WPAC: HAGIBIS - Post-Tropical

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Re: WPAC: HAGIBIS - Typhoon

#461 Postby Highteeld » Mon Oct 07, 2019 10:18 am

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https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf
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Re: WPAC: HAGIBIS - Typhoon

#462 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Oct 07, 2019 10:45 am

Of course without Recon, we will never know the true intensity of Hagibis. We can only make guesses.
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Re: WPAC: HAGIBIS - Typhoon

#463 Postby 1900hurricane » Mon Oct 07, 2019 11:05 am

 https://twitter.com/1900hurricane/status/1181234607569719297


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Re: WPAC: HAGIBIS - Typhoon

#464 Postby 1900hurricane » Mon Oct 07, 2019 11:08 am

This sounds almost ridiculous to say, especially considering how good an angle Himawari-8 has on the system, but maybe even the 2 km imagery is struggling to pick up the true eye temperature. The off-white area in the eye is only 2x2 pixels right now on the Floater Window, an area of only 16 km**2.

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Re: WPAC: HAGIBIS - Typhoon

#465 Postby Highteeld » Mon Oct 07, 2019 11:10 am

Incredible violence

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Re: WPAC: HAGIBIS - Typhoon

#466 Postby 1900hurricane » Mon Oct 07, 2019 11:30 am

 https://twitter.com/1900hurricane/status/1181245147809492992


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Re: WPAC: HAGIBIS - Typhoon

#467 Postby Highteeld » Mon Oct 07, 2019 11:32 am

Probably the best AVN image I have seen, with that tiny island enveloped by the eye:

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Re: WPAC: HAGIBIS - Typhoon

#468 Postby 1900hurricane » Mon Oct 07, 2019 11:49 am

 https://twitter.com/1900hurricane/status/1181248370989584385


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Re: WPAC: HAGIBIS - Typhoon

#469 Postby 1900hurricane » Mon Oct 07, 2019 12:04 pm

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

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Re: WPAC: HAGIBIS - Typhoon

#470 Postby EquusStorm » Mon Oct 07, 2019 12:22 pm

Legitimately a sickening feeling from a scientific perspective knowing no actual measurements are happening and the intensity is without any doubt underestimated to a ridiculous level. I don't think it's a stretch to say that this could be one of the top 10 or 15 most intense tropical cyclones on record in actuality.
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Re: WPAC: HAGIBIS - Typhoon

#471 Postby Highteeld » Mon Oct 07, 2019 12:26 pm

RMW down to 6 km :eek:
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Re: WPAC: HAGIBIS - Typhoon

#472 Postby 1900hurricane » Mon Oct 07, 2019 12:28 pm

Just a little back of the envelope KZC output using 12Z best track stuff.

>>> l = 16.1
>>> c = 16
>>> r34 = 201
>>> oci = 1002
>>> for v in range (140, 186, 5):
print('%d kt, %.0f mb' % (v, KZC(KZCdP(v, c, r34, l), oci)))


140 kt, 912 mb
145 kt, 906 mb
150 kt, 901 mb
155 kt, 895 mb
160 kt, 889 mb
165 kt, 884 mb
170 kt, 878 mb
175 kt, 871 mb
180 kt, 865 mb
185 kt, 858 mb
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Re: WPAC: HAGIBIS - Typhoon

#473 Postby 1900hurricane » Mon Oct 07, 2019 12:29 pm

 https://twitter.com/CIMSS_Satellite/status/1181222449989521411


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Re: WPAC: HAGIBIS - Typhoon

#474 Postby Cunxi Huang » Mon Oct 07, 2019 1:25 pm

One of my friends wrote a program to output Hagibis eye temperature in time series. As we all can see, the max was as close as 20 C.

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Re: WPAC: HAGIBIS - Typhoon

#475 Postby Highteeld » Mon Oct 07, 2019 1:39 pm

Cunxi Huang wrote:One of my friends wrote a program to output Hagibis eye temperature in time series. As we all can see, the max was as close as 20 C.

https://i.imgur.com/rMhQpwV.png

Yep. Right there around 1030z could have hit 170 knots.
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https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf
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Re: WPAC: HAGIBIS - Typhoon

#476 Postby Highteeld » Mon Oct 07, 2019 1:58 pm

20W HAGIBIS 191007 1800 16.5N 145.0E WPAC 140 915
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Re: WPAC: HAGIBIS - Typhoon

#477 Postby StruThiO » Mon Oct 07, 2019 2:08 pm

Highteeld wrote:20W HAGIBIS 191007 1800 16.5N 145.0E WPAC 140 915


lol!!!
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Re: WPAC: HAGIBIS - Typhoon

#478 Postby 1900hurricane » Mon Oct 07, 2019 2:12 pm

Getting ready for eyewall replacement.

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Re: WPAC: HAGIBIS - Typhoon

#479 Postby Highteeld » Mon Oct 07, 2019 2:13 pm

1900hurricane wrote:Getting ready for eyewall replacement.

https://i.imgur.com/rxiruJ0.jpg

And that would explain the cooling eye. Still incredible it staved off an ERC for as long as it did given the pinhole eye status.
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Re: WPAC: HAGIBIS - Typhoon

#480 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Oct 07, 2019 2:24 pm

If I were to guess the actual intensities at each point:

6 / 1200z - 65 kt, 985 mb
6 / 1800z - 75 kt, 976 mb
7 / 0000z - 120 kt, 936 mb
7 / 0600z - 160 kt, 897 mb (drop of 79 mb / increase of 85 kt in 12 hours)
7 / 1200z - 170 kt, 884 mb (drop of 101 mb / increase of 105 kt in 24 hours)
7 / 1800z - 150 kt, 899 mb
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