ATL: NESTOR - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[cycloneye]

I can't post the missions as I am busy so for almost an hour I am asking in the recon thread for any volunteer(s) I will deleite the recon thread if there is no interest.

[Ubuntwo]

No surprise that the recon found the h70 CoC further north than where the surface CoC is.

yeah, with the shear at that level... also no sign of pressure drops up that way so no reformation occurring. center still south.

No sign of pressure drops? Extrapolated pressure of 1002mb at the MLC recon just flew through, whereas the LLC was at around 1000mb. The MLC is also further under the convection so pressure will likely continue to drop there. Models have shown this relocation NE for days.

[Aric Dunn]

No surprise that the recon found the h70 CoC further north than where the surface CoC is.

yeah, with the shear at that level... also no sign of pressure drops up that way so no reformation occurring. center still south.

No sign of pressure drops? Extrapolated pressure of 1002mb at the MLC recon just flew through, whereas the LLC was at around 1000mb. The MLC is also further under the convection so pressure will likely continue to drop there. Models have shown this relocation NE for days.

DROPSONDE to the NE was 1009 mb at the surface.. they are flying at 10k feet.

no surface pressure drops to the NE = no relocation.. means models are still wrong except the UKMET>

[Ubuntwo]

yeah, with the shear at that level... also no sign of pressure drops up that way so no reformation occurring. center still south.

No sign of pressure drops? Extrapolated pressure of 1002mb at the MLC recon just flew through, whereas the LLC was at around 1000mb. The MLC is also further under the convection so pressure will likely continue to drop there. Models have shown this relocation NE for days.

DROPSONDE to the NE was 1009 mb at the surface.. they are flying at 10k feet.

no surface pressure drops to the NE = no relocation.. means models are still wrong except the UKMET>

https://i.ibb.co/CWFvmP5/Capture.png

That dropsonde is well east of the new MLC, in your screenshot you can see the wind shift at the end of the flight. That is where the MLC and associated pressure drop is. Look at the dramatic downward spike in extrapolated pressure.

[Aric Dunn]

and no.. that is not a center pass to the north by recon again.. they climbed to 20k feet and there is obviously a windshift from the mid level shear..

161300 2700N 08844W 6966 03153 0036 +101 +057 246002 003 032 000 00
161330 2700N 08847W 6961 03158 0039 +100 +058 274004 005 032 000 00
161400 2700N 08849W 6962 03157 0038 +101 +054 168001 005 030 001 00
161430 2700N 08851W 6964 03156 0040 +098 +063 135006 006 029 000 00
161500 2700N 08854W 6962 03157 0043 +094 +074 145004 007 029 000 00
161530 2700N 08856W 6800 03355 0046 +084 +061 095005 007 031 000 00
161600 2700N 08859W 6569 03643 0029 +083 +026 268003 005 029 000 00
161630 2700N 08901W 6298 03992 0012 +073 -008 318011 014 030 000 00
161700 2700N 08903W 6063 04302 0023 +046 -013 311016 017 030 000 00
161730 2700N 08906W 5850 04591 0028 +024 -026 289019 021 030 000 00
161800 2700N 08908W 5714 04779 0022 +014 -026 260014 016 029 000 00
161830 2700N 08910W 5615 04923 0034 -000 -035 259016 017 031 000 00
161900 2700N 08912W 5452 05158 0225 -012 -054 263021 025 031 001 00
161930 2700N 08915W 5263 05436 0241 -017 -136 263026 027 030 001 00
162000 2700N 08917W 5126 05646 0254 -033 -229 258029 031 030 001 00
162030 2700N 08919W 4990 05858 0267 -042 -278 253031 033 031 000 00
162100 2700N 08921W 4896 06007 0276 -048 -302 247026 028 029 000 00
162130 2700N 08923W 4838 06099 0282 -053 -315 244024 025 028 000 00
162200 2700N 08926W 4764 06218 0290 -062 -322 245022 023 029 000 00
162230 2700N 08928W 4686 06350 0300 -073 -327 250024 026 029 000 00
162300 2700N 08931W 4651 06411 0306 -076 -323 252026 027 029 001 00
162330 2700N 08933W 4649 06417 0309 -068 -317 256026 027 028 001 00
162400 2700N 08936W 4647 06421 0311 -062 -327 256028 029 029 000 00
162430 2700N 08939W 4648 06419 0310 -061 -332 257028 029 029 000 00

