EPAC: BARBARA - Remnants

[Kingarabian]

These large monsoon type systems take more time to develop however,once it begins is liftoff to be a strong one but as I post this,it looks very close to TD.Let's see in the next few hours we have a new ASCAT pass and it nails the area and not miss.

We can see repeated hot towers firing near the COC:


Almost appears that a CDO is forming.

[Chris90]

I'm going to be very surprised if it takes until Monday for this to be designated. It might still be a bit broad and not a perfectly circular LLC, but I think it's deserving. Those hot towers should help improve the circulation further I would think.

[NotSparta]

I can already tell where 94E is going to track

[Kingarabian]

00z GFS dropping or showing less influence of a competing vort. Shows more development through 96 hours.

[cycloneye]

00z GFS dropping or showing less influence of a competing vort. Shows more development through 96 hours.

Also a little bit stronger than in past runs.

[Kingarabian]

00z GFS dropping or showing less influence of a competing vort. Shows more development through 96 hours.

Also a little bit stronger than in past runs.

Takes it to a higher latitude sooner than the other models and starts to quickly weaken it past 120 hours.

[NotSparta]

I liked the GFS initialization, seems a bit strong to me but it's hard to know

[Kingarabian]

I liked the GFS initialization, seems a bit strong to me but it's hard to know

https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/fff118666826e521ba54d0fc7a48024b058f114b9ceef0cd37b5db60fdb25769.png

There's a lot of deep convection around the center. It could be a TS at this point. Hard to tell without recon.

[cycloneye]

100%/100%

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure located about 750 miles southwest of the southwestern
coast of Mexico continue to gradually become better organized.
Environmental conditions are conducive for additional development
and a tropical depression or storm is likely to form on Sunday while
the disturbance moves westward to west-northwestward at about
15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...near 100 percent.

[Chris90]

I liked the GFS initialization, seems a bit strong to me but it's hard to know

Ok, kind of off topic, but I've never seen model output on your site before, so I just went and checked and don't see anything there. Is that something you're working on that you haven't made available yet, or am I missing out because I always use my phone and it isn't available to me on mobile? I really like that model plot though and want access .

[Kingarabian]

100%/100%

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure located about 750 miles southwest of the southwestern
coast of Mexico continue to gradually become better organized.
Environmental conditions are conducive for additional development
and a tropical depression or storm is likely to form on Sunday while
the disturbance moves westward to west-northwestward at about
15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...near 100 percent.

If SAB comes in with 2.0. They should classify TD02E by the next advisory.

[Kingarabian]

SAB came in with 2 0.

Edit: Best track up to 35kts.

[Kingarabian]

00z Euro hours 120-240:

[Chris90]

Continues to look better. She's been getting her act together nicely the past 24 hours.

Also, can anyone tell me quick how to get a gif from imgur embedded in my post? I'm trying to use the [imgur] [/imgur] tag thing with the url copied in between them and it isn't working. Despite being a millennial, I seem to be unable to conquer this particular additive to my posts. I want to be helpful and add images and microwave passes to the discussion, but I can't seem to conquer this particular posting skill.

[Nancy Smar]

Updated: Recent satellite wind data indicate that the area of low
pressure located several hundred miles southwest of the
southwestern coast of Mexico is producing tropical-storm-force
winds but the system currently lacks a closed surface circulation.
Showers and thunderstorms associated with the system continue to
show signs of organization and conditions appear conducive for the
formation of a tropical storm later today while the disturbance
moves westward to west-northwestward at about 15 mph. For
additional information on this low see High Seas Forecasts
issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...near 100 percent.

 https://twitter.com/NHC_Pacific/status/1145249676930637826

[Kingarabian]

Continues to look better. She's been getting her act together nicely the past 24 hours.

Also, can anyone tell me quick how to get a gif from imgur embedded in my post? I'm trying to use the [url][/url] tag thing with the url copied in between them and it isn't working. Despite being a millennial, I seem to be unable to conquer this particular additive to my posts. I want to be helpful and add images and microwave passes to the discussion, but I can't seem to conquer this particular posting skill.

Make sure you're using the link that's specially for BB/Forums. Imgur has a couple of different linking options when you click on the share button.

Anyways a CDO with very cold tops has pretty much formed over the LLC:

[NotSparta]

I liked the GFS initialization, seems a bit strong to me but it's hard to know

https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/fff118666826e521ba54d0fc7a48024b058f114b9ceef0cd37b5db60fdb25769.png

Ok, kind of off topic, but I've never seen model output on your site before, so I just went and checked and don't see anything there. Is that something you're working on that you haven't made available yet, or am I missing out because I always use my phone and it isn't available to me on mobile? I really like that model plot though and want access .

Yes, not finished yet so it's not available. Sorry. Look for it in July or August

[cycloneye]

First advisory on Tropical Storm Barbara at 8 AM PDT

Satellite imagery is indicating that the area of low pressure
located several hundred miles southwest of the southern coast of
Mexico continues to become better organized, and a tropical storm
may be developing. If this trend continues, advisories may be
initiated later this morning on this system as it moves westward to
west-northwestward at about 15 mph. For additional information on
this low see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...near 100 percent.

[Shell Mound]

Given the rapid, incipient development of a potentially compact inner core, low latitude, proximity to high PWATs (in the ITCZ), and very low vertical wind shear, BARBARA could well become far stronger than the dynamical models currently indicate. Obviously, SSTs will be more than sufficiently warm, and oceanic heat content sufficiently deep, to allow for steady to significant deepening over the next few days. The farther southwest BARBARA remains in the short term, the more time it will have to consolidate, since it would remain over the warmest water for a prolonged period, avoiding more stable air to the north. If BARBARA continues to organise at its current rate, then a high-end Category-4 hurricane—perhaps 125 to 135 knots—is not out of the question, before cooler SSTs, a more stable air mass, and stronger vertical wind shear set in. Given climatology, regardless of its exact track, BARBARA is unlikely to be a significant event, in terms of impact(s), in the Hawaiian Islands, though it may become quite strong in the short term.

[cycloneye]

TXPZ21 KNES 301219
TCSENP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (94E)

B. 30/1200Z

C. 10.5N

D. 109.7W

E. THREE/GOES-W

F. T2.0/2.0/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...SHEAR PATTERN CHARACTERIZED BY CIRCULARLY DEFINED CLOUD
LINES WITH THE LLCC LESS THAN 75 NM FROM A LARGE COLD OVERCAST FOR A
DT=2.0. MET=1.0. PT=1.5. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...LEE