ATL: IMELDA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[1900hurricane]

https://twitter.com/1900hurricane/status/1174359403723706373
https://twitter.com/1900hurricane/status/1174360702796140544

I posted this this morning. Unfortunately, it looks like it's well on its way to verifying.

[StormLogic]

https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&z=5&im=18&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=100&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=0&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider&sec=full_disk&p%5B0%5D=band_13&x=7343&y=4744

it's firing up

[1900hurricane]

 https://twitter.com/1900hurricane/status/1174525067054735365

[stormlover2013]

https://twitter.com/1900hurricane/status/1174525067054735365

Has that model been consistent ?

[StormLogic]

https://twitter.com/1900hurricane/status/1174525067054735365

Has that model been consistent ?

WRF been very consistent and been trending this for days.

[jasons2k]

Geez that’s just awful for our friends in Beaumont and surrounding areas. Time for prayers.

[StormLogic]

[StormLogic]

[StormLogic]

[StormLogic]

[StormLogic]

Nam is real bullish on this happening within 12 hrs

[StormLogic]

Geez that’s just awful for our friends in Beaumont and surrounding areas. Time for prayers.

im sweating right now

[1900hurricane]

https://twitter.com/1900hurricane/status/1174525067054735365

Has that model been consistent ?

Yes. HREF is actually an ensemble of high resolution CAMs consisting of the HRRR, 3 km NAM, WRF NMMB, WRF ARW, and WRF NSSL. SPC compiles it twice a day, at 00Z and 12Z. It's actually really novel. I've been tracking its verification for this event and it has been doing rather well. I posted this in the morning initially:

 https://twitter.com/1900hurricane/status/1174360702796140544

[StormLogic]

Once again the night before this is dead and everyone is going to sleep, too lately informed public wakes up to havoc. 95% of them have no clue.

[1900hurricane]

 https://twitter.com/1900hurricane/status/1174533120483348480

[Steve]

Once again the night before this is dead and everyone is going to sleep, too lately informed public wakes up to havoc. 95% of them have no clue.

Hopefully no water yet?

[1900hurricane]

 https://twitter.com/Wxmanms1/status/1174528818146680832

[StormLogic]

I seen there's a tornado approaching SW Jefferson County on radar... i think i can hear this im not even kidding

[jabman98]

That's been happening all day.

Some people are talking about leaving as the water is very close to entering homes.

I've heard reports of houses flooding in China and Lumberton, but I cannot confirm this. Some people in China said it's worse than Harvey. Somehow, China was one of the areas that fared best during Harvey.

Been thinking about you. Hope you are still doing okay. Please stay safe.

Thinking of all of you dealing with this storm.

[1900hurricane]

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0865
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1145 PM EDT Wed Sep 18 2019

Areas affected...Southeast TX...West-Central to Southwest LA

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 190345Z - 190900Z

SUMMARY...Tropical Depression Imelda continues is lifting very
slowly northwest across eastern Texas. Extremely heavy rainfall
and a threat of significant flash flooding will continue
overnight.

DISCUSSION...As of 03Z (10PM EDT), the center of Tropical
Depression Imelda was positioned just west of Luftkin, TX and is
drifting very slowly off to the northwest. The latest radar
imagery continues to show an axis of very strong convection with
extremely heavy rainfall rates around the southern and eastern
flanks of the circulation, with an emphasis over the last few
hours on parts of Chambers, Jefferson, Liberty and Orange
counties. In fact, the latest MRMS rainfall rates over parts of
Jefferson county have been on the order of 3 to 4 inches/hr over
the last couple of hours.

The latest GOES-16 IR satellite imagery has been showing some
additional cooling and expansion of very cold convective tops,
including convection developing farther west across the northern
suburbs of Houston. An examination of surface and VWP data suggest
an axis of stronger low-level forcing/convergence setting up in a
west/east fashion across the northern suburbs of Houston and
extending east to the Beaumont-Port Arthur area where convection
is already well-organized and generating extremely heavy rainfall.
Strong instability and deep tropical moisture is pooled along and
just south of this convergence axis and will be facilitating
additional convective development overnight with a strong signal
for back-building and training cell activity.

The latest 00Z HREF suite of guidance and runs of the HRRR support
additional rainfall totals through 09Z of as much as 4 to 8 inches
across eastern TX with a strong focus on parts of Chambers and
especially Jefferson counties. Areas of Liberty county will also
need to be strongly monitored for extreme rainfall as well given
the training/back-building set-up. Significant to life-threatening
flash flooding is expected across portions of these counties
overnight.

Elsewhere, some of the heavy rainfall may edge into parts of
west-central and southwest LA, but the dominant focus is expected
remain over portions of southeast and eastern TX, including the
northern suburbs of Houston and over to the Beaumont-Port Arthur
area.

Orrison

ATTN...WFO...HGX...LCH...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON 31789392 31459348 30879323 30339333 29829372
29639470 29779547 29949585 30219592 30259533
30289461 30599444 30979472 31309494 31579486
31779449