[wxman57]

Surface obs suggest a weak center west of the central Gulf Buoy near 25.8N / 90W. Pressure about 1002mb. Center is even farther from the convection than a couple hours ago. The only significant winds are in the convection well east of the weak LLC, and they're blowing away from the center. Not a formula for strengthening. Note, too, that FL wind directions are way different from surface obs. That weak center recon found near 27N is aloft. Nothing there at the surface.

[cycloneye]

FYI= There is a recon thread to post all about the missions,I see many,many recon posts here.

[Aric Dunn]

FYI= There is a recon thread to post all about the missions,I see many,many recon posts here.

Yes, but they are to show position and movement.. just using the recon data for analysis.

[CrazyC83]

I've been so busy this week...but what a weird system. In some ways reminds me of Earl in 1998.

[cycloneye]

I've been so busy this week...but what a weird system. In some ways reminds me of Earl in 1998.

Thank you for posting in the recon thread.

[CrazyC83]

I've been so busy this week...but what a weird system. In some ways reminds me of Earl in 1998.

Thank you for posting in the recon thread.

You're welcome. I'll try to keep up as much as I can.

[northjaxpro]

I've been so busy this week...but what a weird system. In some ways reminds me of Earl in 1998.

The number one thing I remembered the most from Earl in 1998 was the fact that storm became a hurricane without truly having a well defined eyewall. It still is to this day one of the most unusual and atypical cyclones I had tracked through.my years in this business. A true and blue overachiever of a storm if you ever saw one for sure!!

[Aric Dunn]

I've been so busy this week...but what a weird system. In some ways reminds me of Earl in 1998.

The number one thing I remembered the most from Earl in 1998 was the fact that storm became a hurricane without truly having a well defined eyewall. It still is to this day one of the most unusual and atypical cyclones I had tracked through.my years in this business. A true and blue overachiever of a storm if you ever saw one for sure!!

Then Berry this year... literally a exposed center the entire time lol. but a hurricane

[CrazyC83]

I wonder if 26.6N 89.6W is a true center? The wind shift and pressure drop while the plane was descending is very suspicious.

[wxman57]

Any weak LLC is still west of the central Gulf Buoy. Pressure about 1002mb. Quite sheared.

[northjaxpro]

Plus, Earl was a Cat 2 cyclone on top of that craziness as well.

[Aric Dunn]

I wonder if 26.6N 89.6W is a true center? The wind shift and pressure drop while the plane was descending is very suspicious.

on sat you can clearly see a swirl there. rotating around.

[CrazyC83]

I wonder if 26.6N 89.6W is a true center? The wind shift and pressure drop while the plane was descending is very suspicious.

on sat you can clearly see a swirl there. rotating around.

It may be a MLC though at 700-850mb.

[NDG]

Wow, not the type of wx to be out on the deck of this cruise ship.

Tides and Currents Weather Stations Pressure Air Temp Water Temp Dewpoint Dewpoint Depression Visibility Wind Speed Wind Dir Waves Ship Positions



Fantasy
Operator: Carnival Cruise Lines

Last reported at 2019-Oct-18 15:00 UTC. Time now 2019-Oct-18 17:14 UTC.
Position N 24°42' W 088°54'.

Type: Ship. MMSI: 353486000.

Wind from 200 at 45 knots

Barometer 999.6 mb

[Aric Dunn]

I wonder if 26.6N 89.6W is a true center? The wind shift and pressure drop while the plane was descending is very suspicious.

on sat you can clearly see a swirl there. rotating around.

It may be a MLC though at 700-850mb.

hard to say on any of them.. the bouys and ships are the best data we have right now. they are showing to the south still. hopefully recon can resolve this.