WPAC: HAGIBIS - Post-Tropical
Moderator: S2k Moderators
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euro6208
Re: WPAC: HAGIBIS - Typhoon
Does lives even matter? or false information...No recon.................
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euro6208
Re: WPAC: HAGIBIS - Typhoon
000
WTPQ81 PGUM 071157
HLSPQ1
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Super Typhoon Hagibis (20W) Local Statement
National Weather Service TIYAN GU
957 PM ChST Mon Oct 7 2019
...SUPER TYPHOON HAGIBIS CONTINUES TOWARD ANATAHAN ISLAND...
.NEW INFORMATION...
None.
.AREAS AFFECTED...
This local statement provides important information and recommended
actions for people on the Marianas Islands.
.Watches/Warnings...
A Typhoon Warning remains in effect for Tinian, Saipan, Alamagan and
Pagan Islands. Typhoon conditions, including destructive winds of 74
mph or more, are expected around midnight. Damaging winds of 39 mph
or more are occurring.
A Tropical storm warning remains in effect for Guam, Rota and Agrihan.
Tropical storm conditions, including damaging winds of 39 to 73
mph, are expected on Rota and Agrihan before midnight, and Guam
after midnight.
A Flash Flood Warning is in effect for Rota, Tinian and Saipan.
.STORM INFORMATION...
At 7 PM...the center of Super Typhoon Hagibis (20W) was located near
LATITUDE 15.7N...LONGITUDE 147.5E. This was about 125 miles east-
northeast of Saipan. Hagibis was moving west-northwest at 15 mph with
maximum sustained winds of 150 mph.
.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
Super Typhoon Hagibis will continue to strengthen through Tuesday
afternoon. It is forecast to pass very close to Anatahan early
Tuesday morning.
&&
.NEXT UPDATE...
The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in Tiyan around 3 AM...or sooner if conditions warrant.
GUZ003-004-071900-
/O.CON.PGUM.TY.W.4020.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
Tinian-Saipan-
957 PM ChST Mon Oct 7 2019
...Typhoon Warning remains in effect...
...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Remain in safe shelter or sturdy structure away from the ocean until
weather conditions improve Tuesday afternoon. The worse conditions
are expected to occur from midnight to daybreak.
Conserve battery power on the portable radio. Closely monitor
advisories from the National Weather Service and announcements by
local emergency management offices for the latest storm
information.
&&
...Winds...
Damaging northwest winds of 40 to 55 mph will become destructive
at 55 to 70 mph with gusts to 85 mph by midnight. Winds will shift
to the west and then southwest near daybreak and gradually subside
starting Tuesday morning.
...Storm surge and storm tide...
Combined seas will reach 15 to 22 feet by midnight and last
through Tuesday morning, then slowly subside Tuesday afternoon.
Dangerous surf of 17 to 22 feet will continue through Tuesday
afternoon. Inundation of 3 to 4 feet is likely along windward
coasts.
...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
Rainfall of 7 to 9 inches are probable by Tuesday evening. A Flash
Flood Warning remains in effect. See the latest forecast for the
most up to date information.
$$
GUZ002-071900-
/O.CON.PGUM.TR.W.4020.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
Rota-
957 PM ChST Mon Oct 7 2019
...Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect...
...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Remain in safe shelter or sturdy structure away from the ocean until
weather conditions improve early Tuesday afternoon. Damaging winds
will continue through the night into Tuesday morning.
Conserve battery power on the portable radio. Closely monitor
advisories from the National Weather Service and announcements by
local emergency management offices for the latest storm
information.
&&
...Winds...
Damaging west to northwest winds of 40 to 55 mph with gusts to 65
mph continue through Tuesday morning, then shift to the southwest
and gradually subside starting noon Tuesday.
...Storm surge and storm tide...
Combined seas of 8 and 12 feet will build further to between 11 and
15 feet by midnight tonight. Dangerous surf of up to 13 to 16 feet
is expected from midnight through Tuesday morning. Up to 2 feet
of inundation is likely along windward coasts.
...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
Rainfall of 5 to 7 inches are probable by Tuesday evening. A Flash
Flood Warning remains in effect. See the latest forecast for the
most up to date information.
$$
GUZ001-071900-
/O.CON.PGUM.TR.W.4020.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
Guam-
957 PM ChST Mon Oct 7 2019
...Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect...
...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Be ready to go inside safe shelter or sturdy structure away from the
ocean by midnight. Damaging winds are expected after midnight and
will last into Tuesday morning.
Conserve battery power on the portable radio in case commercial power
goes out. Closely monitor advisories from the National Weather
Service and announcements by local emergency management offices
for the latest storm information.
&&
...Winds...
Fresh to strong west winds will become damaging at 35 to 45 mph
with gusts to 55 mph after midnight. These winds will shift to
southwest Tuesday morning and begin to decrease near noon.
