WPAC: LEKIMA - Post-Tropical

[euro6208]

Massive hot tower erupted.

[1900hurricane]

Definitely getting its act together.

[mrbagyo]

[TorSkk]

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1909 LEKIMA (1909)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 061500UTC 19.7N 128.1E FAIR
MOVE WNW 06KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
50KT 40NM
30KT 350NM SOUTH 230NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 071500UTC 21.5N 125.9E 50NM 70%
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
45HF 081200UTC 23.6N 123.7E 90NM 70%
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
69HF 091200UTC 25.3N 121.7E 140NM 70%
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT


JMA quite aggresive

[Yellow Evan]

06/1430 UTC 19.8N 128.4E T4.0/4.0 LEKIMA -- West Pacific

[Hayabusa]

Typhoon Lekima

TY 1909 (Lekima)
Issued at 21:40 UTC, 6 August 2019

<Analysis at 21 UTC, 6 August>
Scale Large
Intensity -
Center position N19°40' (19.7°)
E128°00' (128.0°)
Direction and speed of movement Almost stationary
Central pressure 960 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 35 m/s (65 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50 m/s (95 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 110 km (60 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area ALL 500 km (270 NM)

<Forecast for 21 UTC, 7 August>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N21°50' (21.8°)
E125°30' (125.5°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 15 km/h (8 kt)
Central pressure 940 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 40 m/s (80 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60 m/s (115 kt)
Radius of probability circle 90 km (50 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 300 km (160 NM)

<Forecast for 18 UTC, 8 August>
Intensity Very strong
Center position of probability circle N24°10' (24.2°)
E123°05' (123.1°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 15 km/h (9 kt)
Central pressure 935 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 45 m/s (85 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60 m/s (120 kt)
Radius of probability circle 170 km (90 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 390 km (210 NM)

<Forecast for 18 UTC, 9 August>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N26°05' (26.1°)
E121°05' (121.1°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 15 km/h (7 kt)
Central pressure 970 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 30 m/s (60 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45 m/s (85 kt)
Radius of probability circle 260 km (140 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 370 km (200 NM)

<Forecast for 18 UTC, 10 August>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N28°10' (28.2°)
E121°20' (121.3°)
Direction and speed of movement N Slow
Central pressure 975 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 30 m/s (55 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40 m/s (80 kt)
Radius of probability circle 370 km (200 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 460 km (250 NM)

<Forecast for 18 UTC, 11 August>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N31°25' (31.4°)
E122°30' (122.5°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 15 km/h (8 kt)
Central pressure 985 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 23 m/s (45 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (65 kt)
Radius of probability circle 520 km (280 NM)

[Highteeld]

Wouldn't be too shocked if there was a massive RI phase sometime tomorrow. Too bad we don't have SHIPs for the WPAC...

[Highteeld]

[Highteeld]

Eye coming out in BD/VIS

[mrbagyo]

 https://twitter.com/EarthUncutTV/status/1158933473786126337

[1900hurricane]

Looks like it has developed a small core feature. Looks a little fragile, but if it can build around it, there is potential to go up quickly.

[Yellow Evan]

TXPQ26 KNES 070309
TCSWNP

A. 10W (LEKIMA)

B. 07/0230Z

C. 20.6N

D. 127.9E

E. ONE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T4.5/4.5/D1.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...THIS INTENSITY ESTIMATE WAS DERIVED USING 4 KM IR DATA.
B EYE IS EMBEDDED IN LG AND SURROUNDED BY W RESULTING IN A DT OF 4.5
WHICH INCLUDES -0.5 FOR EYE ADJUSTMENT. MET = 4.0 AND PT = 4.5. FT IS
BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL

[Yellow Evan]

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 070300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 10W (LEKIMA) WARNING NR
13//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 10W (LEKIMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 379 NM SOUTH
OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST
FEATURE AND AN INCIPIENT EYE. A 062211Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS A
COMPACT CORE WITH A SMALL MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE, WHICH SUPPORTS THE
INITIAL POSITION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE, AND EXTENSIVE DEEP CONVECTIVE
BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. A 070040Z ASCAT BULLSEYE ALSO
SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION AND SHOWS NUMEROUS 50-55 KNOT WINDS
OVER THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLES. THE UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH NEAR-RADIAL OUTFLOW, LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM SST (30C). THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED AT 70 KNOTS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T4.0 (65 KNOTS) TO T4.5 (77 KNOTS). TY 10W IS
TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
POSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 10W WILL CONTINUE ON ITS CURRENT NORTHWESTWARD TRACK TOWARD
NORTHERN TAIWAN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE STR. NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH A 185NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT
TAU 72 NEAR TAIWAN, THEREFORE, THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE
EXACT FORECAST TRACK WHICH COULD AFFECT THE INTENSITY FORECAST AFTER
TAU 48. TY 10W IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 48 UNDER
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WITH SOME WEAKENING AFTER TAU 48 AS THE SYSTEM
TRACKS NEAR TAIWAN.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TY 10W WILL TURN NORTHWARD AS THE STR REORIENTS
IN A NORTH-SOUTH CONFIGURATION TO THE EAST. STEADY WEAKENING IS
EXPECTED DUE PRIMARILY TO INCREASING FRICTIONAL EFFECTS AS THE
SYSTEM TRACKS NEAR EASTERN CHINA. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE DIVERGES
AFTER TAU 72 AND IS IN POOR AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE (HIGH UNCERTAINTY) IN THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK.//
NNNN

[Tailspin]

Not a TS Someone else needs the ability to able update ie Ryan.

