ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

[Aric Dunn]

Need a higher sun angle to get a clear picture. But could be two vorts. Very weak far sw and elongated out and larger one to the NE just south of the deep convection.

[cycloneye]

Need a higher sun angle to get a clear picture. But could be two vorts. Very weak far sw and elongated out and larger one to the NE just south of the deep convection.

There has not been a best track update since 00z.

[cycloneye]

As I said the above the 12z one came out.

As of 12:00 UTC Jun 02, 2019:

Location: 19.6°N 94.5°W
Maximum Winds: 20 kt Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 1007 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1009 mb
Radius of Circulation: 120 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 70 NM

[Aric Dunn]

As I said the above the 12z one came out.

As of 12:00 UTC Jun 02, 2019:

Location: 19.6°N 94.5°W
Maximum Winds: 20 kt Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 1007 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1009 mb
Radius of Circulation: 120 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 70 NM

https://i.imgur.com/W2eBOIg.png

Yeah the 12z best track position does not make much sense with the current structure. we will know more in the next couple hours.

ALso the Rapid scan FLoater is up over 91L now.

[NDG]

I have marked L where the weak surface low we have all been tracking and where the NHC placed its latest best track position.
X is where some of us see a stronger mid level circulation developing and where a new surface low may develop as it tracks WNW to NW over the next couple of days before nearing the northern MX coast.

[cycloneye]

FYi,Recon for this afternoon was canceled.

[northjaxpro]

Invest 91L is coming together gradually. Anticyclone is establishing itself over the system and this should develop into a potential TS before landfall within the next 36 to 48 hours.

It will likely be a potential flood threat for Northern MX next week.

[chaser1]

Looks to me like the prior "best track" low might have well opened up, in part due to lack of southerly surface convergence plausibly as a result of a vort center to it's south on the Pacific side (approx. 15.5N & 94.0W). That particular area is presently bursting nicely and the IR does depict some level of turning in what must be a fairly tight low level center. I think the delay in 91L to organize is temporary and has been slowed slightly due to the small Pacific side vorticity, but primarily due to it's own reorganization to the northeast and in better alignment with the mid level low. That, and this new reorganization a bit to the east and north has it better centered under the building anticyclone above. There does appear to be a bit more new convection occurring near and over what was the "best track" low further to the southwest right now but I'm assuming that this feature will likely move close to (or over Mexico) by tomorrow.

Just my take but overall I think that little will change with 91L today but as the prior "best track" low begins to move over land late tomorrow, along with the overall broad gyre causing the Pacific-side vorticity center to also likely move north and inland over land tomorrow as well, then tomorrow evening is when we will begin to see 91L steadily deepen and organize significantly. Good for NHC to cancel the plane today. Save the gas, they'll need it by Tuesday. The way I see it, this will be tagged a T.D. by tomorrow night and a T.S. by midday Tuesday. Wouldn't shock me if it approaches high-end T.S. or even minimal Hurricane status with eventual landfall not too far south of Brownsville.

[TexasF6]

King Euro shows a 28in bullseye just offshore from Mexico. Crazy total, but imagine if that got over land...

[Aric Dunn]

Here is what we have.

There is a very sharp trough axis but it is has a large well pronounced curved inflow and convergence boundary arcing from west to east.

area to watch is south of the convection from earlier and north of that boundary. There is convection building there now ( in red circle) and could help consolidate a llc today.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sun Jun 2 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A broad area of low pressure is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms over the Bay of Campeche. This system is expected to
move slowly northwestward toward the coast of Mexico, and it could
become a tropical cyclone before it moves inland in a day or two.
Regardless of development, the disturbance will likely produce heavy
rainfall over portions of southern and eastern Mexico during the
next few days. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance mission scheduled
for this afternoon has been canceled, however another aircraft will
investigate the disturbance tomorrow afternoon, if necessary.
Interests along the Gulf coast of Mexico should monitor the progress
of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

[AnnularCane]

No mention in the TWO of possible relocation?

[Steve]

This is a pretty cool setup for early June. It happens sometimes though it’s not the typical hybrid situation you often see with eastern biased systems up against fronts. I’m not sure of the origin of the low and whether it would be considered fully tropical. But like wxman said, it could be one of those situations where rain is heaviest on the west side due to the trough digging down behind it. You see that in the mid Atlantic states sometimes. But almost equal chances of the heaviest rain being north of the system as it encounters N Gulf Shear. That means more rain inland than directly on the Gulf Coast toward next weekend if it stays over water or just inland as it hugs the TX coast. Also important is how organized it can get. We’ve seen many many systems near the tx coast intensify and tighten. Could be gale issues on the S/SE TX coasts mid week as a result.

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track at same position as 12z.

As of 18:00 UTC Jun 02, 2019:

Location: 19.7°N 94.5°W
Maximum Winds: 25 kt Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 1007 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1009 mb
Radius of Circulation: 120 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 70 NM

[MississippiWx]

The low pressure area looks to be consolidating a bit more, but the convective pattern is poor. If the low can continue to strengthen, convection will become more organized and give it a shot to develop. Here’s to hoping it brings some rain to the North Gulf Coast. We haven’t seen rain in 3 weeks while mid-90s have been prevalent in late May!!

[cycloneye]

Not concentrated convection yet but there is good rotation going on in the cloud motions.

[NDG]

This is a pretty cool setup for early June. It happens sometimes though it’s not the typical hybrid situation you often see with eastern biased systems up against fronts. I’m not sure of the origin of the low and whether it would be considered fully tropical. But like wxman said, it could be one of those situations where rain is heaviest on the west side due to the trough digging down behind it. You see that in the mid Atlantic states sometimes. But almost equal chances of the heaviest rain being north of the system as it encounters N Gulf Shear. That means more rain inland than directly on the Gulf Coast toward next weekend if it stays over water or just inland as it hugs the TX coast. Also important is how organized it can get. We’ve seen many many systems near the tx coast intensify and tighten. Could be gale issues on the S/SE TX coasts mid week as a result.

Is fully tropical without a question because it originated from the monsoonal trough we have been tracking during past several days from the southern C.A. area. As the usual case with broad monsoonal troughs is taking its sweet time to tighten up.

[Aric Dunn]

there is almost certainly a llc dead center within the convection. a lot of west winds to the south and now easterly winds just north.

[psyclone]

This disturbance looks good, especially considering the calendar. Might we look back at the end of this season and say this was a foreshock to a big year? Very possible. Certainly more so than a system like Andrea IMO. Looks legitimately tropical and with space constraints likely the biggest impediment to development. Hopefully the moisture ends up in a place that needs it...which could be a tall order considering the state of the MS valley this year.

[PTrackerLA]

We need the rain in Lafayette, just not a flooding type rain with the river situation in the state. Last two days we've hit 95 and 96 so far here today it's downright brutal for this early in the summer. No rain at my house for 2 weeks now so things are drying out rapidly.