...Storm surge and storm tide...
Combined seas will build to between 10 and 15 feet by midnight and
will last through Tuesday morning. Surf will also build to hazardous
levels of 10 to 14 feet by midnight. Around 1 foot of inundation
is probable along windward coasts.
...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
Locally heavy downpours will produce 3 to 5 inches of rain Tuesday
evening. Local urban and low-lying flooding will continue through
the night.
$$
GUZ005-071900-
Alamagan-Pagan-
957 PM ChST Mon Oct 7 2019
...TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...
...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Remain in safe shelter or sturdy structure away from the ocean until
weather conditions improve late Tuesday afternoon. Damaging winds will
become destructive by midnight and will continue through Tuesday
morning before gradually subside Tuesday afternoon.
Conserve battery power on the portable radio. Closely monitor
advisories from the National Weather Service and announcements by
local emergency management offices for the latest storm information.
...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
Combined seas of 15 to 20 feet are expected through Tuesday morning.
Dangerous surf of 17 to 22 feet will continue through Tuesday morning.
3 to 5 feet of inundation is probable along windward coasts.
...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
Heavy rain will continue through Tuesday with 5 to 8 inches of rain
likely by Tuesday evening.
$$
GUZ005-071900-
Agrihan-
957 PM ChST Mon Oct 7 2019
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...
...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Go inside safe shelter or sturdy structure away from the ocean as
soon as possible and remain there through Tuesday afternoon. Damaging
winds are expected by midnight and will last through Tuesday
afternoon.
Conserve battery power on the portable radio. Closely monitor
advisories from the National Weather Service and announcements by
local emergency management offices for the latest storm information.
...WINDS...
Moderate to fresh northeast winds will shift to the east to southeast
and become damaging at 40 to 55 mph with gusts to 65 mph by midnight.
Winds will turn to south to southeast by noon and gradually subside
starting late Tuesday afternoon.
...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
Combined seas will continue to build and reach 12 to 15 feet by
midnight and will last through Tuesday. Dangerous surf of 14 to 17
feet is also expected tonight through Tuesday afternoon. Up to 2 feet
of inundation is probable along windward coasts.
...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
Heavy rainfall will continue through Tuesday with 3 to 5 inches of
rain probable by Tuesday evening.
$$
Chan
WTPQ81 PGUM 071157
HLSPQ1
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Super Typhoon Hagibis (20W) Local Statement
National Weather Service TIYAN GU
957 PM ChST Mon Oct 7 2019
...SUPER TYPHOON HAGIBIS CONTINUES TOWARD ANATAHAN ISLAND...
.NEW INFORMATION...
None.
.AREAS AFFECTED...
This local statement provides important information and recommended
actions for people on the Marianas Islands.
.Watches/Warnings...
A Typhoon Warning remains in effect for Tinian, Saipan, Alamagan and
Pagan Islands. Typhoon conditions, including destructive winds of 74
mph or more, are expected around midnight. Damaging winds of 39 mph
or more are occurring.
A Tropical storm warning remains in effect for Guam, Rota and Agrihan.
Tropical storm conditions, including damaging winds of 39 to 73
mph, are expected on Rota and Agrihan before midnight, and Guam
after midnight.
A Flash Flood Warning is in effect for Rota, Tinian and Saipan.
.STORM INFORMATION...
At 7 PM...the center of Super Typhoon Hagibis (20W) was located near
LATITUDE 15.7N...LONGITUDE 147.5E. This was about 125 miles east-
northeast of Saipan. Hagibis was moving west-northwest at 15 mph with
maximum sustained winds of 150 mph.
.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
Super Typhoon Hagibis will continue to strengthen through Tuesday
afternoon. It is forecast to pass very close to Anatahan early
Tuesday morning.
&&
.NEXT UPDATE...
The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in Tiyan around 3 AM...or sooner if conditions warrant.
GUZ003-004-071900-
/O.CON.PGUM.TY.W.4020.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
Tinian-Saipan-
957 PM ChST Mon Oct 7 2019
...Typhoon Warning remains in effect...
...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Remain in safe shelter or sturdy structure away from the ocean until
weather conditions improve Tuesday afternoon. The worse conditions
are expected to occur from midnight to daybreak.
Conserve battery power on the portable radio. Closely monitor
advisories from the National Weather Service and announcements by
local emergency management offices for the latest storm
information.
&&
...Winds...
Damaging northwest winds of 40 to 55 mph will become destructive
at 55 to 70 mph with gusts to 85 mph by midnight. Winds will shift
to the west and then southwest near daybreak and gradually subside
starting Tuesday morning.
...Storm surge and storm tide...
Combined seas will reach 15 to 22 feet by midnight and last
through Tuesday morning, then slowly subside Tuesday afternoon.
