ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[GCANE]

CAPE is actually high in the east Carib.
I am not entirely discounting that Dorian could intensify there.

[abajan]

The southwest of the island has been getting a few showers (some of them heavy) for the last hour or so.

[Aric Dunn]

Curved band building on nw side with overshooting tops.. trying close off that eyewall.

Also a nice buffer of deep convection protecting the core..

[jlauderdal]

I cant believe recon does not fly for another 12 hours.. seems silly.

Da plane, send in da plane...they have a plan and they are sticking to it

[abajan]

I cant believe recon does not fly for another 12 hours.. seems silly.

Any recon reports will be of little help to Barbados at that late stage.

[Aric Dunn]

If you dont have it open.. the sun is rising and the morning meso loop is awesome with all the overshooting tops.

[USTropics]

Like GCANE mentioned earlier, you can see the inflow extended all the way into South America in this loop:

[Highteeld]

If you dont have it open.. the sun is rising and the morning meso loop is awesome with all the overshooting tops.

[AJC3]

From the 5am NHC Discussion:
It should be noted that the GFS and ECMWF have been very consistent in showing Dorian dissipating over the Caribbean Sea.

Did they just ignore the 0z Euro? I guess they are waiting on more consistency, but the latest Euro has anything but dissipation.

No, they did not just ignore the 00Z Euro. By "dissipate", they meant that it ceases to remain a tropical cyclone, not that it completely disintegrates. The high-res 00Z ECM, does in fact, open the circulation up over the NE Caribbean, at around h48 (00Z WED), and then closes it back off just north of Hispanola around h102 (06Z FRI)

[Highteeld]

Probably good for 55 knots next update.

[toad strangler]

Like GCANE mentioned earlier, you can see the inflow extended all the way into South America in this loop:

https://i.imgur.com/MX1wEva.gif

Growing in size somewhat?

[Visioen]

Beautiful DMAX

[Aric Dunn]

There is a warm spot developing in the middle of the curved band.

[ronjon]

Dorian appears to be finding that sweet spot of high oceanic temperatures just east of the windward islands. Would not be surprised if we have a hurricane later today. Combine that with light shear and an expanding convective shield that will eventually diminish the impact of dry midlevel air and it could ramp up even further.

[NDG]

As is it got a little bigger this morning.

[BYG Jacob]

If you dont have it open.. the sun is rising and the morning meso loop is awesome with all the overshooting tops.

https://i.imgur.com/eRUWYvZ.png

Getting the classic comma look

[p1nheadlarry]

CAPE is actually high in the east Carib.
I am not entirely discounting that Dorian could intensify there.

Well relatively speaking the environment does have lower RH than the storm itself, low environmental theta-e will bump CAPE up.

[GCANE]

Tracking into to high oceanic heat in 48 hrs.

[Aric Dunn]

Looks like thenhints of a small eye trying to show itself on the east side of the coldest clouds tops. The 1min meso infrared loop.

[AutoPenalti]

Higher cloud tops should start changing the steering of this storm.