ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[GCANE]

Sea Surface Temps are hotter than usual around the islands.
Could be a factor for intensification.

[Aric Dunn]

3 hot towers. One on the ne side, se and west side rotating around.. only a matter of time now before we see a distinct eye trying pop out. Few hints of it already.

[SFLcane]

Stewart is back...11am should be interesting

[tolakram]

SLIDER floater
https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&z=1&im=60&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=0&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider&sec=mesoscale_02&p%5B0%5D=band_02&x=994.9428100585938&y=966.9639892578125

COD Floater
https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=meso-meso2-02-24-0-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

SLIDER visible
https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&z=3&im=12&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=0&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider&sec=full_disk&p%5B0%5D=band_02&x=14105.669921875&y=8281.22705078125

[GCANE]

3 hot towers. One on the ne side, se and west side rotating around.. only a matter of time now before we see a distinct eye trying pop out. Few hints of it already.

Very evident helicity with them.
Also seeing some associated lightning.
They are layering on top of existing cirrus with distinct gravity waves.
Classic hallmark for intensification.

[HurricaneAndre2008]

Current Intensity Analysis



UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.0
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 26 AUG 2019 Time : 112020 UTC
Lat : 12:00:33 N Lon : 56:52:32 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.4 / 998.5mb/ 53.0kt

[BobHarlem]

Starting to show up on the Barbados radar. Long term recording at http://flhurricane.com/imageanimator.php?460

[USTropics]

Past 100 visible sat frames (1-minute mesoscale):

[GCANE]

This is embedded in a larger scale UL High.
Should see good outflow on the south to west quads.

[Highteeld]

CURRENT ESTIMATE
Date (mmddhhmm): 08260849
SATCON: MSLP = 996 hPa MSW = 56 knots
SATCON Member Consensus: 54.0 knots
Pressure -> Wind Using SATCON MSLP: 62 knots
Distance to Outer Closed Isobar Used is 100 nm
Eye Size Correction Used is 0 knots Source: NA

[Frank2]

This shows the shear just ahead of Dorian - the current flare up is because it's going through an area of lower shear:

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/s ... 000&loop=0

[GCANE]

Archer analysis of center fixes using 85 GHz image algorithms shows CoC north of Operational Track.

[HurricaneAndre2008]

CURRENT ESTIMATE
Date (mmddhhmm): 08260849
SATCON: MSLP = 996 hPa MSW = 56 knots
SATCON Member Consensus: 54.0 knots
Pressure -> Wind Using SATCON MSLP: 62 knots
Distance to Outer Closed Isobar Used is 100 nm
Eye Size Correction Used is 0 knots Source: NA

Enough evidence of 65mph storm.

[Bostonriff]

I doubt we see an eye without the CDO flaring uninterrupted for a good twelve hours or so.

[toad strangler]

Dorian is a small cyclone but she has nothing on TS Marco from 2008. TS winds reach 45 miles from Dorians center. Marco just 11.5. Marco is still the smallest cyclone on record.

[USTropics]

Geocolor imagery with lightning count density overlay:


Src: https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&z=1&im=24&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=90&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&opacity%5B0%5D=1&opacity%5B1%5D=1&opacity%5B2%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&hidden%5B1%5D=1&hidden%5B2%5D=0&pause=20190826122255&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=0&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider&sec=mesoscale_02&p%5B0%5D=geocolor&p%5B1%5D=cira_glm_l2_group_counts&p%5B2%5D=cira_glm_l2_group_energy&x=1052&y=1015

[jconsor]

Microwave images appear to show a partial eyewall.

AL, 05, 201908261020, 30, WSAT, C, , 1200N, 5680W, , 2, , , , 3, , , , , , , , , , , , 3, , , , NHC, SRS, , , , , , , , , WSAT, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , 3, pbo partial 75pct eyewall in 37GHz data

(From https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/fix/fal052019.dat)

[northjaxpro]

Nice CDO establishing itself with Dorian currently. The storm is well structured. The way things are going with this currently, I would not be shocked to see this attain minimal hurricane status as early as this evening.
This small scaled storm is making the most of walling off and shielding against the dry air around it . It has created a nice pocket environment of its own and maximizing it for the time being.

[AutoPenalti]

The larger this becomes, the more it can filter out the dry air by creating a moisture pocket. NHC forecasted Dorian to become a hurricane by Thursday afternoon.

[Weatherboy1]

To me, the biggest development overnight is the notable shift in modeling to the NE down the road. More models seem to suggest Dorian could cross over the eastern end of the island of Hispanola - or miss it entirely. As you can see from the topographical map here, that isn't where the biggest, most-disruptive mountains are located. In other words, a difference of maybe 50-100 miles can make a huge difference in the system's ultimate strength. Certainly paying closer attention here in SE FL given the trends seen over the last 24 hours

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/b/bb/Hispaniola_lrg.jpg