TY 1909 (Lekima)
Issued at 06:50 UTC, 7 August 2019

[Tailspin]

Double post removed

[TorSkk]

A. 10W (LEKIMA)

B. 07/0830Z

C. 21.3N

D. 127.5E

E. ONE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T5.5/5.5/D1.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/SSMI

H. REMARKS...THIS INTENSITY ESTIMATE WAS DERIVED USING 4 KM IR DATA. OW
EYE IS EMBEDDED IN LG AND SURROUNDED BY B RUSLTING IN A DT OF 5.5 WHICH
INCLUDED AN EYE ADJUSTMENT OF +0.5. DT 6 HOUR AVERAGE IS 5.41. MET =
5.0 AND PT 5.5. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

07/0607Z 21.0N 127.7E SSMI

[euro6208]

Not only is peak intensity higher but current intensity looks to be incredibly underestimated.

WDPN31 PGTW 070900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 10W (LEKIMA) WARNING NR 14//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 10W (LEKIMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 336 NM SOUTH OF
KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
THE SYSTEM HAS DEVELOPED A WELL-DEFINED 10-NM EYE AS IT BECAME MORE
COMPACT AND CONSOLIDATED. THE SYSTEM STILL TRAILS A LARGE RAIN BAND
TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE
BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE THAT LINED UP PERFECTLY WITH A SHARPLY
OUTLINED MICROWAVE EYE IN THE 070453Z 36GHZ AMSR2 IMAGE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 85 KNOTS IS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF TIGHTLY
CLUSTERED AGENCY DVORAK FIXES RANGING FROM T4.5/77KTS TO T5.0/90KTS.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
NEAR-RADIAL OUTFLOW, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM SST (30C). TY
10W IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 10W WILL CONTINUE ON ITS CURRENT NORTHWESTWARD TRACK UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF THE STR, PASSING JUST TO THE NORTH OF TAIWAN NEAR
TAU 48 BEFORE TURNING MORE POLEWARD. THE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL
FUEL GRADUAL TO RAPID INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 125 KNOTS BY TAU
48. AFTERWARD, INCREASING VWS AND LAND INTERACTION WILL WEAKEN IT TO
100 KNOTS BY TAU 72 AS IT APPROACHES THE CHINESE COAST. NUMERICAL
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A 155NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS
AT TAU 48 NEAR TAIWAN, LENDING FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF
THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TY 10W WILL TURN NORTHWARD AS THE STR REORIENTS
IN A NORTH-SOUTH CONFIGURATION TO THE EAST. STEADY WEAKENING IS
EXPECTED PRIMARILY DUE TO INCREASING VWS AND LAND INTERACTION AS THE
SYSTEM STRADDLES THE EASTERN CHINESE COAST. BY TAU 120, TY 10W
WILL BE REDUCED TO 60 KNOTS AFTER IT PASSES JUST TO THE EAST OF
SHANGHAI. NUMERICAL MODELS SIGNIFICANTLY DIVERGE WITH AFUM ON THE
LEFT AND NAVGEM ON THE RIGHT MARGIN OF THE ENVELOPE, SPANNING A SWATH
OF OVER 650NM. THEREFORE, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED
PORTION OF THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK THAT IS LAID TO THE LEFT OF
CONSENSUS TO OFFSET THE UNLIKELY NAVGEM SOLUTION DRIVING THE CYCLONE
STRAIGHT INTO THE STR. SINCE THE EVENTUAL TRACK AFFECTS THE PROJECTED
INTENSITY, THERE IS ALSO LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST AT
THE EXTENDED TAUS.//
NNNN

[TorSkk]

Making a run at cat 5, eye clearing out quickly

[euro6208]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.0
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 07 AUG 2019 Time : 090000 UTC
Lat : 21:27:00 N Lon : 127:24:00 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.5 / 944.0mb/102.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.5 5.9 6.0

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 16 km

Center Temp : +7.4C Cloud Region Temp : -67.9C

Scene Type : EYE

Subtropical Adjustment : OFF

Extratropical Adjustment : OFF

Positioning Method : ARCHER POSITIONING

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 1.3T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 166nmi
- Environmental MSLP : 1001mb

Satellite Name : HIM-8
Satellite Viewing Angle : 29.3 degrees

****************************************************