ATL: DORIAN - Models

[NDG]

Landfall Playa Linda, to be exact.

[supercane4867]

HRRR still not turning Dorian northward 36hrs out

[ronjon]

12z HWRF the Cape landfall. HMON and HWRF now show same landfall near the Cape.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hwrf&region=05L&pkg=ref&runtime=2019090112&fh=54

[TheStormExpert]

HRRR still not turning Dorian northward 36hrs out

https://i.imgur.com/LQz1V0p.png

I’m pretty sure it was this model that had Matthew three years ago coming ashore in SE or E-Central FL.

[Torgo]

HRRR still not turning Dorian northward 36hrs out

https://i.imgur.com/LQz1V0p.png

I would not use HRRR for hurricane paths. It had Matthew barreling into South Florida at the same time that all the other models had it correctly going up near the coast.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Landfall Playa Linda, to be exact.

https://i.imgur.com/1kpnxFQ.png

Right over the two most historic launch pads in the world: Launch Complex 39A and B.

[BobHarlem]

THE HWRF nails New Smyrna in 63 hours then heads well west inland up to east of Lake City, FL midway to Jacksonville (30-35 nm west of Jax).

Pretty big shift west there folks.

[tolakram]

HMON and HWRF some of the worst for track, HMON takes the bad crown from NOGAPS. These are intensity models.

[MrJames]

12z GFS Ensembles

[NDG]

Just 30 hours ago it was off by a good 50 miles, when and where Dorian starts heading NNW will make a big difference, it will be now casting over the next 24-36 hours.

[ronjon]

THE HWRF nails New Smyrna in 63 hours then heads well west inland up to east of Lake City, FL midway to Jacksonville.

Pretty big shift west there folks.

Yes Bob big shift. Sensing a stronger ridge east of Dorian after the first short wave passes by?

[NCWeatherChic]

Does anyone have a comparison between what models predicted f.e. 24 hours ago, versus where Dorian actually is right now?

On this page, the trends box: http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/tang/tcguidance/al052019/


Wow great post! This actually helps to put things in perspective.
Examples:

GFS
https://i.imgur.com/zoBLOmq.png

Euro
https://i.imgur.com/x6KwCdh.png

Canadian
https://i.imgur.com/a8zsS5e.png

UKMET
https://i.imgur.com/bkNOrlF.png

[LarryWx]

12z GEFS: mean is the furthest east of at least the last 4 runs off FL and GA. Near most of SC not much change and maybe a tad closer upper SC/NC.

[SEASON_CANCELED]

This thing is still moving at 8mph due west... I'm not met but when is this thing supposed to slow down again?

https://media.giphy.com/media/lRjf9bkBOfBt3Jl4BQ/source.gif

Any minute now literally.

The northerly component i thought i saw was clearly not the case ...its still heading west

[ConvergenceZone]

Any predictions on the EURO that's about to run? I predict it stays about the same. Not shift east or west....

[CronkPSU]

Any predictions on the EURO that's about to run? I predict it stays about the same. Not shift east or west....

predictions sure to go wrong...

south at 24 hours, less of a stall, brushes Cape and slams into Charleston

[Blinhart]

Understandably the focus should be on the Bahamas, Florida, Georgia, Carolinas, etc... but this would be a pretty big deal for us coastal New England folks.

https://i.ibb.co/yYp3sYq/Capture.png

I think you need to change the wording from "would" to "could"

[LarryWx]

Looking at the 18Z position on the main 12Z dynamic model runs, the actual position (we're almost at 18Z now) is pretty much dead-on it appears to me. Any other opinions?

[tolakram]

Euro 12z init

[Blown Away]

12z Euro Initialized... High Pressure Trend...