!

[RL3AO]

The models basically all agreed on the stall near Grand Bahama and missing Florida at least 36 hours ago. Some like the Euro had it even further back.

Euro



GFS



UKMET

[storm4u]

18z Euro?

[Duke95]

Not sure I understand the surprise at the stall. It has been expected since Saturday if I am not mistaken.

[shaneomac]

Sure hope Atlantic Canada is keeping an eye on this one. Could still be a very potent storm by the time it makes it's way up there.

Seems like the majority of these storms always end up passing to their E, but then again there was Juan, and Igor.

Yeah looks interesting for our neck of the woods , only time can tell i suppose .

[toad strangler]

Stall or major slowing began to appear on late Thursday .... or there about. Honestly I’m stunned at how well this has played out.

[RL3AO]

Stall or major slowing began to appear on late Thursday .... or there about. Honestly I’m stunned at how well this has played out.

Even last night people were freaking out thinking the 5 mph would continue. And then it just stopped.

[b0tzy29]

Not sure I understand the surprise at the stall. It has been expected since Saturday if I am not mistaken.

Wasn’t surprised by it per say. I understood the storm was going to slow down to 1mph or even .5 mph. I wasn’t expecting the weather channel to have “stationary” on the screen while this thing arguably is wobbling east as we speak. Insane!

[MJGarrison]

18z Euro?

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[storm4u]

Thank you

18z Euro?

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