Dangerous surf of 17 to 22 feet will continue through Tuesday
afternoon. Inundation of 3 to 4 feet is likely along windward
coasts.
...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
Rainfall of 7 to 9 inches are probable by Tuesday evening. A Flash
Flood Warning remains in effect. See the latest forecast for the
most up to date information.
$$
GUZ002-071900-
/O.CON.PGUM.TR.W.4020.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
Rota-
957 PM ChST Mon Oct 7 2019
...Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect...
...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Remain in safe shelter or sturdy structure away from the ocean until
weather conditions improve early Tuesday afternoon. Damaging winds
will continue through the night into Tuesday morning.
Conserve battery power on the portable radio. Closely monitor
advisories from the National Weather Service and announcements by
local emergency management offices for the latest storm
information.
&&
...Winds...
Damaging west to northwest winds of 40 to 55 mph with gusts to 65
mph continue through Tuesday morning, then shift to the southwest
and gradually subside starting noon Tuesday.
...Storm surge and storm tide...
Combined seas of 8 and 12 feet will build further to between 11 and
15 feet by midnight tonight. Dangerous surf of up to 13 to 16 feet
is expected from midnight through Tuesday morning. Up to 2 feet
of inundation is likely along windward coasts.
...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
Rainfall of 5 to 7 inches are probable by Tuesday evening. A Flash
Flood Warning remains in effect. See the latest forecast for the
most up to date information.
$$
GUZ001-071900-
/O.CON.PGUM.TR.W.4020.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
Guam-
957 PM ChST Mon Oct 7 2019
...Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect...
...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Be ready to go inside safe shelter or sturdy structure away from the
ocean by midnight. Damaging winds are expected after midnight and
will last into Tuesday morning.
Conserve battery power on the portable radio in case commercial power
goes out. Closely monitor advisories from the National Weather
Service and announcements by local emergency management offices
for the latest storm information.
&&
...Winds...
Fresh to strong west winds will become damaging at 35 to 45 mph
with gusts to 55 mph after midnight. These winds will shift to
southwest Tuesday morning and begin to decrease near noon.
...Storm surge and storm tide...
Combined seas will build to between 10 and 15 feet by midnight and
will last through Tuesday morning. Surf will also build to hazardous
levels of 10 to 14 feet by midnight. Around 1 foot of inundation
is probable along windward coasts.
...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
Locally heavy downpours will produce 3 to 5 inches of rain Tuesday
evening. Local urban and low-lying flooding will continue through
the night.
$$
GUZ005-071900-
Alamagan-Pagan-
957 PM ChST Mon Oct 7 2019
...TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...
...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Remain in safe shelter or sturdy structure away from the ocean until
weather conditions improve late Tuesday afternoon. Damaging winds will
become destructive by midnight and will continue through Tuesday
morning before gradually subside Tuesday afternoon.
Conserve battery power on the portable radio. Closely monitor
advisories from the National Weather Service and announcements by
local emergency management offices for the latest storm information.
...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
Combined seas of 15 to 20 feet are expected through Tuesday morning.
Dangerous surf of 17 to 22 feet will continue through Tuesday morning.
3 to 5 feet of inundation is probable along windward coasts.
...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
Heavy rain will continue through Tuesday with 5 to 8 inches of rain
likely by Tuesday evening.
$$
GUZ005-071900-
Agrihan-
957 PM ChST Mon Oct 7 2019
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...
...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Go inside safe shelter or sturdy structure away from the ocean as
soon as possible and remain there through Tuesday afternoon. Damaging
winds are expected by midnight and will last through Tuesday
afternoon.
Conserve battery power on the portable radio. Closely monitor
advisories from the National Weather Service and announcements by
local emergency management offices for the latest storm information.
...WINDS...
Moderate to fresh northeast winds will shift to the east to southeast
and become damaging at 40 to 55 mph with gusts to 65 mph by midnight.
Winds will turn to south to southeast by noon and gradually subside
starting late Tuesday afternoon.
...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
Combined seas will continue to build and reach 12 to 15 feet by
midnight and will last through Tuesday. Dangerous surf of 14 to 17
feet is also expected tonight through Tuesday afternoon. Up to 2 feet
of inundation is probable along windward coasts.
...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
Heavy rainfall will continue through Tuesday with 3 to 5 inches of
rain probable by Tuesday evening.
$$
Chan
0 likes
-
euro6208
Re: WPAC: HAGIBIS - Typhoon
000
WTPQ61 PGUM 071135
TCUPQ1
Super Typhoon Hagibis (20W) Tropical Cyclone Update
National Weather Service Tiyan GU WP202019
935 PM ChST Mon Oct 7 2019
...903 PM CHST WFO GUAM RADAR POSITION ESTIMATE...
