ATL: KAREN - Remnants - Discussion

[HDGator]

Viequez Island CMAN Station ESPP4 is near the rough center of circulation now.
Pressure is down to 1004.9mb.

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=espp4&uom=M&tz=STN

[NDG]

Viequez Island CMAN Station ESPP4 is near the rough center of circulation now.
Pressure is down to 1004.9mb.

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=espp4&uom=M&tz=STN

It will be interesting, that strong cell will be moving right over the Island over the next few minutes.

[NDG]

Pressure down to 1004mb in Vieques.

[wx98]

So I guess according to radar Karen is making landfall right now in Vieques?

[Aric Dunn]

lucky us.. the center is passing right over that station..

[StruThiO]

[HDGator]

So I guess according to radar Karen is making landfall right now in Vieques?

Looks like it from what I'm seeing on radar. And she still appears to be slowly organizing while the center skips around the east side of PR.
It's going to be interesting to see what she does coming off the north side of the island.
Looking at the sat, it appears the CDO may be moving north over the COC as she gets better organized.
Breaking free of PR may give her the relief to continue organizing like the NHC is forecasting.

[msbee]

We in PR dont view as key if there are 10+ centers but the most important hazard are the flooding rains that have begun with flooding reported and this rainy period will be here thru Wednesday.

https://i.imgur.com/qPZEUDS.jpg

Good luck in PR, Luis. It looks like you are getting pounded right now. Hope the flooding is not too bad

[Aric Dunn]

Here is where it is going.. notice the west winds already switching offshore the north coast. pressure are falling do to up sloping. the center is going to migrate in a arc that way ..

[HDGator]

Here is where it is going.. notice the west winds already switching offshore the north coast. pressure are falling do to up sloping. the center is going to migrate in a arc that way ..


https://i.ibb.co/G3n7pBR/Capture.png

The bands on radar are definitely showing that pull to the NW around PR you've been talking about.

[StruThiO]

set of data from mission into Jerry

[edu2703]

Viequez Island CMAN Station ESPP4 is near the rough center of circulation now.
Pressure is down to 1004.9mb.

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=espp4&uom=M&tz=STN

Now the pressure is down to 1003.8mb

[NDG]

Recon should had gone straight towards Vieques right after it took off from St Croix a few minutes ago to get it over with lol.

[wx98]

These center reformations/relocations have been interesting to follow. As Aric said, it now appears to be heading off to the NW around the main island of PR.

[HDGator]

These center reformations/relocations have been interesting to follow. As Aric said, it now appears to be heading off to the NW around the main island of PR.

The bad part is that it looks like the worst of the rain is still to come for PR. They don't need it.
Prayers for you guys in PR; it looks like you're in store for a lot of rain tonight.

[rbaker55]

Dorians ghost just about the same area where Karen is now

[Aric Dunn]

convection should very quickly start to fire north of PR.

[HDGator]

Viequez Island CMAN Station ESPP4 is near the rough center of circulation now.
Pressure is down to 1004.9mb.

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=espp4&uom=M&tz=STN

It looks like the lowest pressure here during the center pass was 1003.6mb at 6:00pm AST.
It's now back up to 1005.2mb.

It's going to be interesting to see how Karen organizes north of PR with the continued pressure drops.

[CyclonicFury]

Surface obs and recon seem to support a minimum pressure of 1003 mb. This is a stronger circulation than most of the global models depicted at this time, the environment looks favorable for the next few days according to the SHIPS guidance so if it is able to fend off the dry air it has a good chance at survival.

[ColdMiser123]

Recon finds the center just northeast of Vieques. Assuming no center wobbles, likely will miss official landfall in mainland Puerto Rico just to the east, like Dorian.

Unlike Dorian, likely significantly worse impacts from rain across the mainland, and very unfortunate timing as well after a 6.0 earthquake.