ATL: DORIAN - Models

[TheDreamTraveler]

If you're on the coast in Massachusetts, Maine, Nova Scotia I'd start paying more attention to Dorian's track up the coast. Yes I know the board is very bias towards florida, the gulf coast and texas but I still think it's worth noting. Euro and GFS are showing this getting awfully close.

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1168612617545494533

[boulderrr]

18Z:

[hohnywx]

If you're on the coast in Massachusetts, Maine, Nova Scotia I'd start paying more attention to Dorian's track up the coast. Yes I know the board is very bias towards florida, the gulf coast and texas but I still think it's worth noting. Euro and GFS are showing this getting awfully close.

https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1168612617545494533

Thanks for posting. Yes, the GFS is showing a much closer approach than the Euro. We will see how the modeling goes during the early part of this week.

[storm4u]

Watching closely in Southern New England

If you're on the coast in Massachusetts, Maine, Nova Scotia I'd start paying more attention to Dorian's track up the coast. Yes I know the board is very bias towards florida, the gulf coast and texas but I still think it's worth noting. Euro and GFS are showing this getting awfully close.

https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1168612617545494533

[syfr]

Maybe I'm just "wish-watching" but there does not seem to be a great deal of change with any of the models in the proximity to the NC coastline. It's almost as if the OBX is the pivot point of these.

[PTrackerLA]

The Euro 00z ensembles from 8/29 were the first indications of an OTS scenario while all other guidance and the Euro operational were still showing florida landfalls/getting into the gulf. I also noted how the vast majority of the stronger members were favoring a recurve which was well before Dorian rapidly strengthened. I'll make note to pay close attention to them for future storms that threaten land.

On the flip side, this storm might be the beginning of complacency in the Florida peninsula for the next storm. One day the luck will run out but count your blessings for now.

[CronkPSU]

The Euro 00z ensembles from 8/29 were the first indications of an OTS scenario while all other guidance and the Euro operational were still showing florida landfalls/getting into the gulf. I also noted how the vast majority of the stronger members were favoring a recurve which was well before Dorian rapidly strengthened. I'll make note to pay close attention to them for future storms that threaten land.

On the flip side, this storm might be the beginning of complacency in the Florida peninsula for the next storm. One day the luck will run out but count your blessings for now.

or it still might wobble or take a more wnw angle and still hit Florida....

[toad strangler]

The Euro 00z ensembles from 8/29 were the first indications of an OTS scenario while all other guidance and the Euro operational were still showing florida landfalls/getting into the gulf. I also noted how the vast majority of the stronger members were favoring a recurve which was well before Dorian rapidly strengthened. I'll make note to pay close attention to them for future storms that threaten land.

On the flip side, this storm might be the beginning of complacency in the Florida peninsula for the next storm. One day the luck will run out but count your blessings for now.

Recurving Atlantic Basin cyclones are straight up climo. It takes very anomalous scenarios to bring an MDR storm close to the CONUS. Almost have that now and unfortunately for the N Bahamas a 100 year plus worst case scenario unfolded for them. The E coast of FL has not seen a landfalling Hurricane since Katrina in 2005 because of regular climo winning out.

[SEASON_CANCELED]

So..

Why isnt it lifting out yet.

Most models said this would start 12 hours ago but now they keep sandbagging it back more

[Sanibel]

So..

Why isnt it lifting out yet.

Most models said this would start 12 hours ago but now they keep sandbagging it back more

Because the blocking Highs are strong enough to trap it but weak enough not to send it along and the trough isn't strong enough to break the Highs....

[PavelGaborik10]

Sure hope Atlantic Canada is keeping an eye on this one. Could still be a very potent storm by the time it makes it's way up there.

Seems like the majority of these storms always end up passing to their E, but then again there was Juan, and Igor.

[SEASON_CANCELED]

Sure hope Atlantic Canada is keeping an eye on this one. Could still be a very potent storm by the time it makes it's way up there.

Seems like the majority of these storms always end up passing to their E, but then again there was Juan, and Igor.

So the alternate scenario was this being stationary till Thursday.

I pray that this is not happening, for the Bahamas sake

[TheStormExpert]

The Euro 00z ensembles from 8/29 were the first indications of an OTS scenario while all other guidance and the Euro operational were still showing florida landfalls/getting into the gulf. I also noted how the vast majority of the stronger members were favoring a recurve which was well before Dorian rapidly strengthened. I'll make note to pay close attention to them for future storms that threaten land.
On the flip side, this storm might be the beginning of complacency in the Florida peninsula for the next storm. One day the luck will run out but count your blessings for now.

Between Dorian and Matthew Florida has lucked out big time! Of course NE Florida was scrapped with the outer fringes of the western eye wall during Matthew, then there was Irma a year later so our luck hasn’t necessarily been that lucky but it’s been better than it could’ve been in the FL peninsula, panhandle not so much. This would have been an epic catastrophe for both the Bahamas and Florida had that slow down and stall happened 80-100 miles to the west.

[drewschmaltz]

Sure hope Atlantic Canada is keeping an eye on this one. Could still be a very potent storm by the time it makes it's way up there.

Seems like the majority of these storms always end up passing to their E, but then again there was Juan, and Igor.

So the alternate scenario was this being stationary till Thursday.

I pray that this is not happening, for the Bahamas sake

You're working overtime on the "it won't move until Thursday" movement. I guess we will find out in the next few hours....

[aperson]

So the alternate scenario was this being stationary till Thursday.

No it wasn't.

[SEASON_CANCELED]

Sure hope Atlantic Canada is keeping an eye on this one. Could still be a very potent storm by the time it makes it's way up there.

Seems like the majority of these storms always end up passing to their E, but then again there was Juan, and Igor.

So the alternate scenario was this being stationary till Thursday.

I pray that this is not happening, for the Bahamas sake

You're working overtime on the "it won't move until Thursday" movement. I guess we will find out in the next few hours....

We will find out

[Vdogg]

The Euro 00z ensembles from 8/29 were the first indications of an OTS scenario while all other guidance and the Euro operational were still showing florida landfalls/getting into the gulf. I also noted how the vast majority of the stronger members were favoring a recurve which was well before Dorian rapidly strengthened. I'll make note to pay close attention to them for future storms that threaten land.

On the flip side, this storm might be the beginning of complacency in the Florida peninsula for the next storm. One day the luck will run out but count your blessings for now.

Just because it misses Florida doesn’t make it an OTS scenario. Most models are showing landfall around Obx. When I think OTS I think about a storm completely missing the CONUS.

[PTrackerLA]

The Euro 00z ensembles from 8/29 were the first indications of an OTS scenario while all other guidance and the Euro operational were still showing florida landfalls/getting into the gulf. I also noted how the vast majority of the stronger members were favoring a recurve which was well before Dorian rapidly strengthened. I'll make note to pay close attention to them for future storms that threaten land.

On the flip side, this storm might be the beginning of complacency in the Florida peninsula for the next storm. One day the luck will run out but count your blessings for now.

Just because it misses Florida doesn’t make it an OTS scenario. Most models are showing landfall around Obx. When I think OTS I think about a storm completely missing the CONUS.

I should have used 'recurve' and not OTS, I realize it may still landfall in North Carolina as it recurves.

[b0tzy29]

Did the models account for almost 6 hours of NO movement? Will this have any implications of Dorian missing that trough that is supposed to scoop it up?

[canes92]

Did the models account for almost 6 hours of NO movement? Will this have any implications of Dorian missing that trough that is supposed to scoop it up?

Yeah I think the Euro did. Not sure about the impacts from the trough.