SUMMARY OF 903 PM CHST...1103 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.0N 146.8E
RADAR ELEVATION...0.5 DEGREES...34600 FEET
CENTER CHARACTERISTIC...WELL-DEFINED PIN-HOLE EYE
POSITION CONFIDENCE...GOOD
THIS POSITION IS ABOUT
95 MILES NORTHEAST OF SAIPAN AIRPORT
105 MILES NORTHEAST OF TINIAN AIRPORT
165 MILES NORTHEAST OF ROTA AIRPORT
220 MILES NORTHEAST OF GUAM RADAR
RADAR-DETERMINED MOTION OF THE EYE...
THE PAST HOUR IS 13 KT (15 MPH) TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES.
FOR THE PAST 3 HOURS IS 15 KT (17 MPH) TO THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES.
DISCUSSION
----------
THE EYE HAS TURNED BACK ONTO A WEST-NORTHWEST HEADING WITH THE RECENT
THREE HOUR MOTION AVERAGING TO JUST NORTH OF WEST. THE WELL-DEFINED
EYEWALL REMAINS FULLY IN VIEW AT 34600 FT IN THE 0.5 DEGREE RADAR
TILT. THE EYE IS NOW MOVING INTO A RADAR BEAM BLOCKAGE AREA AND WILL
NOT BE VIEWABLE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
NEXT MESSAGE
------------
THE NEXT RADAR POSITION WILL BE ISSUED IN SEVERAL HOURS...EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING...ONCE THE EYE HAS MOVED TO THE WEST OF THE RADAR
BEAM BLOCKAGE AREA AND CLOSER TO ANATAHAN.
$$
W. AYDLETT
WTPQ61 PGUM 071135
TCUPQ1
Super Typhoon Hagibis (20W) Tropical Cyclone Update
National Weather Service Tiyan GU WP202019
935 PM ChST Mon Oct 7 2019
...903 PM CHST WFO GUAM RADAR POSITION ESTIMATE...
SUMMARY OF 903 PM CHST...1103 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.0N 146.8E
RADAR ELEVATION...0.5 DEGREES...34600 FEET
CENTER CHARACTERISTIC...WELL-DEFINED PIN-HOLE EYE
POSITION CONFIDENCE...GOOD
THIS POSITION IS ABOUT
95 MILES NORTHEAST OF SAIPAN AIRPORT
105 MILES NORTHEAST OF TINIAN AIRPORT
165 MILES NORTHEAST OF ROTA AIRPORT
220 MILES NORTHEAST OF GUAM RADAR
RADAR-DETERMINED MOTION OF THE EYE...
THE PAST HOUR IS 13 KT (15 MPH) TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES.
FOR THE PAST 3 HOURS IS 15 KT (17 MPH) TO THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES.
DISCUSSION
----------
THE EYE HAS TURNED BACK ONTO A WEST-NORTHWEST HEADING WITH THE RECENT
THREE HOUR MOTION AVERAGING TO JUST NORTH OF WEST. THE WELL-DEFINED
EYEWALL REMAINS FULLY IN VIEW AT 34600 FT IN THE 0.5 DEGREE RADAR
TILT. THE EYE IS NOW MOVING INTO A RADAR BEAM BLOCKAGE AREA AND WILL
NOT BE VIEWABLE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
NEXT MESSAGE
------------
THE NEXT RADAR POSITION WILL BE ISSUED IN SEVERAL HOURS...EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING...ONCE THE EYE HAS MOVED TO THE WEST OF THE RADAR
BEAM BLOCKAGE AREA AND CLOSER TO ANATAHAN.
$$
W. AYDLETT
0 likes
-
MB_Vindciator
- Tropical Wave
- Posts: 1
- Joined: Thu Sep 06, 2018 10:15 pm
Re: WPAC: HAGIBIS - Typhoon
Patricia's 700mb eye temp was 32.2°C
Highest ever measured was Typhoon Judy of 1979, 34°C while officially assessed as a 135kt Cat 4, though it was a very similar storm to Hagibis and Patricia in structure and recon found it at below 890mb so this is a major lowball.
https://1900hurricane.wordpress.com/201 ... asons-1979
Highest ever measured was Typhoon Judy of 1979, 34°C while officially assessed as a 135kt Cat 4, though it was a very similar storm to Hagibis and Patricia in structure and recon found it at below 890mb so this is a major lowball.
https://1900hurricane.wordpress.com/201 ... asons-1979
2 likes
Re: WPAC: HAGIBIS - Typhoon
What's galling is there were several instances of Dvorak Technique clearly producing T 7.5 ( and even a few instantaneous 8.0), and got ignored. NESDIS, admittedly, did mention 7.5 was occuring, but were unwilling to bump up their FT due to time constraints (why do this when there is "ERI" going on?). In other words, Dvorak could have been useful last night, but it wasn't really used properly. I get that pinhole eye scenarios are difficult, but there were some really questionable analysis going on from both agencies.
