ATL: DORIAN - Models

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b0tzy29
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#5641 Postby b0tzy29 » Sun Sep 01, 2019 12:52 pm

Blinhart wrote:
tpinnola wrote:Understandably the focus should be on the Bahamas, Florida, Georgia, Carolinas, etc... but this would be a pretty big deal for us coastal New England folks.

https://i.ibb.co/yYp3sYq/Capture.png


I think you need to change the wording from "would" to "could"


Semantics
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#5642 Postby AutoPenalti » Sun Sep 01, 2019 12:53 pm

Blown Away wrote:https://i.imgur.com/52uA0aA.gif

12z Euro Initialized... High Pressure Trend...

The trough seems flatter...
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#5643 Postby tolakram » Sun Sep 01, 2019 12:54 pm

Image
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#5644 Postby b0tzy29 » Sun Sep 01, 2019 12:54 pm

12Z Euro showing a stronger ridge and a weaker trough...
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#5645 Postby LarryWx » Sun Sep 01, 2019 12:55 pm

LarryWx wrote:Looking at the 18Z position on the main 12Z dynamic model runs, the actual position (we're almost at 18Z now) is pretty much dead-on it appears to me. Any other opinions?


Well, that's what I thought until I just saw the 12Z Euro's 18Z position, which is about 30 miles too far NNE. The Euro has it clearly north of that Bahaman island whereas it is really on the northern edge.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#5646 Postby DestinHurricane » Sun Sep 01, 2019 12:55 pm

tolakram wrote:Euro 12z init
https://i.imgur.com/v2D2mdS.png

Why does it initialize at 975? When the models show it initializing as a cat 5 will that make the track more west? I've read on here that stronger storms feel ridges more and are not as easily picked up by troughs.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#5647 Postby Blown Away » Sun Sep 01, 2019 12:56 pm

12z Euro might be more east than 00/06z... Big trough
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#5648 Postby AutoPenalti » Sun Sep 01, 2019 12:56 pm

NE shift from 06z.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#5649 Postby DelrayDude » Sun Sep 01, 2019 12:56 pm

b0tzy29 wrote:12Z Euro showing a stronger ridge and a weaker trough...

How new is this? Then why the shift east?
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#5650 Postby LarryWx » Sun Sep 01, 2019 12:58 pm

AutoPenalti wrote:NE shift from 06z.


Take with a grain. The 6 hour 12Z Euro position (2 PM EDT) is about 30 miles NNE of its actual position at 2 PM EDT.
Last edited by LarryWx on Sun Sep 01, 2019 12:59 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#5651 Postby chris_fit » Sun Sep 01, 2019 12:59 pm

EURO good bit NORTH at 30 hours
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#5652 Postby chris_fit » Sun Sep 01, 2019 1:00 pm

stalling on north end of Grand Bahama at 36
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#5653 Postby AutoPenalti » Sun Sep 01, 2019 1:00 pm

LarryWx wrote:
AutoPenalti wrote:NE shift from 06z.


Take with a grain. The 6 hour 12Z Euro position (2 PM EDT) is about 30 miles NNE of its actual position at 2 PM EDT.

You’re right, I didn’t notice that...
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#5654 Postby sponger » Sun Sep 01, 2019 1:01 pm

Is this going to come down to global modeling versus tropical modeling? I assume tropical has higher resolution?
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#5655 Postby chris_fit » Sun Sep 01, 2019 1:03 pm

at 42 hours, same exact longitude as the 00Z run - just a bit north though - still pretty much stalled
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#5656 Postby tolakram » Sun Sep 01, 2019 1:03 pm

Image
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#5657 Postby b0tzy29 » Sun Sep 01, 2019 1:03 pm

DelrayDude wrote:
b0tzy29 wrote:12Z Euro showing a stronger ridge and a weaker trough...

How new is this? Then why the shift east?



I don't see an east shift at all... if anything its a shift west... these are both valid on Tuesday at noon.

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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#5658 Postby Blown Away » Sun Sep 01, 2019 1:03 pm

Image

12z Euro... 48 hours... Trend... The trough looks like it's motor boating somebody... :lol:
Last edited by Blown Away on Sun Sep 01, 2019 1:04 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#5659 Postby b0tzy29 » Sun Sep 01, 2019 1:03 pm

Must have been posting this as I was :double:
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#5660 Postby MrJames » Sun Sep 01, 2019 1:06 pm

Looks about 50 miles further west at 48hrs
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