1 likes
Very useful information on the Dvorak Technique --
https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf
https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf
Re: WPAC: HAGIBIS - Typhoon
Would probably guess ~ 170 knots/880 mb occured sometime between 07-11z today.
0 likes
Very useful information on the Dvorak Technique --
https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf
https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf
-
euro6208
Re: WPAC: HAGIBIS - Typhoon
Gives a whole new perspective to Dorian.
Highest dvorak was 6.5 yet recon found 160 knots.
This is much more intense satellite wise and numbers...
Highest dvorak was 6.5 yet recon found 160 knots.
This is much more intense satellite wise and numbers...
0 likes
Re: WPAC: HAGIBIS - Typhoon
Highteeld wrote:Would probably guess ~ 170 knots/880 mb occured sometime between 07-11z today.
Could make a case for it here:
0 likes
Very useful information on the Dvorak Technique --
https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf
https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf
Re: WPAC: HAGIBIS - Typhoon
Highteeld wrote:Highteeld wrote:Would probably guess ~ 170 knots/880 mb occured sometime between 07-11z today.
Could make a case for it here:
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/products/storms/2019WP20/4KMSRBDC/2019WP20_4KMSRBDC_201910071020.jpg
and again:
0 likes
Very useful information on the Dvorak Technique --
https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf
https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf
-
euro6208
Re: WPAC: HAGIBIS - Typhoon
Flash Flood Warning
GUC010-071645-
/O.NEW.PGUM.FF.W.0009.191007T1349Z-191007T1645Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service Tiyan GU
1138 PM ChST Mon Oct 7 2019
The National Weather Service in Tiyan Guam has issued a
* Flash Flood Warning for...
Guam
* Until 245 AM ChST.
* At 1138 PM ChST, Doppler radar indicated torrential rain across
Guam with additional heavy bands of rainfall approaching. Up to
two inches of rain has already fallen in the last two hours. Flash
flooding is expected or already occurring.
Additional rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches are possible on Guam
during the next few hours.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If you must be on the roads during ongoing tropical storm conditions
tonight, turn around, don`t drown when encountering flooded roads.
Most flood deaths occur in vehicles.
A Flash Flood Warning means that flooding is imminent or occurring.
Move to higher ground immediately. Residents living along streams
and creeks should take immediate precautions to protect life and
property.
&&
LAT...LON 1334 14464 1341 14465 1343 14463 1348 14476
1352 14481 1364 14485 1365 14488 1360 14490
1360 14493 1353 14494 1342 14478 1328 14476
1323 14467
$$
Bukunt/W.Aydlett
GUC010-071645-
/O.NEW.PGUM.FF.W.0009.191007T1349Z-191007T1645Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service Tiyan GU
1138 PM ChST Mon Oct 7 2019
The National Weather Service in Tiyan Guam has issued a
* Flash Flood Warning for...
Guam
* Until 245 AM ChST.
* At 1138 PM ChST, Doppler radar indicated torrential rain across
Guam with additional heavy bands of rainfall approaching. Up to
two inches of rain has already fallen in the last two hours. Flash
flooding is expected or already occurring.
Additional rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches are possible on Guam
during the next few hours.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If you must be on the roads during ongoing tropical storm conditions
tonight, turn around, don`t drown when encountering flooded roads.
Most flood deaths occur in vehicles.
A Flash Flood Warning means that flooding is imminent or occurring.
Move to higher ground immediately. Residents living along streams
and creeks should take immediate precautions to protect life and
property.
&&
LAT...LON 1334 14464 1341 14465 1343 14463 1348 14476
1352 14481 1364 14485 1365 14488 1360 14490
1360 14493 1353 14494 1342 14478 1328 14476
1323 14467
$$
Bukunt/W.Aydlett
0 likes
-
euro6208
Re: WPAC: HAGIBIS - Typhoon
000
WTPQ81 PGUM 071157
HLSPQ1
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Super Typhoon Hagibis (20W) Local Statement
National Weather Service TIYAN GU
957 PM ChST Mon Oct 7 2019
...SUPER TYPHOON HAGIBIS CONTINUES TOWARD ANATAHAN ISLAND...
.NEW INFORMATION...
None.
.AREAS AFFECTED...
This local statement provides important information and recommended
actions for people on the Marianas Islands.
.Watches/Warnings...
A Typhoon Warning remains in effect for Tinian, Saipan, Alamagan and
Pagan Islands. Typhoon conditions, including destructive winds of 74
mph or more, are expected around midnight. Damaging winds of 39 mph
or more are occurring.
A Tropical storm warning remains in effect for Guam, Rota and Agrihan.
Tropical storm conditions, including damaging winds of 39 to 73
mph, are expected on Rota and Agrihan before midnight, and Guam
after midnight.
A Flash Flood Warning is in effect for Rota, Tinian and Saipan.
.STORM INFORMATION...
At 7 PM...the center of Super Typhoon Hagibis (20W) was located near
LATITUDE 15.7N...LONGITUDE 147.5E. This was about 125 miles east-
northeast of Saipan. Hagibis was moving west-northwest at 15 mph with
maximum sustained winds of 150 mph.
.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
Super Typhoon Hagibis will continue to strengthen through Tuesday
afternoon. It is forecast to pass very close to Anatahan early
Tuesday morning.
&&
.NEXT UPDATE...
The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in Tiyan around 3 AM...or sooner if conditions warrant.
GUZ003-004-071900-
/O.CON.PGUM.TY.W.4020.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
Tinian-Saipan-
957 PM ChST Mon Oct 7 2019
...Typhoon Warning remains in effect...
...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Remain in safe shelter or sturdy structure away from the ocean until
weather conditions improve Tuesday afternoon. The worse conditions
are expected to occur from midnight to daybreak.
Conserve battery power on the portable radio. Closely monitor
advisories from the National Weather Service and announcements by
local emergency management offices for the latest storm
information.
&&
...Winds...
Damaging northwest winds of 40 to 55 mph will become destructive
at 55 to 70 mph with gusts to 85 mph by midnight. Winds will shift
to the west and then southwest near daybreak and gradually subside
starting Tuesday morning.
...Storm surge and storm tide...
Combined seas will reach 15 to 22 feet by midnight and last
through Tuesday morning, then slowly subside Tuesday afternoon.
Dangerous surf of 17 to 22 feet will continue through Tuesday
afternoon. Inundation of 3 to 4 feet is likely along windward
coasts.
...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
Rainfall of 7 to 9 inches are probable by Tuesday evening. A Flash
Flood Warning remains in effect. See the latest forecast for the
most up to date information.
$$
GUZ002-071900-
/O.CON.PGUM.TR.W.4020.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
Rota-
957 PM ChST Mon Oct 7 2019
...Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect...
...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Remain in safe shelter or sturdy structure away from the ocean until
weather conditions improve early Tuesday afternoon. Damaging winds
will continue through the night into Tuesday morning.
Conserve battery power on the portable radio. Closely monitor
advisories from the National Weather Service and announcements by
local emergency management offices for the latest storm
information.
&&
...Winds...
Damaging west to northwest winds of 40 to 55 mph with gusts to 65
mph continue through Tuesday morning, then shift to the southwest
and gradually subside starting noon Tuesday.
...Storm surge and storm tide...
Combined seas of 8 and 12 feet will build further to between 11 and
15 feet by midnight tonight. Dangerous surf of up to 13 to 16 feet
is expected from midnight through Tuesday morning. Up to 2 feet
of inundation is likely along windward coasts.
...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
Rainfall of 5 to 7 inches are probable by Tuesday evening. A Flash
Flood Warning remains in effect. See the latest forecast for the
most up to date information.
$$
GUZ001-071900-
/O.CON.PGUM.TR.W.4020.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
Guam-
957 PM ChST Mon Oct 7 2019
...Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect...
...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Be ready to go inside safe shelter or sturdy structure away from the
ocean by midnight. Damaging winds are expected after midnight and
will last into Tuesday morning.
Conserve battery power on the portable radio in case commercial power
goes out. Closely monitor advisories from the National Weather
Service and announcements by local emergency management offices
for the latest storm information.
&&
...Winds...
Fresh to strong west winds will become damaging at 35 to 45 mph
with gusts to 55 mph after midnight. These winds will shift to
southwest Tuesday morning and begin to decrease near noon.
...Storm surge and storm tide...
Combined seas will build to between 10 and 15 feet by midnight and
will last through Tuesday morning. Surf will also build to hazardous
levels of 10 to 14 feet by midnight. Around 1 foot of inundation
is probable along windward coasts.
...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
Locally heavy downpours will produce 3 to 5 inches of rain Tuesday
evening. Local urban and low-lying flooding will continue through
the night.
$$
GUZ005-071900-
Alamagan-Pagan-
957 PM ChST Mon Oct 7 2019
...TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...
...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Remain in safe shelter or sturdy structure away from the ocean until
weather conditions improve late Tuesday afternoon. Damaging winds will
become destructive by midnight and will continue through Tuesday
morning before gradually subside Tuesday afternoon.
Conserve battery power on the portable radio. Closely monitor
advisories from the National Weather Service and announcements by
local emergency management offices for the latest storm information.
...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
Combined seas of 15 to 20 feet are expected through Tuesday morning.
Dangerous surf of 17 to 22 feet will continue through Tuesday morning.
3 to 5 feet of inundation is probable along windward coasts.
...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
Heavy rain will continue through Tuesday with 5 to 8 inches of rain
likely by Tuesday evening.
$$
GUZ005-071900-
Agrihan-
957 PM ChST Mon Oct 7 2019
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...
...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Go inside safe shelter or sturdy structure away from the ocean as
soon as possible and remain there through Tuesday afternoon. Damaging
winds are expected by midnight and will last through Tuesday
afternoon.
Conserve battery power on the portable radio. Closely monitor
advisories from the National Weather Service and announcements by
local emergency management offices for the latest storm information.
...WINDS...
Moderate to fresh northeast winds will shift to the east to southeast
and become damaging at 40 to 55 mph with gusts to 65 mph by midnight.
Winds will turn to south to southeast by noon and gradually subside
starting late Tuesday afternoon.
...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
Combined seas will continue to build and reach 12 to 15 feet by
midnight and will last through Tuesday. Dangerous surf of 14 to 17
feet is also expected tonight through Tuesday afternoon. Up to 2 feet
of inundation is probable along windward coasts.
...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
Heavy rainfall will continue through Tuesday with 3 to 5 inches of
rain probable by Tuesday evening.
$$
Chan
WTPQ81 PGUM 071157
HLSPQ1
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Super Typhoon Hagibis (20W) Local Statement
National Weather Service TIYAN GU
957 PM ChST Mon Oct 7 2019
...SUPER TYPHOON HAGIBIS CONTINUES TOWARD ANATAHAN ISLAND...
.NEW INFORMATION...
None.
.AREAS AFFECTED...
This local statement provides important information and recommended
actions for people on the Marianas Islands.
.Watches/Warnings...
A Typhoon Warning remains in effect for Tinian, Saipan, Alamagan and
Pagan Islands. Typhoon conditions, including destructive winds of 74
mph or more, are expected around midnight. Damaging winds of 39 mph
or more are occurring.
A Tropical storm warning remains in effect for Guam, Rota and Agrihan.
Tropical storm conditions, including damaging winds of 39 to 73
mph, are expected on Rota and Agrihan before midnight, and Guam
after midnight.
A Flash Flood Warning is in effect for Rota, Tinian and Saipan.
.STORM INFORMATION...
At 7 PM...the center of Super Typhoon Hagibis (20W) was located near
LATITUDE 15.7N...LONGITUDE 147.5E. This was about 125 miles east-
northeast of Saipan. Hagibis was moving west-northwest at 15 mph with
maximum sustained winds of 150 mph.
.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
Super Typhoon Hagibis will continue to strengthen through Tuesday
afternoon. It is forecast to pass very close to Anatahan early
Tuesday morning.
&&
.NEXT UPDATE...
The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in Tiyan around 3 AM...or sooner if conditions warrant.
GUZ003-004-071900-
/O.CON.PGUM.TY.W.4020.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
Tinian-Saipan-
957 PM ChST Mon Oct 7 2019
...Typhoon Warning remains in effect...
...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Remain in safe shelter or sturdy structure away from the ocean until
weather conditions improve Tuesday afternoon. The worse conditions
are expected to occur from midnight to daybreak.
Conserve battery power on the portable radio. Closely monitor
advisories from the National Weather Service and announcements by
local emergency management offices for the latest storm
information.
&&
...Winds...
Damaging northwest winds of 40 to 55 mph will become destructive
at 55 to 70 mph with gusts to 85 mph by midnight. Winds will shift
to the west and then southwest near daybreak and gradually subside
starting Tuesday morning.
...Storm surge and storm tide...
Combined seas will reach 15 to 22 feet by midnight and last
through Tuesday morning, then slowly subside Tuesday afternoon.
Dangerous surf of 17 to 22 feet will continue through Tuesday
afternoon. Inundation of 3 to 4 feet is likely along windward
coasts.
...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
Rainfall of 7 to 9 inches are probable by Tuesday evening. A Flash
Flood Warning remains in effect. See the latest forecast for the
most up to date information.
$$
GUZ002-071900-
/O.CON.PGUM.TR.W.4020.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
Rota-
957 PM ChST Mon Oct 7 2019
...Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect...
...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Remain in safe shelter or sturdy structure away from the ocean until
weather conditions improve early Tuesday afternoon. Damaging winds
will continue through the night into Tuesday morning.
Conserve battery power on the portable radio. Closely monitor
advisories from the National Weather Service and announcements by
local emergency management offices for the latest storm
information.
&&
...Winds...
Damaging west to northwest winds of 40 to 55 mph with gusts to 65
mph continue through Tuesday morning, then shift to the southwest
and gradually subside starting noon Tuesday.
...Storm surge and storm tide...
Combined seas of 8 and 12 feet will build further to between 11 and
15 feet by midnight tonight. Dangerous surf of up to 13 to 16 feet
is expected from midnight through Tuesday morning. Up to 2 feet
of inundation is likely along windward coasts.
...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
Rainfall of 5 to 7 inches are probable by Tuesday evening. A Flash
Flood Warning remains in effect. See the latest forecast for the
most up to date information.
$$
GUZ001-071900-
/O.CON.PGUM.TR.W.4020.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
Guam-
957 PM ChST Mon Oct 7 2019
...Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect...
...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Be ready to go inside safe shelter or sturdy structure away from the
ocean by midnight. Damaging winds are expected after midnight and
will last into Tuesday morning.
Conserve battery power on the portable radio in case commercial power
goes out. Closely monitor advisories from the National Weather
Service and announcements by local emergency management offices
for the latest storm information.
&&
...Winds...
Fresh to strong west winds will become damaging at 35 to 45 mph
with gusts to 55 mph after midnight. These winds will shift to
southwest Tuesday morning and begin to decrease near noon.
...Storm surge and storm tide...
Combined seas will build to between 10 and 15 feet by midnight and
will last through Tuesday morning. Surf will also build to hazardous
levels of 10 to 14 feet by midnight. Around 1 foot of inundation
is probable along windward coasts.
...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
Locally heavy downpours will produce 3 to 5 inches of rain Tuesday
evening. Local urban and low-lying flooding will continue through
the night.
$$
GUZ005-071900-
Alamagan-Pagan-
957 PM ChST Mon Oct 7 2019
...TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...
...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Remain in safe shelter or sturdy structure away from the ocean until
weather conditions improve late Tuesday afternoon. Damaging winds will
become destructive by midnight and will continue through Tuesday
morning before gradually subside Tuesday afternoon.
Conserve battery power on the portable radio. Closely monitor
advisories from the National Weather Service and announcements by
local emergency management offices for the latest storm information.
...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
Combined seas of 15 to 20 feet are expected through Tuesday morning.
Dangerous surf of 17 to 22 feet will continue through Tuesday morning.
3 to 5 feet of inundation is probable along windward coasts.
...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
Heavy rain will continue through Tuesday with 5 to 8 inches of rain
likely by Tuesday evening.
$$
GUZ005-071900-
Agrihan-
957 PM ChST Mon Oct 7 2019
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...
...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Go inside safe shelter or sturdy structure away from the ocean as
soon as possible and remain there through Tuesday afternoon. Damaging
winds are expected by midnight and will last through Tuesday
afternoon.
Conserve battery power on the portable radio. Closely monitor
advisories from the National Weather Service and announcements by
local emergency management offices for the latest storm information.
...WINDS...
Moderate to fresh northeast winds will shift to the east to southeast
and become damaging at 40 to 55 mph with gusts to 65 mph by midnight.
Winds will turn to south to southeast by noon and gradually subside
starting late Tuesday afternoon.
...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
Combined seas will continue to build and reach 12 to 15 feet by
midnight and will last through Tuesday. Dangerous surf of 14 to 17
feet is also expected tonight through Tuesday afternoon. Up to 2 feet
of inundation is probable along windward coasts.
...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
Heavy rainfall will continue through Tuesday with 3 to 5 inches of
rain probable by Tuesday evening.
$$
Chan
0 likes
Re: WPAC: HAGIBIS - Typhoon
Just to save for the archives... man, that is one hell of a mean looking storm.
0 likes
Very useful information on the Dvorak Technique --
https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf
https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf
-
euro6208
Re: WPAC: HAGIBIS - Typhoon
Winds getting stronger on Guam. Rain coming down hard...
Saipan, Tinian, and Rota obs stopped hours ago unfortunately.
0 likes
-
euro6208
Re: WPAC: HAGIBIS - Typhoon
Looks like the eye and eyewall will be passing over Anatahan very shortly...
0 likes
Re: WPAC: HAGIBIS - Typhoon
Highteeld wrote:Just to save for the archives... man, that is one hell of a mean looking storm.
https://i.imgur.com/mzZplJR.png
about as good as it gets...
2 likes
Very useful information on the Dvorak Technique --
https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf
https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf
Re: WPAC: HAGIBIS - Typhoon
1 likes
Very useful information on the Dvorak Technique --
https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf
https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf
-
mrbagyo
- Category 5
- Posts: 3715
- Age: 33
- Joined: Thu Apr 12, 2012 9:18 am
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- Contact:
Re: WPAC: HAGIBIS - Typhoon
Sorry, these are RIDGE graphics only
1 likes
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to RSMC, NHC and NWS products.
Re: WPAC: HAGIBIS - Typhoon
Guam's radar picking some eyewall returns over 50,000 feet AGL!
1 likes
Very useful information on the Dvorak Technique --
https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf
https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf
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